Bitcoin Post-Halving Surge Countdown: Will Day 100 Ignite the Next Bull Run?

Today, July 29, marks 100 days since Bitcoin BTC’s fourth halving. Historical data suggests that the bullish impacts of past halvings become profound after 100 days. 

So, André Dragosch, Head of Research at the ETC Group, thinks we might be on the cusp of another bull run. Moreover, the market reels in bullish sentiments from Donald Trump’s pro-crypto declarations during the Bitcoin Conference held in Nashville.

Amid the bullish sentiments, Bitcoin now eyes the $70,000 threshold, trading above $69,600 after posting moderate gains over the past day.

Understanding the Bitcoin Halving Mechanism

The Bitcoin network observes a halving every four years, cutting the reward for mining blocks in half. The last halving happened on April 20, reducing the mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. 

Notably, every halving aims to control Bitcoin’s supply, making it scarcer over time. Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins. Halving helps slow the pace at which this limit is reached.

Recall that the first halving in 2012 cut rewards from 50 BTC to 25 BTC per block. Subsequent halvings in 2016 and 2020 further reduced the rewards to 12.5 BTC and then to 6.25 BTC. 

Each halving has historically led to significant price rallies. According to ETC Group’s André Dragosch, the positive effects typically manifest in Bitcoin’s price for three months. 

The analyst examined Bitcoin’s performance data from past halving cycles, noting a more profound price action after the initial 100 days. He also stated that the impact of the last halving on Bitcoin’s price should start surfacing soon.

GM ☕️

Today marks exactly 100 days after the #Bitcoin Halving event on the 20th of April.

The market tends to have a short memory but the Halving induced supply deficit should just start take effect from now on.

ACCELERATE. pic.twitter.com/c0K3XXhXRv

— André Dragosch | Bitcoin & Macro ⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) July 29, 2024

According to André‘s findings, Bitcoin’s upward momentum keeps increasing and is most noticeable around 400 days after the halving. This change is statistically significant, with “T-values” exceeding 2%. 

For context, a T-value is a statistical measure to determine the difference between the sample and population mean.

“The key takeaway is that 100 days after the Halving, the performance difference becomes statistically significant (T-value> 2) and then becomes increasingly significant until around 400 days after the Halving,” Dragosch explained. 

Market Reactions and Future Predictions

The crypto industry is abuzz following Donald Trump’s recent speech at the Bitcoin conference, where he disclosed plans to make the United States the world’s crypto capital. 

Given the bullish atmosphere, many anticipate massive rallies for Bitcoin. André said he is surprised Bitcoin has yet to reach a new all-time high despite the bullish sentiment. 

Nonetheless, market participants’ eyes are on the 100-day milestone. They are focused on whether Bitcoin will follow its historical trend and see a notable price rally. 

BTC has increased to $69,692 with a 3% surge in 24 hours. Moreover, the coin has increased 3.25% in the past week. This performance may be fuelled by heightened anticipation and excitement among market participants. 

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article do not constitute financial advice. We encourage readers to conduct their own research and determine their own risk tolerance before making any financial decisions. Cryptocurrency is a highly volatile, high-risk asset class.

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