MAILBOX: Why SA’s future will be determined by the self-interests of the elite

Ron Weissenberg critiques the ANC’s electoral performance, noting the lowest voter turnout since 1994. Despite potential coalition talks, the ANC retains over 50% of votes, split between kleptocratic factions. He argues that negotiations will prioritize state resource control over citizen welfare, leaving centrists and progressive parties with limited influence.

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By Ron Weissenberg, chair Micronized SA

We may think it has been an electoral bloodbath for the ANC. The lowest voter turnout in the 6 elections since 1994 is concerning. With the IEC results confirmed, the party of Nelson Mandela may need to form a coalition. But is it certain that an alliance arrangement between the ANC and at least one other party is on the cards? The jury is out as to whether a centrist (DA/Multi Party Charter) union or a coalition with the MK and Fanonist parties may lead South Africans for the next 5 years.

Mmusi Maimane and the principled centrists must be very disappointed. At the BizNews conference scarcely 3 months ago, Maimane was claiming a BOSA support base of 1,5 million voters, painstakingly nurtured over the last 5 years. Hubris surrounded fiery conservatives like Gayton Mckenzie, whose brand of anti-liberal, ethnographic politics has not unseated the Western Cape DA government, let alone attracted the ‘lost-child’ coloured vote in substantial numbers. Action SA’s vote tally seemed to mirror the lack of charisma of its leader. And the IFP, the progressive black-vote hope party remains on the Parliamentary backbenches, albeit a little stronger than before. On the left, the EFF has lost some 12% of its vote tally. Most traditional small party support has stagnated.

But de facto, the ANC has over 50% of the votes. They are just split between the same party with two different names and the same modus operandi: Kleptocracy. The ANC family interests and the MK party , led by a card-carrying member of the ANC and his progeny have a comfortable majority in parliament. We would do well to understand this.

Under the Kleptocracy which SA has endured during the Zuma/Ramaphosa regimes, negotiations about who will rule SA will be about the bounty of state resources and who gets to enjoy them. The ANC/MK party veiled alliance is best termed a duumvirate or diarchy, defined as a form of government in which two people, authorities or families rule together lawfully, by collusion, by force or a combination. A Diarchy, based on the convenience of the rulers is nothing new – they go back to ancient Roman times and are still in use today. In South Africa’s 20th century history, one could argue that the Treaty of Vereeniging or the Union of 1910, sensible deals between the Oppenheimer family and the National Party in the early 1950’s, or the Tricameral parliamentary system of the early 1980’s were all about how to rule the country for the ultimate benefit of a very small number of people. How different are the Zuma/Ramaphosa family factions (and their acolytes) of 2024? The bad blood fostered between Ramaphosa’s ANC and Zuma’s ANC in the past is readily cleansed by pragmatic self-interest and the allure of largesse.

When the IEC results are confirmed, it may be best to temper expectations. The combined progressive centrist parties will have few options between the devil and the deep blue sea. Negotiations may be doomed if they are centered on people or policies, or believe that the ANC/MK frolic cares about servant leadership or the welfare of its citizens. It’s about power, money and resources. Either offer the Zuma or Ramaphosa family acolytes guaranteed largesse, or maybe try again in 2029.

For the 16 million voters who cast a wishful ballot on voting day, hope remains a very poor strategy.