Alec Hogg: A rational perspective of Election’24 – and what to watch for

A 21% jump in Special Votes and near trebling of the out-of-country votes provides clear evidence of a surge in interest around Election’24. In this special broadcast, we hear from two Smart Alecs – the Financial Times’s foreign editor Alec Russell and his namesake, BizNews editor Alec Hogg. The FT looks at the global relevance while BizNews looks at the math via data drawn from the 2019 and 2021 election to conclude that surprises aplenty are in store when the results are counted.

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Full script by Alec Hogg ___STEADY_PAYWALL___

The day millions of South Africans have awaited has finally arrived. There’s a feeling reminiscent of April 26, 1994, with teams of reporters from global media converging on the country as they did when Apartheid ended.

Alec Russell

We kick off this episode with our partners at the Financial Times of London. Alec Russell, their foreign editor, posed a couple of questions to ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa during the president’s campaign this week. This was the top story on this morning’s FT News Briefing podcast hosted by Marc Filippino…

With that background, let’s take a rational perspective and consider the key issues to look out for today.

First, Election ’24 is expected to reverse the decline in voter turnout. In 1994, nearly 20 million people voted – a unique process, so the percentage cannot be compared with subsequent registered voter shares.

In 1999, when only registered voters could participate, just over 16 million people voted, almost 90% of those registered. This steadily fell, hitting a new low of 66% in 2019.

There was a steep decline in voters for the 2021 local elections, with 5.5 million fewer voters than in 2019, dropping turnout to just 44%. The ANC was the biggest loser.

This raises an important issue. Even in 2019, ANC voters were losing confidence in the party’s ability to govern wisely. About 600,000 people who supported the ANC for the National Assembly did not vote for the party in the provincial ballot. The 2021 local election results reinforced this trend, with almost half of the ANC voters from the previous National Election either not showing up or switching to another party.

The first big question today is whether the nearly five million ANC voters who went AWOL in 2021 will show up. If they do, how will they cast their ballots? To retain control of National Government, the ANC needs these people to arrive and more.

How so?

It is likely that voter turnout will rise substantially from 2021 and may even exceed the 66% of the last national election five years ago.

Election ’24 is highly competitive with two first-time parties, one rejuvenated outfit, and one breakout party set to challenge the status quo. I’ll elaborate on that in a moment.

Significantly, due to extensive registration campaigns by opposition parties, the number of registered voters has risen by 1.6 million since 2021, reaching a record of 27.8 million who can vote today. Critically, half of these first-time voters are between 18 and 39 years old.

This impact is reflected in the expat vote, which surged almost 200% for Election ’24. Given that the DA received 75% of this out-of-country vote in 2019, this party and others, like ActionSA and BOSA, which have spent months registering new voters, are likely to reap a rich reward from the 1.6 million newcomers.

Apart from the surge from expats, a 21% jump in Special Votes cast over the past two days supports the argument that there is more interest in Election ’24 than any other vote since 1994.

Let’s consider the math and what the ruling ANC needs to retain the majority in the National Assembly, to meet expectations of pollsters and, indeed, the 2,000 members of the BizNews tribe who shared their views on Election ’24.

The critical part is determining the base for the ruling party. If the ANC retains all the votes it attracted during the Ramaphoria-fuelled election in 2019, it would be secure, provided the turnout is 70% or less.

However, if we use the 2021 numbers, the task for the ANC Ground War machine is immense.

We’ll have to wait for the actual results, but based on the scientific numbers available, the pendulum suggests the ANC’s challenge is closer to the 2021 numbers than 2019’s.

There have been 220 by-elections since the November 2021 local government elections due to the deaths, retirement, or expulsion of elected councillors. The ANC contested virtually all these elections, with a net loss of 10% – losing 27 to other parties while regaining 5. The momentum is certainly against it.

We asked the BizNews community to share their expectations on the election results breakdown. Almost 1,200 participated. Perhaps because of insights from interviews with party leaders, their views differ significantly from South Africa’s leading pollsters, especially in the vote shares for parties outside the ANC and DA.

Back to the math – for the ANC to achieve the 41% consensus expected, it will need to attract 3 million more voters than in 2021. For MK, another pollster favourite, to hit double figures, it would need comfortably over 2 million voters.

Put differently, this outcome would require all ANC supporters from the last National election to return and vote either for the ruling party or Jacob Zuma’s newcomer. This would be quite an achievement, considering the economic differences between today and the height of Ramaphoria, plus the results from the November 2021 local elections and the 220 by-elections since then.

Then again, no mortal has a clear view of the future. The rational perspective, though, is that surprises aplenty await the nation – and that the age of coalitions has well and truly arrived, with intense horse-trading at the national and especially provincial levels awaiting politicians over the next 14 days.