BNC#6: Steenhuisen – Why Election’24 SA’s chance to break 30-year political deadlock

Alec Hogg and John Steenhuisen had a riveting interview after the DA leader’s hard-hitting keynote speech at BNC#6, delving into South Africa’s upcoming election chaos. The pair discussed the potential for socialist dominance, ANC discord, and the critical role of voter turnout. With global parallels and looming financial implications, this discussion is a must-watch for anyone invested in South Africa’s future.

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Edited transcript of the discussion between John Steenhuisen and BizNews editor Alec Hogg that followed the DA leader’s keynote address to the 6th BizNews Conference, held in Hermanus from March 12-14, 2024. ___STEADY_PAYWALL___

Alec Hogg: Considering the current projections and the Brenthurts Foundation poll, the socialists appear to be headed for a majority. If the electorate views the election as binary, as the investment community does, could this lead to potential fragmentation within South Africa? This is pertinent as we will be discussing potential Western Cape independence in detail at this conference.

John Steenhuisen: Turnout will be critical in the upcoming election, determining which party can mobilize voters effectively. An ANC-EFF-MK coalition is a concerning possibility that should motivate all democracy supporters to vote. Should socialists prevail, South Africa could face significant challenges, particularly in international finance. Post-election, if we can’t establish a multiparty government, we’ll need to reconvene the Multi Party Charter and strategize to avert a worst-case scenario. There are divisions within the ANC, especially between those aligning with Zuma and others who reject an EFF partnership due to the potential for an EFF-led takeover. The pre-election period will reveal much about these dynamics.

Alec Hogg: With the internal discord in the ANC, especially regarding Zuma, could there be a situation where the socialist parties don’t unite and one of them might instead ally with your party?

John Steenhuisen: Aligning with socialists would impede our ability to implement necessary reforms. It’s improbable for an MK-backed ANC to collaborate with a Ramaphosa-led ANC, as his ousting would likely be a condition of MK support. The demands by MK for key portfolios would be significant. Post-election, parties will assess the electorate’s decision and their options. I still believe in the Multi-Party Charter’s success before 2029, despite scepticism. Without change, the possibility of not having an election in 2029 is real, as seen in other regions where similar forces have gained power. We don’t have clear policies from the MK; they are likely to follow Zuma’s legacy. The EFF’s seven pillars are clear, but the broader implications are not. This election is unprecedented in 30 years – it’s completely open, and the Multi-Party Charter coalition must act decisively, as our country’s very future depends on it.

Alec Hogg: We’re going to have our first BizNews conference in London on the 15th of May, so within two weeks of the election. There’s a large community there that’s very interested from a financial perspective. What would your message be to them regarding this binary election outcome? Clearly, it’s binary. A MPC victory would likely to result in a flood of investment into South Africa, but not if the opposite occurs. What do you say to the foreign contingent?

John Steenhuisen: I’d say that this is a pivotal election for South Africa. Both local and international investors see it as potentially the last opportunity for the country to switch from the current trajectory of low growth, high debt, and unemployment to one of hope, opportunity, and prosperity. If the ANC, supported by Mk Mk, accelerates towards a failed state, it’ll be one type of accelerant. If the ANC wins with just under 50% and gets propped up by minor parties, we won’t see a policy shift, leading to a slower decline. We need real, tough reforms, not soft measures. The biggest failure of the New Dawn is that it didn’t translate grand ideas into legislative action. Without radical changes, we can’t address the root causes of our problems.

Alec Hogg: What do you ask for South Africa when you’re in deep reflection?

John Steenhuisen: Despite the challenges, I’ve never been more hopeful about South Africa’s future. There’s a real opportunity to break the political stalemate that’s been present for the last 30 years. The political landscape is changing, with coalition politics becoming more prominent. The clear choice for voters in this election and the record number of new voter registrations indicate an energized electorate. The current state of disarray presents an opportunity for restructuring. The opposition parties are now collaborating on solutions to the country’s pressing issues. It’s essential for people to vote to see the change.

Alec Hogg: Is there anything from the seismic changes in global politics that can be applied to South Africa’s next election?

John Steenhuisen: Absolutely. Social media does not represent the electorate. If it did, we’d see very different leaders globally. Examples like the political shift in Poland, where an opposition alliance was able to overcome a dominant party, give us hope. It’s proof that change can come through the ballot box. Every aspect of life is influenced by politics, and people are starting to realize that with issues like load-shedding reaching into their homes. We’re at a point where the choices are stark—we continue down the path of failure or choose a new direction of hope and unity. Change won’t come by keeping the same decision-makers at the helm.

Alec Hogg: John, looking north to what occurred in Zambia and Malawi where seemingly insurmountable challenges were overcome, leading to unexpected electoral outcomes—do you sense a similar shift in South Africa? Is there a disconnect between what pollsters show and the actual sentiment on the ground?

John Steenhuisen: Polls are indeed just a momentary glimpse, but the trends they show are key. They consistently depict the ANC’s decline and the rise of the opposition, which is significant. The election of Hichilema in Zambia serves as proof that change is possible. A pivotal factor there was the substantial presence of international observers, who quickly affirmed the election outcome, preventing behind-the-scenes manipulations. I’ve witnessed similar dynamics in Kenya. This underscores the importance of foreign observer missions, particularly when a ruling party may be desperate to maintain power. The recent blunder by the ISS, leaking confidential party lists, showcases internal factional struggles and the necessity of having many observers to ensure election integrity, much like the pivotal role they played in Zambia and Kenya.