Chiefs-Bills divisional round odds, picks, how to watch: Expert selections, best bets for AFC playoff showdown

Just five teams remain in the NFL playoffs, after the Baltimore Ravens routed the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers held off the Green Bay Packers on Saturday, and then the Detroit Lions beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Sunday’s early game. Now only one divisional-round game remains, and it’s a great one: Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Bills.

As we do every week, we’ve collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more. Ready? Let’s jump in.

All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.

Which picks can you make with confidence in the divisional round? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.

Chiefs at Bills

Time: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)  
Open: Bills -2.5, O/U 46

“Fading the Chiefs as an underdog in the playoffs doesn’t feel great! But this isn’t quite as much about Kansas City as it is about Buffalo and it sort of being THEIR TIME. Gabe Davis, Taylor Rapp, Christian Benford and Baylon Spector were all ruled out Friday so we could see this moneyline dip towards the Chiefs a little bit more. I think this is an incredible game between the two best teams in the AFC over the last five years, the third installment of an intense playoff battle between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. I’m not saying the Bills are “due” or anything but they’re getting Mahomes on their own turf this time and this defense has been playing substantially better. I guess I’m a little worried they feel like they *have* to win this game, but Buffalo has been in playoff mode for over a month now. They get the job done in a close, epic game (on CBS and streaming on Paramount+).” — Pick Six Podcast host Will Brinson on why he is taking the Bills to beat the Chiefs. To see his other divisional round best bets, click here.

SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has been the go-to source when it comes to betting Chiefs games. He is 31-20 (+875) on his last 51 against the spread picks in games involving Kansas City, so anyone who has been following him as been way up. As for this game against Buffalo, Hartstein is leaning Under the point total, but has a strong opinion on the spread, which you can find on SportsLine.

“I said before the playoffs started that folks are sleeping on the Chiefs and I’m not shying away from that here as they travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Andy Reid’s team is getting great play from its defense that effectively shut out the high-flying Dolphins outside of a lone deep touchdown to Tyreek Hill in the first half. Offensively, Patrick Mahomes continues to be smart with the football, they are getting a stellar rushing attack from Isiah Pacheco, and the emergence of Rashee Rice could be the biggest X factor of the playoffs in the AFC. They continue to do things that are conducive to playoff success but aren’t exactly being looked at with the same terror as former Chiefs teams, which I believe is a mistake. Buffalo has played well down the stretch, but the Bills also let teams hang around a bit. Even though they beat the Steelers by double digits, it was a one-possession game early in the fourth quarter. Sure, Mason Rudolph couldn’t fully spring Pittsburgh to a win in that setting, but Mahomes is an entirely different animal even if he is playing on the road for the first time in his playoff career. Also, the issues Buffalo had in the kicking game last week — a blocked field goal and a missed 27-yarder by Tyler Bass — are also on my radar. I think K.C. guts out a close win and advances to the AFC Championship.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan explaining why he sees the Chiefs pulling off the upset in Buffalo. To read his other picks, click here.

“The crazy thing about these two teams is that the Bills have actually beaten the Chiefs pretty regularly, but no one remembers those wins, because they always happen in the regular season. The Bills have won three straight regular season game against Kansas City, but they’ve lost two straight playoff games to the Chiefs. 

“So is this finally going to be the year where they get over the hump? Ever since the 13-second game, it seems like the Bills have been building their roster with one purpose only: To beat the Chiefs. Everything the Chiefs do well, the Bills are built to neutralize it. When it comes to stopping the pass, the Chiefs defense surrendered the fourth-fewest yards in the NFL this year and a big reason for that is because they racked up 57 sacks, which was the second-highest total in the league. The problem there for Kansas City is that Josh Allen is good at avoiding sacks, he can run if he has to and he thrives when he’s forced to go off-script. 

“… Another layer of drama here is that this will be the first true ROAD game of Mahomes’ career.

The past five meetings between these two teams have been played in Kansas City, but this one is being played in Buffalo and I think that’s going to be the difference. In a city where the fans jump off snow drifts on to flaming tables, they might set the entire stadium on fire if the Bills win. Please don’t set your stadium on fire, Bills fans, because you might need it to host the AFC Championship, at least if my Texans-Ravens prediction turns out to also be true.” — CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech explaining why the Bills will take down the Chiefs to advance to the AFC Championship. To see his other picks, click here.

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