Shares in Asia edged higher to defy a mixed day on Wall Street as speculation gained that the tech sector rally may be running out of steam.
Equities in South Korea, Australia and Japan advanced. Stock futures in Hong Kong pointed up as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, a gauge of US-listed Chinese shares, climbed 1.3% on Monday. While various non-tech sectors advanced on Monday, Nvidia extended a three-day rout of about $430 billion — crossing the technical threshold of a correction. Energy and financial shares rose while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 lost over 1%.
Treasury 10-year yields steadied in early trading after falling two basis points in the previous session. The greenback climbed against most of its Group-of-10-peers after retreating on Monday.
“Asian equity markets are set for a mixed open today,” wrote Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia Pty Ltd. in a note. “Lower US yields and a pullback in the US dollar will offer some support, along with possible month-end re-balancing buy flows in both the Nikkei and China stock markets.”
In Asia, traders will be watching for further signs of pressure on the world’s second-biggest economy. Data released Monday showed China’s fiscal revenue shrank at the fastest pace in more than a year, fueling expectations that the government could make another rare mid-year budget revision to aid a recovery.
Elsewhere, Japan’s top currency official warned that authorities stood ready to intervene in markets 24 hours a day if necessary as the yen remained under pressure, not far from the weakest level in about 34 years. Some traders even see the potential for the yen to slump as far as 170 per dollar.
The S&P 500 is expected to close the year at 5,606, according to a median of 586 responses in a survey. That’s less than 3% above current levels, indicating that the rally has little left after a 14% gain so far in 2024. Additionally, almost half of survey participants expect a correction to begin later this year.
“We remain concerned about a near-term unwind of many year-to-date leaders,” said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG. “If the S&P 500 is going to avoid a bigger pullback into July, bulls need to see continued rotation below the surface.”
Following a tech-led rally, Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha said US equities are set to pause. There’s a lot of good news baked into markets, and if that optimism proves unjustified, there could be downside risks, Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets noted. To John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer, while the bull market appears sustainable, some profit-taking should be expected.
“A decline in the tech sector is certainly possible, even if the sector is going to do well during the summer months overall,” Matt Maley at Miller Tabak noted. “Even if you agree with the most-bullish scenario for the AI phenomenon for the second half of 2024, no group moves in a straight line.”
In commodities, oil climbed, with a softer dollar and rising tensions with Russia providing support.
Bitcoin rebounded after plunging 6.6% on Monday. Losses are piling up in the crypto market after its second-worst weekly decline of 2024, a reflection of cooling demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and uncertainty over monetary policy.
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