Trusting Falcons this fantasy football season hasn’t paid off much. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
The year is almost over. The fantasy season is almost over. Just four teams are left standing in most standard formats. It’s winning time.
I’ll be working on the usual post-mortem look-backs in a few weeks, but we’re going to tease a little bit of that today. The assignment here is very simple: why are you still alive in your fantasy playoffs? What have been the keys to your success? What’s been important to focus on, and what’s been impossible to ignore?
Some of the basic answers are evergreen — you’ve survived because you’re smart and diligent, and because you’re lucky at times. But let’s get a little deeper than that.
You survived because you faded Arthur Smith
No team has thrown as much recent draft capital at offensive skill players like the Falcons have — Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson were all top-eight selections over the last three years.
And it appears Smith has no idea how to maximize the talents of any of these guys.
Sure, part of the story is about Desmond Ridder’s limitations at quarterback, but Smith hasn’t found ways to prioritize and unlock his most talented players. It’s possible, perhaps even likely, the Falcons will have a new coach next year, seeking to fix this disappointing offense.
You survived because you believed in Mike McDaniel
In McDaniel’s first year helming the Dolphins, Miami finished 11th in yards and sixth in points. This year, they’re first in both categories. Tyreek Hill has been a smash, Raheem Mostert the shocking breakthrough of the year and Tua Tagovailoa at least a par at quarterback. It’s been less consistent sailing with Jaylen Waddle, but he hasn’t been bad. Rookie RB De’Von Achane has also flashed, here and there.
You survived because you scout quarterbacks better than the Panthers
Carolina went with Bryce Young as the No. 1 overall pick, and although Young isn’t surrounded by much talent, it looks like that pick might be a generational mistake. C.J. Stroud hit the ground running with a fantastic rookie season in Houston, and he’s helped elevate Nico Collins, Noah Brown and Devin Singletary to recurring fantasy relevance.
You survived because you grabbed Rams early in the waiver process
Puka Nacua was the biggest winner from Week 1 (10-119-0), and he validated that game with a 15-147-0 detonation against the Niners the next week. His production has been a little less juicy when Cooper Kupp has been available, but Nacua has maintained starting cred all year.
The Kyren Williams breakout didn’t happen until October, but it’s been glorious — he’s scored touchdowns in 8-of-11 starts and has a silly 126 touches over his last five weeks. Bell cows are almost dead in the NFL, but Williams is a rare exception. Every primary NFC contender should be praying the Rams don’t make the playoffs.
You survived because you stayed young at running back
There are always going to be occasional exceptions — Raheem Mostert goes down as the outlier of the year. But if you made it a priority before the season to avoid running backs entering the dangerous 28-and-up seasons, you would have avoided a lot of inconsistent or flat-out messy seasons: Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook and Jamaal Williams come to mind. Derrick Henry has been inconsistent and obviously went nowhere in Week 15.
Let’s be fair about this — the running back position is always a minefield, and any early pick you made here was more likely to go bad than run good. But it’s still a good idea to skew younger at this key position.
You survived because you avoided Ohio State receivers
I don’t blame anyone who proactively targeted Garrett Wilson — I sure did — and there was no way of knowing Aaron Rodgers would get hurt on the first series of the year. But Chris Olave and Terry McLaurin came with warning signs over the summer, as the Saints were hoping Derek Carr could overcome a lousy 2022 season (he hasn’t) and the Commanders were pinning their hopes on unproven Sam Howell. Ironically, Howell has been a decent fantasy player, despite his real-life imitations. But he’s yet to show any real rapport with McLaurin.
Seattle rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba hasn’t been a fantasy smash either, though the depth of that offense always capped his upside (more on Seattle in a minute).
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Full transparency: there’s no reason why OSU receivers can’t be productive in the pros; this nugget is likely more a cute coincidence than anything actionable for the future. I don’t blame any of these guys for their down years, and I’m expecting Marvin Harrison Jr. will have a fun career, too. It’s just an interesting coincidence that so many of the Buckeyes had tricky runouts in 2023.
You survived because you were fickle with D/ST selections
Luck is undeniably a big part of D/ST scoring, but you are more likely to find that luck when you pick on an appropriate matchup. Consider the Cowboys, the runaway No. 1 D/ST team thus far in Yahoo scoring. They’ve put up some monster weeks, usually when facing an overmatched opponent (Giants, Jets, Patriots, Panthers, Commanders). The Pokes have also put up some stinkers, scoring negative points against the 49ers and Seahawks, and hardly charting against the Eagles and Chargers. It was probably prudent to cut Dallas in most leagues a few weeks ago, mindful of this Seattle/Philadelphia/Buffalo/Miami gauntlet.
Pick on the weak opponents. Never view any D/ST as a matchup-proof entity.
You survived because you were open-minded to rookie tight ends
Mostly this is a nod to Sam LaPorta, who ranks eighth on the Yahoo MVP List, the players who show up most often on Yahoo’s top 500 public teams. But Dalton Kincaid has also given us some usable weeks, and there have been a few fantasy appearances from Michael Mayer and the Green Bay tight ends.
You survived because you faded Geno Smith
Nobody expected Smith to duplicate his magical 2022 breakout, but I figured he could keep most of that production. That’s been the wrong answer. Maybe it’s been Seattle’s cluster injuries at the offensive line, maybe it’s been mostly regression, maybe Smith is just finding his true talent level. But if you recognized in the summer that he was a dangerous player to trust, it likely steered you away from disappointing seasons by DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
You survived because your quarterback is mobile
There are a few exceptions to this rule — Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy are sitting at QB3/QB4 despite limited rushing, and pocket QB Jared Goff sits at QB9. But many of the smashes at the position are the runners: Josh Allen (QB1), Jalen Hurts (QB2) and Lamar Jackson (QB5) are up there, Sam Howell’s (QB7) oddly relevant season has been boosted by five rushing touchdowns.
What’s left on the clipboard?
Maybe you survived because you picked Christian McCaffrey over Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase; staying healthy is a beautiful thing . . . Maybe you survived because your opponents miraculously scored poorly against you in most weeks . . . Maybe you stole a few extra wins because you found Brandon Aubrey or Dustin Hopkins as waiver-wire kickers . . . Maybe you survived through great trading . . . Maybe it was a Niners stack, or a Lions stack or an Eagles stack . . . Maybe you realized Rashee Rice was the signal in the Kansas City receiver room, but everyone else was just noise . . . Maybe you targeted Rachaad White, the running back hero from the RB dead zone.
As always, any strategy works if you pick the right players.
All that matters is that you’re still here. Early in 2024, we’ll try to go deeper into what happened, why it happened, and what we can learn from it all. For now, let’s focus on two more weeks of good decisions. Let’s get you where you need to go.
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