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That’s the question on everybody’s mind right now across baseball. In the wake of Shohei Ohtani signing with the Dodgers, Yamamoto is the consensus No. 1 free agent still on the board and someone whose stock is soaring. As a pitcher making the leap from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), Yamamoto has yet to prove himself in the Major Leagues, but his combination of youth (25 years old), track record in high-level competition and pure stuff has attracted a bevy of deep-pocketed suitors.
As we wait for Yamamoto to make his decision — he’s been meeting with interested teams — MLB.com gathered a group of writers to draft his top eight destinations. The key question here: Which clubs need him the most? (While all 30 teams would benefit from adding Yamamoto to their rotations, the focus here was on those who have been reported as serious contenders for his services.)
It’s not like the Yankees haven’t made a big move already this winter, obviously, because we hear that Juan Soto is supposed to be pretty good. It would be hard to characterize any winter where you add Soto as a disappointing one, and yet … there’s a little feeling of now-or-never to the 2024 Yankees. Soto can be a free agent following the season; Gerrit Cole is 33; Aaron Judge will be 32 in April. There are only so many years left where you can expect Cole and Judge to be at their peak levels, especially at the same time, and it remains possible that Soto is a one-and-done player in the Bronx. Given the amount of pitching they’ve traded away in deals for Soto and Alex Verdugo this year, the Yankees are essentially in a position where Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes Jr. both have to be healthy and productive, a tall ask given how their 2023 seasons went. You don’t trade for a year of Soto without doing everything you can to win, and adding Yamamoto wouldn’t just help now and in the future. It would make clear that the Yankees are The Yankees, again.
As you may have heard, the Giants need (but have had trouble acquiring) stars. While the club deserves credit for its sensational 2021 campaign (107-55), San Francisco has not finished above .500 or made the playoffs in any other season since 2016. This is a roster filled with quality big leaguers, it’s just that few of them reasonably project to produce at a significantly above-average level. Seeing Shohei Ohtani go to the arch-rival Dodgers was a major blow, but the Giants responded by taking a big swing in signing Korean center fielder Jung Hoo Lee (aka Grandson of the Wind), a player with some much-needed upside. It’s also clear that they can’t stop there. Yamamoto is the biggest piece remaining on the free-agent market, and while Logan Webb has established himself as a legitimate No. 1 starter in San Francisco, the team’s rotation as a whole only projects to be a middle-of-the-pack group at present. (Veterans Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani are coming off major injuries, and prospects Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn are relatively unproven.) Yamamoto would be a massive upgrade here, boosting the Giants’ present and future playoff hopes and helping to bring some good vibes back to a franchise that could really use them right now.
This pick is as much about the Mets on an existential level as it is about their on-field product. With so many other deep-pocketed clubs in the mix for Yamamoto, including the crosstown-rival Yankees, owner Steve Cohen absolutely needs to win this bidding war to maintain the aura surrounding him. When Cohen bought the team, his purchase came with the unspoken promise that his riches would be able to woo any star the Mets desired, provided the player didn’t have any reservations about playing in New York (like Shohei Ohtani reportedly did). Losing the Yamamoto sweepstakes would challenge that perception. Of course, the Mets also have an obvious need for Yamamoto on the mound, even if they aren’t planning to make a big push toward contending until 2025. Their current starting staff consists of Kodai Senga, José Quintana, Luis Severino, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi, and Senga is the only one signed to a guaranteed deal beyond next season. There will be some excellent starters available in free agency next year as well, but none of them will offer the same level of upside as the 25-year-old Yamamoto does right now.
After the drama of the Ohtani sweepstakes, the Blue Jays could still make out as big winners this winter if they can get Yamamoto. He’s no consolation prize. The Blue Jays are already playoff contenders, but imagine how long they could be playoff contenders with a core trio of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (24 years old), Bo Bichette (25) and Yamamoto (25). The fact that Yamamoto is as young as Vlad Jr. and Bichette is huge. He can be the rock of the rotation that the Blue Jays thought they had in Alek Manoah before his fiasco of a 2023 season. If Manoah ever bounces back, though — he’s only 25, too — that core trio in Toronto becomes a core quartet. As for 2024, Yamamoto would create an immediate Cy Young-caliber 1-2 punch with Kevin Gausman, balancing out a Toronto roster that already boasts a deep playoff-caliber lineup. And for good measure, Yamamoto would also be the Blue Jays’ answer to the Yankees’ blockbuster trade for Juan Soto in a powerhouse AL East division.
Speaking of L.A. … The Dodgers are trying to set up a dynasty. They have the bats: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and now Shohei Ohtani. What they don’t have — yet — is an equivalent superstar core on the pitching side. They’re almost there, with Tyler Glasnow’s arrival in Hollywood and the promise of Ohtani’s return to two-way superstar status in 2025. But that one last ace-caliber arm would cement L.A. as the team to beat for years to come. Clayton Kershaw is in his twilight and there’s no guarantee he even pitches for the Dodgers next season. Walker Buehler will be a free agent next year. Yamamoto can take on the mantle. Yamamoto was already the Kershaw of Japan, with his Sawamura Awards, MVPs and Triple Crowns. Now, he can be the next Kershaw for the Dodgers. Yamamoto has the potential to be the Dodgers’ long-term ace in a way even Glasnow and Ohtani don’t, since he’s four years younger than Ohtani and five years younger than Glasnow.
Boston entered the offseason determined to improve a rotation that posted the ninth-highest ERA (4.68) in the Majors in 2023. But more than two months since their season came to an end, the Red Sox staff looks exactly the same, with Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck making up their projected starting five. Meanwhile, the decision to trade Mookie Betts to the Dodgers in 2020 still hangs over this organization like a dark cloud, especially after Boston just traded one of the key pieces of its return package, Alex Verdugo, to the rival Yankees. The Red Sox need a big win in free agency to appease a hungry fan base and show that the Craig Breslow era is going to be different than Chaim Bloom’s tenure running the team’s baseball operations. Boston has been linked to many other free-agent arms, but nothing would move the needle as much as winning the Yamamoto sweepstakes.
While the Cubs were connected heavily to Yamamoto earlier in the offseason, some more recent reports have pumped the brakes on that idea as his market has escalated. But while Chicago may no longer be as realistic a landing spot for Yamamoto as other cities, he still stands out as a strong fit for a club looking to find its way back to the top of a winnable NL Central. Remember, the Cubs are coming off an 83-win season, and may lose two key free agents, Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman. (Trade Deadline acquisition Jeimer Candelario already signed with division rival Cincinnati.) Much like the Giants, this is a team with some solid pieces in place that nonetheless needs to add impact talent to the top of the roster. Per FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, the Cubs — under new manager Craig Counsell — currently feature one of MLB’s top 60 position players and one of its top 80 pitchers in terms of projected WAR. Its rotation ranks 20th in that regard and lacks a starter with the demonstrated ability to miss bats and pile up K’s. Yamamoto could be that guy and serve as the next cornerstone at Wrigley Field.
The Phillies didn’t take any chances when Aaron Nola reached free agency, re-signing him to a seven-year deal that makes it possible that he’ll spend his entire career in Philadelphia. If they do absolutely nothing else this winter, they should be a strong and competitive team in 2024. But quickly looming behind Nola is the fact that Zack Wheeler is entering the final year of his own contract, which makes his status an ongoing topic of discussion for the upcoming season. Signing Yamamoto would give the Phils a three-headed ace-like situation that might push them ahead of Atlanta as the favorites to take the East in 2024, and it would provide insurance against not only Wheeler’s potential departure, but also lessen the pressure somewhat on the talented prospect trio of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter and Griff McGarry. The Phillies don’t need Yamamoto as much as some other clubs on this list. It doesn’t mean they don’t need him.
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