Asian Stocks to Fall as US CPI Shifts Into Focus: Markets Wrap

Japanese equities staged one of their most significant pullbacks in months as the yen strengthened, leading a broadly downbeat day across Asia.

Author of the article:

Bloomberg News

Richard Henderson

Published Mar 10, 2024 • Last updated 42 minutes ago • 4 minute read

pynila14f2hqmdwsw79}eshk_media_dl_1.png CFTC, Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — Japanese equities staged one of their most significant pullbacks in months as the yen strengthened, leading a broadly downbeat day across Asia.

The Topix index of Japanese equities faced its biggest one-day drop since October, weighed down by the tech sector which lost almost 3%. Chip stocks within the benchmark slumped around 4% in a move that echoed pressure on AI-related stocks seen on Friday in the US, when Nvidia Corp. slipped 5.6%.

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Equities in Australia and South Korea also declined, sending a gauge of regional shares down after three days of gains. US futures were steady after falls on Wall Street at the end of last week, where both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 slipped.

In Japan, economic growth expanded in the fourth quarter, supporting expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates for the first time since 2007 as soon as this month. Declines for Japanese shares partly reflected the stronger yen, which typically acts as a headwind for the country’s equities.

The currency was firmer against the greenback in early trading Monday, extending its 2% rally last week against the US currency — its best weekly gain since July. Japanese bond yields gained on a report stating that the BOJ is considering scrapping its yield curve control program.

“Perhaps, Japan is finally coming out of this deflationary vortex and that could have profound implications on Japanese assets,” said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi Asset Management, explaining that this will be supportive for the yen through repatriation flows, mainly going into stocks.

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Chinese equities ran against the gloom to trade higher. The advance was helped along by the first rise in consumer prices since August. The 0.7% increase in February CPI exceeded consensus estimates and is welcome news for investors worried about deflation in the world’s second largest economy.

The gains come even despite a lackluster set of announcements from the National People’s Congress that many China-watchers see as a lost opportunity to support confidence.

“We haven’t see anything done about the social safety net, so households don’t feel they have to save as much as they are,” Charlene Chu, China macro financial analyst for Autonomous Research, said on Bloomberg Television. Such measures would “help address some of these consumption issues,” that are weighing on confidence, she said.

Soft Landing

Tuesday’s US consumer price index figures will dominate the economic data reports this week. The core prices gauge is seen rising 0.3% in February from a month earlier, and 3.7% on a year-over-year basis — which would be the smallest annual rise since April 2021.

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Further moderation in US prices would support the disinflation narrative that broadly remains in tact, despite a pullback in the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year. Swaps pricing shows three cuts are anticipated in 2024, down from six at the start of the year.

Last week’s US jobs data did little to change that outlook. The jobless rate touched a two-year high, even as the number of new jobs added exceeded estimates. The mixed signal points to a slowly cooling labor market that, for now, supports expectations for a soft landing in the US economy.

The jobs report “didn’t necessarily amount to an ‘all-clear’ signal for the Fed, but there also didn’t appear to be anything in it that would derail its plan to cut rates,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

Yields in Australia were largely flat Monday, reflecting the steady trading in Treasuries in Asia. An index of the dollar was weaker after falling 1% last week — the worst weekly showing since December.

In commodities, oil held a loss Monday ahead of reports from OPEC and the IEA this week that may provide clues on the demand outlook. Gold edged higher, extending Friday’s almost 1% gain. Bitcoin fell below $68,000.

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Key Events This Week:

CPI reports for Argentina, Brazil, Germany, India, US, TuesdayUK jobless claims, unemployment, TuesdayJapan PPI, TuesdayIndia industrial production, TuesdayMexico international reserves, industrial production, TuesdayPhilippines trade, TuesdayTurkey industrial production, current account, TuesdayEU finance ministers meet in Brussels, TuesdayECB Governing Council Member Robert Holzmann speaks, TuesdayEurozone, UK industrial production, WednesdayIndia trade, WednesdaySouth Korea jobless rate, WednesdayECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras speaks, WednesdaySwedish Riksbank First Deputy Governor and Deputy Governor speak, WednesdaySaudi Arabia, Spain CPI, ThursdayUS PPI, retail sales, initial jobless claims, business inventories, ThursdayAustralia Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers pre-budget address, ThursdayCanada housing starts, FridayChina property prices, FridayFrance, Italy, Poland CPI, FridayIndonesia trade, FridayJapan tertiary index, FridayNew Zealand PMI, FridayPhilippines overseas remittances, FridaySri Lanka GDPUS industrial production, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Empire Manufacturing, FridayJapan’s largest union federation announces results of annual wage negotiations, Friday

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Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 10:42 a.m. Tokyo timeNikkei 225 futures (OSE) fell 2.4%Japan’s Topix fell 1.9%Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.3%Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.5%The Shanghai Composite was little changedEuro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.4%

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%The euro was little changed at $1.0944The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 146.72 per dollarThe offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1969 per dollarThe Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6625

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin fell 2.1% to $67,938.16Ether fell 2.6% to $3,805.61

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.06%Japan’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 0.760%Australia’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 3.96%

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $77.48 a barrelSpot gold rose 0.1% to $2,181.43 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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