The Philadelphia Eagles, one of three unbeaten teams in the NFL through three weeks of the 2023 season, will be looking to avenge one of the league’s most stunning upsets of a year ago when they play host to the Washington Commanders (2-1) on Sunday afternoon.
Entering Week 10 of last season, Philadelphia stood 8-0 and was an 11-point choice to beat visiting Washington, then 4-5, on a Monday night. Only seven weeks earlier, the Eagles were 24-8 winners in Washington against their NFC East rival, losing their bid for a shutout in the final two minutes.
But in the rematch, the Eagles’ defense couldn’t get the Commanders off the field.
Washington overcame a 14-7 second-quarter deficit en route to a 32-21 victory and, in the process, finished the game with 81 offensive snaps to Philadelphia’s 47 and a time of possession of 40 minutes, 24 seconds — the second-best for anyone in a 60-minute outing last year.
Dating to late in the 2021 season, it was Philly QB Jalen Hurts’ only defeat in his past 21 regular-season starts.
Since their meetings last season, though, Washington has changed quarterbacks, again, unloading original starter Carson Wentz and replacement Taylor Heinicke, opting to go with second-year man Sam Howell.
He has made four career starts, including last week’s 37-3 home loss to Buffalo, in which Howell threw a league-season-high four INTs and was sacked a league-season-high nine times. (But on the bright side, he didn’t fumble).
Commanders vs. Eagles: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total & Division Futures
The Eagles, working on short rest after a punishing 25-11 triumph at Tampa Bay on Monday night, are listed as a favorite of 8 to 8.5 points over the Commanders with the over/under number at 44 to 44.5. In late spring, when odds were first posted at the Westgate SuperBook, Philadelphia was a 7.5-point choice with the O/U also at 44.5.
On the moneyline, the Eagles are available at -375, with the Commanders at +320.
This season, teams favored by 8 or more points are 4-1 straight-up and against the line, with the loss coming last week when Arizona defeated visiting Dallas as an 11-point underdog.
And about the home-field edge, there has never been a season in the previous 103 years of the NFL in which the vistors won more than they lost. But this year, clubs away from home are 26-22, including 26-19-3 ATS.
With the over/under, it’s been a wild ride this season. Overall, bettors of the under have cashed in the most with 26 wins in 48 games. But in Week 2, the over bettors got rich, winning 13 times in 16 games.
On the NFL division futures boards, the Eagles are the odds-on favorite to win the NFC East at -155, with the Commanders third at +2000.
Commanders vs. Eagles Key Injuries
One of the main concerns for the Eagles is the status of starting OLG Landon Dickerson, who left Monday night’s game with a knee contusion. He also was dealing with a foot injury during the preseason. The Eagles will know more about his status for Sunday if he can participate in drills this week.
Also, WR Quez Watkins, who missed the past two games with a hamstring issue, remains questionable. And backup running back Boston Scott, also questionable, is coming off a concussion he suffered in Week 2 vs. Minnesota.
Defensively, safety Justin Evans left Monday’s game with a neck injury and is questionable. Cornerback Avonte Maddox (pectoral) and linebacker Nakobe Dean (foot) are on IR.
For Washington, tight end Logan Thomas missed last week’s game dealing with a concussion he received in Denver in Week 2. He’s questionable.
No defensive starters were listed on the injury list as of Tuesday.
Commanders vs. Eagles Betting Trends
Philadelphia, which had 10 days off between its Week 2 Thursday night victory over Minnesota and last week’s MNF triumph at Tampa Bay, will have only a five-day break before returning to the field to take on Washington.
This season, teams are 3-3 SU/ATS on short rest off a Monday night game against a team on normal rest. Home teams in that scenario are 2-0 SU/ATS.
Regarding that whopping Commanders loss last week: Since 2020, teams have gone 18-11 ATS rebounding in their next game after losing 30 points or more, 18-10-1 SU.
Two seasons ago Washington was in the same scenario as it is now. Then known as the Football Team, it faced the Eagles at home after a 56-14 loss vs. Dallas. Washington fell to Philadelphia 20-16 but rewarded its betting backers as a 6-point underdog.
Commanders vs. Eagles Props
Here are some other interesting ways to bet on Sunday’s game:
Leader at Halftime/Full-Time (DraftKings)
Commanders/Eagles: +600
Commanders/Commanders: +475
Commanders/Tie: +3500
Tie/Eagles: +1400
Tie/Commanders: +3000
Tie/Tie: +6000
Eagles/Eagles: -175
Eagles/Commanders: +1300
Eagles/Tie: +3000
Game’s First Drive (FanDuel)
Punt: +100
TD on Offense: +290
FG Attempt: +430
Any Other: +500
Winning Margin (PointsBet)
Commanders by 1-6: +550
Eagles by 1-6: +330
Commanders by 7-12: +1100
Eagles by 7-12: +400
Commanders by 13+: +1400
Eagles by 13+: +140
Commanders vs. Eagles Analysis & Picks
Washington has some major issues along the offensive line that have resulted in the team ranking last in sacks allowed with 19 — six more than anyone else. And it wasn’t much different last year when the Eagles sacked ex-Eagle Wentz nine times in their Week 3 matchup.
Or maybe it’s Howell who spends too much time processing what he sees from the pocket. Last week, thanks to the sack and interception yardage, Washington averaged only 2.4 yards on its 38 drop-backs.
Although the Eagles have only six sacks and aren’t getting to the quarterback like last year when they had 70, two off the NFL record, they have a dynamic front line that wrecks offenses. Foes are averaging only 3.0 yards a rush, the league’s fourth-best defensive rate.
Offensively, running back D’Andre Swift, an offseason pickup from Detroit, is averaging 6.8 yards a rush on 45 attempts, which is 0.7 yards better per carry than any other RB with at least 20 tries. And when the team sniffs the goal line, Hurts has three TDs from in close with his sneaks.
Philly will go against a defensive unit yielding 4.8 yards a run, the NFL’s sixth-highest rate.
And apparently, all is well again between Hurts and WR A.J. Brown, who had nine catches off 14 targets for 131 yards against the Bucs. A week earlier, Hurts threw his way only six times and Brown had four catches for 29 yards.
In that Week 2 game, DeVonta Smith had 131 receiving yards, so it won’t be easy for Washington to keep a close watch on both receivers, especially when TE Dallas Goedert is part of the mix.
Prediction: Eagles minus points and over.
How to Watch Commanders vs. Eagles
Date: Sunday, Oct. 1, 2023
Kickoff: 11 a.m. EDT
Location: Lincoln Financial Field — Philadelphia, PA
Where to Watch: Fox
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