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The Steelers had gone five years without a losing streak of at least four games until dropping four straight in 2022. They’re now staring at the possibility of two consecutive seasons with a losing skid of four games.
Pittsburgh dropped three straight games to the Cardinals, Patriots and Colts, all bad losses for different reasons. The first two came against opponents that had won only two games all season until facing Pittsburgh. The last defeat came to another team in the AFC wild-card race.
Before that losing streak, the Steelers beat the Bengals in Jake Browning’s first NFL start. Since then, the Bengals have rattled off three straight wins to surge past their rivals. The two teams will meet again, this time in Pittsburgh, and it will be Mason Rudolph making his first start of the season.
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Saturday’s game is of the utmost importance for Pittsburgh. The AFC playoff picture is loaded with teams that are at least two games above .500 at present, all ahead of the Steelers. Losing to Cincinnati — one of those teams up on Pittsburgh — could be the final nail in Pittsburgh’s season and end its hopes of making it to the playoffs and throw Mike Tomlin’s incredible streak of going .500 or better every year as a head coach in jeopardy.
Here’s a look at the Steelers’ playoff chances heading into Saturday’s game.
Steelers playoff picture
The Steelers head into the Saturday matchup currently in the 10th spot in the AFC playoff picture with a 7-7 record.
Seed Team Record 1 Ravens 11-3 2 Dolphins 10-4 3 Chiefs 9-5 4 Jaguars 8-6 5 Browns 9-5 6 Bengals 8-6 7 Colts 8-6 8 Texans 8-6 9 Bills 8-6 10 Steelers 7-7 11 Broncos 7-7
Regardless of what happens Saturday, the Steelers are guaranteed to have the tiebreaking edge over the Bengals. They will finish no worse than splitting the season series with Cincinnati, and the Bengals are already guaranteed to have the worst divisional record in the AFC North.
This is where it starts to get problematic for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has faced three non-division foes in the wild-card race: the Texans, Jaguars and Colts. It has lost all three games. That’s three tiebreakers that would all go against Pittsburgh.
If Pittsburgh somehow managed to wind up tied with Cleveland, the two would likely either look at divisional record or conference record. Pittsburgh could finish with a better AFC North record if it beats Cincinnati and Baltimore and Cleveland loses to Cincinnati in the last week of the season. If their divisional records are also tied at the end of the year, it would go to conference tiebreakers. Cleveland currently has the edge 6-3 to Pittsburgh’s 5-5 AFC record. The Browns have three conference games left against the Texans, Jets and Bengals. Pittsburgh has two conference games left in the Bengals and Ravens.
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Steelers remaining schedule
The Steelers have a brutal schedule the rest of the season. Per Sporting News’ projection model, the Steelers are underdogs in each of their remaining games, including massive underdogs against the Ravens in the final week of the season.
Week Opponent Steelers’ win odds 16 vs. Bengals 41% 17 at Seahawks 38.9% 18 at Ravens 9.8%
It’s possible the Ravens might be resting starters in the final week of the season if they already have the No. 1 seed in the AFC locked up and decide not to risk injury, in which case the Steelers would likely get a bit of a boost, particularly if they’re playing for their playoff lives.
But ending the year facing three teams all with playoff aspirations, with two of them coming on the road, is a tough way to end the campaign.
Steelers playoff chances
Per Sporting News’ projection model, the Steelers have a 4.5 percent chance of reaching the playoffs.
Here’s a look at the playoff odds without the Ravens and Chiefs, who are both all but guaranteed to win their respective divisions.
Team xW-L Div% WC% Playoff% Dolphins 12-5 78.2% 21.6% 99.9% Jaguars 10-7 59.0% 28.8% 87.8% Browns 10-7 3.0% 72.5% 75.4% Bills 10-7 21.8% 41.3% 63.1% Texans 10-7 20.5% 41.8% 62.3% Colts 10-7 20.5% 37.2% 57.7% Broncos 9-8 0.6% 25.5% 26.1% Bengals 10-7 0.0% 23.1% 23.1% Steelers 8-9 0.0% 4.5% 4.5%
Sporting News’ model is currently projecting Tomlin’s streak of seasons at .500 or better will end in 2023, projecting an average win-loss record of 8-9. It also envisions the Steelers as by far the least likely playoff team to reach the postseason of the teams at 7-7 or better still left in the wild-card hunt.
The biggest problem for Pittsburgh really is that schedule and already being behind most of the other contenders. It would require multiple meltdowns by other teams down the stretch to get Pittsburgh all the way back in the picture. And most other teams have an easier schedule to wind down the year.
Here’s how other AFC wild-card foes rank in opponents’ win percentage the rest of the season:
Team Opponents Win Percentage Dolphins Cowboys, Ravens, Bills .690 (1) Steelers Bengals, Seahawks, Ravens .619 (t-4) Bengals Steelers, Chiefs, Browns .595 (7) Texans Browns, Titans, Colts .524 (t-14) Browns Texans, Jets, Bengals .500 (t-17) Colts Falcons, Raiders, Texans .476 (t-19) Bills Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins .429 (24) Broncos Patriots, Chargers, Raiders .333 (t-29) Jaguars Buccaneers, Panthers, Titans .333 (t-29)
Among those teams only the Dolphins, who are currently leading the AFC East at 10-4, have a harder schedule to end the year than Pittsburgh, which ends the year facing teams with a combined winning percentage of .619.
The path is looking narrow for Pittsburgh. That’s not to say there isn’t some magic left in this season. But for the Steelers to have any realistic chance, they have to start by beating the Bengals on Saturday.
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