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Recent research highlights the significant impact of diminishing Arctic sea ice on the “Warm Arctic, Cold Eurasia” climate pattern, with studies showing variable effects due to atmospheric conditions. Future projections indicate an increase in Arctic winter ice formation until mid-century, offering insights into ongoing climate changes. Sea ice in Disko Bay, Greenland, 20. March 2023. Credit: Lars Henrik Smedsrud
Dr. Shengping He from the University of Bergen has conducted research that highlights how Arctic sea ice influences winter temperatures in East Asia.
In recent decades, the Arctic climate has experienced rapid changes, with warming rates exceeding the global average by three to four times. This perplexing “Warm Arctic, Cold Eurasia” phenomenon has significant implications, prompting scientific inquiry into its underlying mechanisms.
Arctic sea ice has been rapidly declining, diminishing by about 12.2% in summer extent per decade over the past 40 years. Earlier studies suggested that diminishing Arctic sea ice played a key role in driving the “Warm Arctic, Cold Eurasia” climate mode. However, limitations in available observations raised questions about whether internal atmospheric variability might be masking the true impact of reduced sea ice.
Research on Arctic Sea Ice and Climate Patterns
Dr. Shengping He, Senior Researcher at the University of Bergen’s Geophysical Institute and corresponding author of the study published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences , utilized large-scale experiments to untangle the influence of Arctic sea ice loss and internal atmospheric variability on this climate mode. In collaboration with various international institutions, the study revealed that diminishing sea ice can indeed trigger a “Warm Arctic, Cold East Asia” pattern. However, the cooling effect on East Asia due to reduced sea ice could easily be overshadowed by atmospheric variability, resulting in either more significant cold or warm anomalies.
The team also investigated future Arctic sea ice changes, focusing on newly formed winter ice. As the Arctic warms, the increase in open ocean areas in winter allows for more newly formed ice. This newer ice provides critical information about Arctic-air-sea interactions and broader atmospheric connections in the Northern Hemisphere. Their findings indicate that Arctic winter newly formed ice is expected to continue increasing until mid-century under various emissions scenarios, stabilizing thereafter in more moderate scenarios but decreasing under higher emissions.
These new studies not only quantified the direct impact of Arctic sea ice on winter temperatures but also unveiled the increasing trend in winter Arctic newly formed ice. The findings offer crucial insights into climate changes in the “new Arctic” era.
Reference: “Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2” by Shengping He, Helge Drange, Tore Furevik, Huijun Wang, Ke Fan, Lise Seland Graff and Yvan J. Orsolini, 2 April 2024, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.
DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9
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