6 Months for Tesla to Have Fully Ramped 4680 Battery Lines

Giga Texas made their 20 millionth 4680 cell. This comes just 4 months after Tesla built its 10 millionth 4680 cell at Giga Texas.

Tesla just built their 20 millionth 4680 cell at Giga Texas!

What does that mean?

-As per my analysis from the Q2 earnings call in the image below: It looks they’re increasing the 4680 line speed in Texas by about 21% per month, and my guess of 20 million cells by October was… https://t.co/YnM5Ncdy5P pic.twitter.com/uQXFuABEMC

— The Limiting Factor (@LimitingThe) October 11, 2023

Limiting Factor says. -As per my analysis from the Q2 earnings call in the second image:  It looks they’re increasing the 4680 line speed in Texas by about 21% per month, and Jordan’s guess of 20 million cells by October was spot on.
If the rest of my assumptions are correct, that equates to about a 5.13 GWh/yr run rate, which is about 20-30% more than a typical battery line…  

This would also mean with 21% improvement per month then 3 months to double and about 6 months to reach 20-25 GWh/line. The lines at Austin are capable of 20-25GWh/line. This would be full ramped production so we can make multiple lines by copying equipment and proceses. 

-5.13GWh is based on an assumption of 4.5 million cells per month at ~95 Wh/cell. 
-95Wh/cell includes the 10% energy density increase Drew mentioned in the last earnings call.  
-A ~5GWh run rate, or 4.5 million cells per month, is more than enough to ramp the Cybertruck…  
-Depending on pack size, that could support a run rate of 25-50k Cybertrucks per year.    
-At this point, it looks like Tesla probably has an excess of cells for the C/T ramp.  Hopefully that means they can start ramping the Semi or start converting Model Y or Model 3 to the 4680.

Just built our 20 millionth 4680 cell at Giga Texas! pic.twitter.com/6PCD6UC9PS

— Tesla (@Tesla) October 11, 2023

About $45 million USD of tax credits per 10 million cells.

Someone correct me if I’m wrong! From memory it’s a
$35 tax credit for each kWh of cells and $10 tax credit for each kWh of packs.

10 Million cells is about 1 GWh of cells and packs or 1 Million kWhs.

1 Million… https://t.co/RJK4lZ0nBF

— The Limiting Factor (@LimitingThe) October 11, 2023

100 GWh per year needs 85 million cells per month.
21 million cells per month per line.

Tesla needs to start and bring 20 lines to full production. This would be started before the 6 month technical ramp of the first line. There is equipment to install and staff to train. In 6-9 months, Tesla would have a 500 GWH/year runrate. 420 million cells per month by replicating the lines.

20 lines (25 GWH/year line) for 500 GWH/year
40 lines (25 GWH/year line) for 1000 GWH/year

Each 4 line batch of 100 GWh/year is about $2-3B of capex but used in $40-60B of products for revenue per year. Unleashing $40-60 billlion of capex to unlock the $800-1200 billion per year of truly unlimited batteries.

Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.

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