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The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will stage an encore of last year’s National League Division Series after the Phils finished off their two-game sweep of the Miami Marlins in the NL Wild Card Series on Wednesday with a 7-1 win.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Atlanta is a -165 favorite ($165 bet to win $100) to defeat the Phils in the playoffs. Philadelphia is a +140 underdog ($100 bet to win $140) to pull off the upset.
The Braves enter the playoffs with the shortest odds to take the Fall Classic (+310) after winning an MLB-high 104 games thanks to a powerful and deep lineup that smacked 307 home runs and posted an .845 OPS, both tops in the majors.
Ten players hit 11 or more homers, including five (Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies) smacking 33 or more.
Olson’s 54 dingers led the bigs, while Acuña, the NL MVP favorite, had 41 homers, 106 RBI, 217 hits, 149 runs, 73 stolen bases, a .337 batting average and a 1.012 OPS.
Navigating this lineup is a tall order for any pitcher. Asking any team to overcome the 2023 Braves three times in a best-of-five series appears to be a Herculean task.
Then there’s the rotation, which features a phenomenal one-two-three punch in 2022 NL Cy Young runner-up Max Fried, 2023 strikeout leader Spencer Strider and two-time All-Star Charlie Morton. Closer Raisel Iglesias has fared well with 33 saves and a 2.75 ERA.
The good news for the Phillies (or any potential playoff team facing the Braves) is that variance obviously plays a heavy role in baseball. It’s not uncommon to see 100-plus win teams coast into the playoffs only to crash and burn in October.
Last year, three National League teams (111-win Los Angeles Dodgers, 101-win Braves, 101-win New York Mets) surpassed the victory century mark before the playoffs.
None of them won a playoff round. Instead, the 87-win Phillies and the 89-win San Diego Padres faced off in the NL Championship Series.
Over the course of a short series, bats can go cold, or pitching can fall short of expectations. Perhaps it happens to Atlanta here, but the Braves have an additional problem.
Simply put, the Phillies won’t be intimidated or scared. The Phillies took home a 3-1 NLDS win over the Braves last year thanks largely to Bryce Harper and his mammoth 1.592 OPS.
This year, Philadelphia may have “only” posted 90 wins, good enough for the first NL wild card, but the Phillies are playing far better after a 25-32 start.
Trea Turner in particular has turned aside a dreadful first half to post a .902 OPS in the second half. Bryce Harper hit six homers in his last 18 regular-season games. Kyle Schwarber, despite hitting just .197, managed a team-high 47 homers.
The Phillies also have a top two in the rotation that can rival the Braves’ Fried and Strider. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are riding into the NLDS hot after combining for 13.2 innings of one-run ball and 11 strikeouts in the sweep over the Marlins. The bullpen has also fared well, posting a 3.56 ERA, good enough for seventh in MLB.
Atlanta does have an edge on defense. Per Fielding Bible, the team is tied for 15th in MLB with 17 defensive runs saved. Philadelphia struggled on defense this year with negative-25 defensive runs saved.
Atlanta went 8-5 against Philadelphia during the regular season, outscoring the Phils 74-58 in the process.
All in all, this is shaping up to be a great series. On paper, this would appear to have a wide range of outcomes.
It’s easy to see Atlanta carrying over its regular season dominance into the playoffs and powering its way to victory.
It’s also possible Philadelphia’s Red October magic from last year has staying power into 2023 and that the team makes it 2-for-2 against Atlanta.
We’ll find out soon enough how this all goes down when Atlanta hosts Philadelphia for Game 1 on Saturday.
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