Sports Mole previews Monday’s CONCACAF Gold Cup clash between Honduras and Haiti, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Honduras and Haiti will enter their final group stage encounter at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte this Sunday, knowing that a win could be the only thing which assures them a place in the knockout stage at the Gold Cup.
Following its 1-1 draw versus Qatar, La H must win this match and have Mexico draw or defeat Qatar to move on, while the formula is much simpler for the Haitians as a victory would see them through to the quarter-finals.
Match preview
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With precious seconds ticking away, Los Catrachos managed to stay alive at the Gold Cup thanks to a 96th-minute equaliser on Thursday.
That goal allowed Diego Vasquez’s side the opportunity to make it into the last eight of this competition for a second successive campaign, but even a win this weekend may not be enough, as a Qatar triumph against the Mexicans would mean the Gold Cup fate of La H would come down to goal difference with the Hondurans currently at -4 and the Maroons at -1.
In 2021 Honduras lost their final group stage fixture in this competition, 2-0 versus Qatar, the first time they had conceded or tasted a defeat on matchday three at the Gold Cup since 2015.
The Hondurans have given up the opening goal in three successive encounters this year and have not won when doing so since defeating Costa Rica on penalties in the third-place match at the CONCACAF Nations League in 2021.
A lack of quality in front of goal was among the principal reasons this team finished at the bottom of the Octagon in 2022 World Cup qualifying, scoring the fewest goals (seven) in the final round, and that has continued to hold them back as Honduras have not scored more than once on the international stage since a 2-1 triumph over Guatemala in September of last year.
While La H have had numerous matches over the past few years with the majority of the ball, this team have rarely been able to do much with it, going winless when claiming over 50% of the possession in every match played since a 4-0 triumph over Grenada at the 2021 Gold Cup.
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Some early missed opportunities on matchday two against the Mexicans proved costly as Haiti suffered its first defeat of 2023, dropping them down into second place in their group, two points above Qatar and Honduras.
Their three goals conceded on Thursday were as many as they had allowed all year before that encounter, while they had not given up that many in a single game since being crushed 6-1 by Bahrain in September 2021.
Despite that setback, Gabriel Calderon Pellegrino still has his team in the pole position to reach the last eight, as a win would get them there, while a draw might also do the job, though should that happen, and Qatar win its match, Les Grenadiers’ place in the quarter-finals would boil down to goal difference with both sides currently sitting at -1.
In past appearances at this competition, the Haitians have often saved their best for last, as in their final group stage encounter, winning its third match at the Gold Cup in each of its previous three appearances.
Nearly eight years ago, at this same stage of the Gold Cup, they ended a three-match losing run against Honduras, defeating them 1-0, the first time they had shut them out since 1973 and their only triumph versus Los Catrachos since this tournament changed its name in 1991.
Les Grenadiers are unbeaten in their previous three encounters versus Central American sides at this tournament with its last defeat coming against El Salvador in 2013.
Honduras CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
Honduras form (all competitions):
Haiti CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
Haiti form (all competitions):
Team News
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Rubilio Castillo, who came on for Alexander Lopez at the start of the second half against Qatar, will not be available for Honduras in this upcoming match after being red-carded in the latter stages.
Five changes were made to the Honduran starting 11 from matchday one to two as Edrick Menjivar replaced Luis Lopez in goal, while Omar Elvir, Maylor Nunez, Bryan Acosta and Jerry Bengtson drew into the lineup, with Devron Garcia, Jorge Alvarez, Jose Pinto and Jorge Benguche coming out.
Alberth Elis rescued Los Catrachos on the last kick of the match Thursday with his 13th strike in his 60th international appearance, moving him three back of Saul Martinez for a top-10 spot in all-time goals for Honduras.
Following its victory against Qatar on matchday one, Pellegrino made two changes to the Haiti starting 11 earlier this week as Danley Jean Jacques and Wilde-Donald Guerrier came in for Bryan Alceus and Derrick Etienne.
Jacques had the only goal for Haiti in the loss to Mexico, his first with the national team, while Duckens Nazon, who netted in their previous match against Qatar, notched the winner the last time they defeated Honduras in 2018 (1-0).
Every Haitian player selected to compete in this competition have at least one international cap, with Fafa Picault and Jayro Jean each picking up their first two at the Gold Cup.
Honduras possible starting lineup:
Menjivar; Nunez, Santos, Vega, Elvir; Acosta, Flores, Alvarez, Rosales; Bengtson, Elis
Haiti possible starting lineup:
Pierre; Simonsen, Ade, Séance, Christian; Sainte, Jacques; Picault, Nazon, Etienne; Pierrot
We say: Honduras 1-2 Haiti
The Haitians have started brightly in both of their encounters at this tournament and while the Hondurans were able to rescue themselves on matchday two, they give up too many quality scoring chances, something we believe Les Grenadiers will be able to take advantage of on Sunday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data
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