Households managing debt as economy slows but businesses under strain

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Households are managing their debt as the economy slows but businesses are showing increased signs of strain according to credit reporting firm Centrix.

Its latest monthly report shows 423,000 people in arrears in August, down 3000 from the month before. That represents 11.6 percent of active consumer borrowers, sitting around levels of four years ago.

The data was mixed with evidence households were managing to keep a lid on discretionary spending such as buy-now-pay-later (BNPL), but using personal loans and credit cards to cover daily expenses.

Centrix managing director Keith McLaughlin said the numbers were coming off the low base during the pandemic, but households appeared to be faring better than businesses.

“I think households are stabilising they are getting more accustomed to where we are at the moment, and there’s a little bit more consumer confidence coming back into the market, and consumer and household budgets are starting to be more aligned.”

“Businesses are really suffering from that downturn in cashflow they’ve experienced in the past 12 months and they are struggling.”

Overall, credit arrears were 7.8 percent higher than a year ago, with rises in arrears for energy bills, credit cards and personal loans, but slight dips in arrears for vehicle loans, and Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) payments.

McLaughlin said household demand for unsecured credit continued to grow, as households used the likes of credit cards to cover costs, but the rise in utility arrears was troubling while the dip in BNPL was a positive.

“These are the lowest levels we’ve seen since November 2022, which could be an encouraging sign Kiwi consumers are working to manage their debt in one of the most popular unsecured credit options available.”

A modest 2 percent rise in the demand for mortgage finance matched reports of an uptick in the housing market, with mortgage arrears falling slightly on the previous month, but 28 percent on a year ago.

The number of businesses in default and going into liquidation rose in August, with increasing numbers of property and rental property firms in default, while retail had the highest level of liquidations.

The level of defaults in the agriculture sector was also 15 percent higher, which was put down to the tougher economic climate, notably in dairy farming and horticulture.

“The remainder of 2023 will continue to be challenging for Kiwi households and businesses alike,” McLaughlin said.