Daily poll updates confirms Zuma’s MK is election’24 gamechanger

In this fascinating interview, the DA’s Election’24 campaign manager Greg Krumbock shares insights from the party’s historically accurate polling process, which taps voter opinion daily. Among numerous other conclusions, the numbers confirm SRF’s Frans Cronje’s assertion that the re-entry of Jacob Zuma into the political fray guarantees South Africa is heading for an era of coalition politics after the watershed national election expected before the end of May. Krumbock spoke to BizNews editor Alec Hogg.

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Relevant timestamps from the interview

01:45 – Jacob Zuma entry supporting MK party against ANC
03:05 – What are the polls showing the EFF?
05:21 – Confrontation between two parties
07:34 – What is the PA polling nationally?
08:31 – Presumably polls will be lower in the Western cape
09:26 – Are there any smaller parties that are doing better?
11:09 – According to the board figures the IFP will lose it’s supporters to the MK party
12:50 – What is the research showing at the moment?
14:01 – MK coming with high percentages perhaps
14:17 – Action SA seems to be quite
15:16 – By the entry of MK has it made things easier or harder?
17:02 – The date of the elections
17:54 – Conclusion

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Edited transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___

Alec Hogg: Well, various polls are currently underway, showing significant differences in the predicted outcomes for the 2024 election. The election is expected to take place on May 29th. Greg Krumbock, from the Democratic Alliance, joins us. Your polls have been consistently accurate, Greg, given the nature of your political party.

Greg Krumbock: Absolutely, Alec. Good afternoon. Our internal polling has a reliable track record. On election night, we can call results within the margin of error, often within 1%. With the first few hundred results from the IEC, we can narrow it down to 0.1%. Accurate polling is crucial for understanding the electorate and planning effectively for a successful election.

Alec Hogg: A lot has happened recently, particularly with Jacob Zuma’s support for uMkhonto weSizwe against the ANC. How is this impacting your party’s share of the vote?

Greg Krumbock: MK, Jacob Zuma’s new party, is a game changer, polling around 9% nationally and even higher in specific regions like Pozun and Natal. This shifts dynamics significantly, potentially preventing any party from securing more than 30% in those regions. The ANC’s expected recovery now faces a challenge, and the ANC might fall below 40%, marking a significant outcome for South Africa.

Alec Hogg: What are your polls indicating for EFF support levels?

Greg Krumbock: Most polls, including ours, show the EFF’s support between 9% and 12%. While some outliers exist, the majority agree on this range. MK’s emergence is affecting both the ANC and the EFF, as both parties appeal to marginalised segments. We anticipate the EFF finishing between 10 and 12%.

Alec Hogg: Recent by-elections, especially in the Western Cape, have seen the Patriotic Alliance’s substantial growth. How is this affecting your party, and are they taking votes away from you?

Greg Krumbock: The PA’s impact is nuanced. They concentrate resources selectively, focusing on coloured areas. In local circumstances like George, they consolidate votes from various parties, which worked in their favour. However, replicating this nationwide may be challenging, especially in predominantly Black voting districts. Our polling aligns with other independent companies, and it’s essential to analyse trends over time rather than focusing on individual by-elections.

Alec Hogg: So, what are the Patriotic Alliance’s national and Western Cape polling numbers?

Greg Krumbock: Overall, the PA’s support is diverse, with higher numbers in coloured communities. Their concentration in the Western Cape yields better results, but their overall support in the province is lower. However, this strategy may not translate as successfully across the entire country with its diverse voting demographics.

Alec Hogg: Nationally, if it’s only 5% in the Western Cape, you’d presume it’ll be even lower.

Greg Krumbock: Yes, it will be, around about half of that most of the time. Generally, smaller parties have a one percent either way around their norm. So most of the time, the PAs are on to half percent on a national basis. It’s not a major player on a national stage, but in key municipalities in the Western Cape, they do have an influence where they are concentrated.

Alec Hogg: What about other smaller parties like Action SA? Are any performing better than most polls suggest?

Greg Krumbock: Most small parties, including the ones you mentioned, don’t reach the 1% threshold in our polls. It’s challenging for new parties to do well in their first election. They need time to establish a footprint, work out their values, and gain ground over many years. While they may start with enthusiasm, competing against larger parties in the election often leads to a quick disappearance.

Alec Hogg: Moving on to KwaZulu-Natal, where MK has strength and the IFP has been performing well. Is the IFP losing support to Jacob Zuma’s new party?

Greg Krumbock: Our research aligns with Frans Cronje’s, with slight differences due to the time span. MK’s emergence is affecting all parties, with most now dropping to around 25%. The ANC is consistently close to the 40% mark, while the DA is tracking in the higher 20s. The multi-party charter, including Action SA, faces challenges as new parties need time to establish themselves nationwide.

Alec Hogg: How has MK’s entry affected the path to victory for the multi-party charter?

Greg Krumbock: MK is taking votes off the ANC, causing uncertainty and disillusionment within the ANC’s ranks. This may depress the ANC’s turnout, creating an opportunity for the multi-party charter to gain support. The recent voter registration shift in areas where the DA and charter partners have been strong is noteworthy. The date for the election is yet to be announced, but late May seems likely.