* . *
  • About
  • Advertise
  • Privacy & Policy
  • Contact
Thursday, October 2, 2025
Earth-News
  • Home
  • Business
  • Entertainment
    Major airline to offer new in-flight entertainment options for passengers – PennLive.com

    Major airline to offer new in-flight entertainment options for passengers – PennLive.com

    Penn State-Themed Restaurant and Entertainment Spot Happy Valley Live Set to Open in State College – StateCollege.com

    Penn State-Themed Restaurant and Entertainment Spot Happy Valley Live Set to Open in State College – StateCollege.com

    The Police Made Chart History With This 1979 Hit Nearly 50 Years Ago – Yahoo

    How The Police Changed Music Forever with Their Iconic 1979 Hit Nearly 50 Years Ago

    Good Deed Entertainment Acquires Worldwide Rights To Liza Mandelup’s Documentary ‘Caterpillar’ – Deadline

    Good Deed Entertainment Lands Global Rights to Liza Mandelup’s Captivating Documentary ‘Caterpillar

    Danielle Fishel Explains Why Being on “DWTS” Makes Her Feel ‘Like It’s 1994 Again’ Filming “Boy Meets World” (Exclusive) – Yahoo

    Danielle Fishel Explains Why Being on “DWTS” Makes Her Feel ‘Like It’s 1994 Again’ Filming “Boy Meets World” (Exclusive) – Yahoo

    Jussie Smollett Claims He Was ‘Disrespected’ on the ‘Special Forces’ Season Premiere – Yahoo

    Jussie Smollett Opens Up About Feeling ‘Disrespected’ During the ‘Special Forces’ Season Premiere

  • General
  • Health
  • News

    Cracking the Code: Why China’s Economic Challenges Aren’t Shaking Markets, Unlike America’s” – Bloomberg

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Trending Tags

    • Trump Inauguration
    • United Stated
    • White House
    • Market Stories
    • Election Results
  • Science
  • Sports
  • Technology
    A Tech Expo Shows What China Can Make, but Not Who’ll Buy It All – The New York Times

    Inside China’s Tech Expo: Cutting-Edge Innovations Face Uncertain Demand

    Steampunk Metal Oval Technology Sense Sunglasses Personality Handmade Chain Multicolor Sunglasses UV400 – The San Joaquin Valley Sun

    Steampunk Metal Oval Sunglasses with Handmade Multicolor Chain – Bold UV400 Protection and Unique Style

    STELLA Automotive AI Appoints Fred Seidelman as Chief Technology Officer – Yahoo Finance

    STELLA Automotive AI Appoints Fred Seidelman as New Chief Technology Officer

    Saving Energy and Money with Smart Technology – Terms of Service with Clare Duffy – Podcast on CNN Podcasts – CNN

    Saving Energy and Money with Smart Technology – Terms of Service with Clare Duffy – Podcast on CNN Podcasts – CNN

    Four Strategic Signals Technology Leaders Are Tuning In To – SPONSOR CONTENT FROM ARM – Harvard Business Review

    Four Essential Strategic Signals Every Technology Leader Should Watch

    Virginia Tech hosts annual New Music + Technology Festival this week – Cardinal News

    Virginia Tech Kicks Off Exciting Annual New Music and Technology Festival This Week

    Trending Tags

    • Nintendo Switch
    • CES 2017
    • Playstation 4 Pro
    • Mark Zuckerberg
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Business
  • Entertainment
    Major airline to offer new in-flight entertainment options for passengers – PennLive.com

    Major airline to offer new in-flight entertainment options for passengers – PennLive.com

    Penn State-Themed Restaurant and Entertainment Spot Happy Valley Live Set to Open in State College – StateCollege.com

    Penn State-Themed Restaurant and Entertainment Spot Happy Valley Live Set to Open in State College – StateCollege.com

    The Police Made Chart History With This 1979 Hit Nearly 50 Years Ago – Yahoo

    How The Police Changed Music Forever with Their Iconic 1979 Hit Nearly 50 Years Ago

    Good Deed Entertainment Acquires Worldwide Rights To Liza Mandelup’s Documentary ‘Caterpillar’ – Deadline

    Good Deed Entertainment Lands Global Rights to Liza Mandelup’s Captivating Documentary ‘Caterpillar

    Danielle Fishel Explains Why Being on “DWTS” Makes Her Feel ‘Like It’s 1994 Again’ Filming “Boy Meets World” (Exclusive) – Yahoo

    Danielle Fishel Explains Why Being on “DWTS” Makes Her Feel ‘Like It’s 1994 Again’ Filming “Boy Meets World” (Exclusive) – Yahoo

    Jussie Smollett Claims He Was ‘Disrespected’ on the ‘Special Forces’ Season Premiere – Yahoo

    Jussie Smollett Opens Up About Feeling ‘Disrespected’ During the ‘Special Forces’ Season Premiere

  • General
  • Health
  • News

    Cracking the Code: Why China’s Economic Challenges Aren’t Shaking Markets, Unlike America’s” – Bloomberg

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Trending Tags

    • Trump Inauguration
    • United Stated
    • White House
    • Market Stories
    • Election Results
  • Science
  • Sports
  • Technology
    A Tech Expo Shows What China Can Make, but Not Who’ll Buy It All – The New York Times

    Inside China’s Tech Expo: Cutting-Edge Innovations Face Uncertain Demand

    Steampunk Metal Oval Technology Sense Sunglasses Personality Handmade Chain Multicolor Sunglasses UV400 – The San Joaquin Valley Sun

    Steampunk Metal Oval Sunglasses with Handmade Multicolor Chain – Bold UV400 Protection and Unique Style

    STELLA Automotive AI Appoints Fred Seidelman as Chief Technology Officer – Yahoo Finance

    STELLA Automotive AI Appoints Fred Seidelman as New Chief Technology Officer

    Saving Energy and Money with Smart Technology – Terms of Service with Clare Duffy – Podcast on CNN Podcasts – CNN

    Saving Energy and Money with Smart Technology – Terms of Service with Clare Duffy – Podcast on CNN Podcasts – CNN

    Four Strategic Signals Technology Leaders Are Tuning In To – SPONSOR CONTENT FROM ARM – Harvard Business Review

    Four Essential Strategic Signals Every Technology Leader Should Watch

    Virginia Tech hosts annual New Music + Technology Festival this week – Cardinal News

    Virginia Tech Kicks Off Exciting Annual New Music and Technology Festival This Week

    Trending Tags

    • Nintendo Switch
    • CES 2017
    • Playstation 4 Pro
    • Mark Zuckerberg
No Result
View All Result
Earth-News
No Result
View All Result
Home Business

Americans (Seemingly) Aren’t Allowed to Put This Economic Theory to the Test

September 23, 2023
in Business
Americans (Seemingly) Aren’t Allowed to Put This Economic Theory to the Test
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Prediction market Kalshi is once again being hamstrung by U.S. regulators. According to a closely watched decision, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will not let the licensed betting market offer users a chance to wager on the future makeup of the House of Representatives and Senate this election cycle (or any, for that matter).

There will be no gambling on the future of democracy, it seems.

This is an excerpt from The Node newsletter, a daily roundup of the most pivotal crypto news on CoinDesk and beyond. You can subscribe to get the full newsletter here.

In a 3-1 vote, the three Democratic commissioners rejected Kalshi’s proposal to introduce “a first-of-its-kind derivative contract” tied to congressional elections, which had been opposed by some lawmakers and other onlookers as something that might tarnish the U.S. elections process.

And to be fair, there’s justification for the CFTC’s decision here.

CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam reportedly said he was concerned the agency was ill-equipped to become an “election cop.” The CFTC regulates derivatives contracts and commodities – like wheat, soybeans and cattle – to foster capital formation in those often hyper-critical markets and occasionally polices fraud and manipulation of the assets under its charge.

The CFTC is not exactly deep pocketed, and it would be a turn of departure for the agency to begin adjudicating something like election fraud had Kalshi’s proposed “events contracts” gone into play. Plus, over a dozen states expressly forbid gambling on elections.

Meanwhile, CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham, who abstained from the vote, didn’t seem to have much of a defense of the proposal when writing in June. Pham, a Republican nominated by Biden, may be a familiar name to some readers of The Node for her punchy dissenting opinion on the recent Stoner Cats case.

Instead of an impassioned defense of markets or waxing philosophic on the economic theory behind information markets, Pham argued that because the U.S. Court of Appeals had allowed PredictIt, an elections-focused prediction market, to remain operating after the CFTC ordered it to halt operators, then Kalshi should be allowed to let people gamble on elections, too.

“[It] is only fair for either both exchanges to list the political control contracts, or neither of them should,” she wrote.

Fairs fair. But if Pham isn’t going to rep the prediction market-loving crypto bros here, then I will.

First, I want to start off by saying that it makes sense the CFTC oversees this nascent sector. Prediction markets let people bet on the likelihood of future outcomes in a way that almost perfectly matches the CFTC’s working and workable definition for “binary options.” A question is posed, and those who think they can guess correctly bet either yes or no.

It also makes sense that the watchdog doesn’t want to get involved in “gaming.” Even putting aside the disastrous effect that would have on casinos as well as the nascent, tax-generating sports betting industry for states, it simply isn’t befitting for the agency that plays such an important role in the process of price discovery and offsetting price risk.

I also recognize that the CFTC has been remarkably (or at least mostly) consistent on the question of elections betting. For instance, in 2012, the CFTC rejected the North American Derivatives Exchange’s application to list “political event contracts.” And I’m sure similar rulemaking goes back decades, if you’re willing to put aside the years the Iowa Electronic Markets and PredictIt operated under “No Action” letters from the CFTC.

It goes without saying there is a major difference between a corporate entity like Kalshi, which was registered by the agency in 2020, and nonprofits like PredictIt and the Iowa Electronic Market, which are both run by universities and so more likely to pass the smell test for providing “educational” value. Especially considering the checkered history or for-profit prediction markets (not even counting the crypto-based ones).

However, all that said, there’s something to the idea that the CFTC is using the levers of regulation to essentially wipe out predictions markets as an industry before it can even get going. There may or may not be something to the psychological and economic theory behind betting markets, but it is significant that a number of academics, corporations and even DARPA have at one point or another seen potential in the idea of crowdsourcing truth.

The so-called “wisdom of the crowd” is basically as accepted an idea as irrational exuberance — with some version of aggregate knowledge standing as the cornerstone to the efficient-market hypothesis that underlies much of modern finance.

And if you want less of a haughty reason, then you can be sure that prediction markets for elections would provide extremely useful data for political scientists. That would be true whether or not Kalshi’s reasoning for launching the service was accurate: allowing companies and individuals to bet upwards of $100 million on congressional elections to hedge against political risks.

I can see why organizations like Better Market and Public Citizen filed public comments against Kalshi’s plans, arguing that bringing more money into U.S. elections would cheapen the practice at a time when trust in our shared democratic institutions is at a low. And can see why some may think that allowing people to bet on the outcome of current events would seemingly contribute to the mass financialization of reality.

I’m not going to invoke the “age of AI” or the spread of fake news as a defense of some to wager on whether Kanye will have another mental breakdown this year, but it does suck that there is a theory out there that apparent Americans aren’t even allowed to test.

>>> Read full article>>>
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source : CoinDesk – https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2023/09/22/americans-seemingly-arent-allowed-to-put-this-economic-theory-to-the-test/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

Tags: Americans’businessSeemingly
Previous Post

Ether Turns Inflationary as Network Revenue Plunges to 9-Month Low

Next Post

Bitcoin Holding Above $26K Is ‘Remarkable’ as Equities Take a Hit. What’s Next for BTC’s Price?

Oak Ridge Reservation Set for $42M Ecological Restoration, Balancing – Hoodline

Oak Ridge Reservation to Undergo $42M Ecological Restoration and Balancing Effort

October 2, 2025
Mayor green lights Science Center development; residents call it ‘giant win’ for St. Pete – WFLA

Mayor green lights Science Center development; residents call it ‘giant win’ for St. Pete – WFLA

October 2, 2025
A ‘Great Wave’ is rippling through our galaxy, pushing thousands of stars out of place – Live Science

A ‘Great Wave’ is rippling through our galaxy, pushing thousands of stars out of place – Live Science

October 2, 2025
These are the best breweries in New Jersey, according to recent online ranking – Yahoo

These are the best breweries in New Jersey, according to recent online ranking – Yahoo

October 2, 2025
A Tech Expo Shows What China Can Make, but Not Who’ll Buy It All – The New York Times

Inside China’s Tech Expo: Cutting-Edge Innovations Face Uncertain Demand

October 2, 2025
E-Sports Week in Review – gobrits.com

This Week’s Most Exciting Moments in E-Sports

October 2, 2025
FIFA World Cup 2026 tickets go on sale today. Here’s how you can get them – LiveNOW from FOX

Score Your Spot: How to Get FIFA World Cup 2026 Tickets Now!

October 2, 2025
Factories struggle in September as soft demand in China and US take toll – Reuters

Factories struggle in September as soft demand in China and US take toll – Reuters

October 2, 2025
Major airline to offer new in-flight entertainment options for passengers – PennLive.com

Major airline to offer new in-flight entertainment options for passengers – PennLive.com

October 2, 2025
FACT: Democrats Shut Down Government Over Free Healthcare for Illegals – The White House (.gov)

Democrats Push Government Shutdown Over Free Healthcare for Undocumented Immigrants

October 2, 2025

Categories

Archives

October 2025
M T W T F S S
 12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031  
« Sep    
Earth-News.info

The Earth News is an independent English-language daily published Website from all around the World News

Browse by Category

  • Business (20,132)
  • Ecology (847)
  • Economy (867)
  • Entertainment (21,741)
  • General (17,364)
  • Health (9,910)
  • Lifestyle (881)
  • News (22,149)
  • People (870)
  • Politics (878)
  • Science (16,078)
  • Sports (21,368)
  • Technology (15,851)
  • World (850)

Recent News

Oak Ridge Reservation Set for $42M Ecological Restoration, Balancing – Hoodline

Oak Ridge Reservation to Undergo $42M Ecological Restoration and Balancing Effort

October 2, 2025
Mayor green lights Science Center development; residents call it ‘giant win’ for St. Pete – WFLA

Mayor green lights Science Center development; residents call it ‘giant win’ for St. Pete – WFLA

October 2, 2025
  • About
  • Advertise
  • Privacy & Policy
  • Contact

© 2023 earth-news.info

No Result
View All Result

© 2023 earth-news.info

No Result
View All Result

© 2023 earth-news.info

Go to mobile version