Biden Trails Trump In 7 Battleground States—Shedding Support Among Key Demographics

Topline

President Joe Biden would lose each of the seven battleground states likely to decide the 2024 presidential election to former President Donald Trump if the contest were held today, according to a new poll that shows Biden is struggling to reach key demographics, including Black voters and young people.

US President Joe Biden meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on … [+] December 12, 2023. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)

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Key Facts

Biden would lose each of the seven swing states by a range of two points in Pennsylvania, to nine points in North Carolina, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey that shows Trump leads by a cumulative average of five points.

Overall, 58% of voters in the seven swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—have a negative view of Biden, compared to 53% who have a negative view of Trump, according to the Nov. 27-Dec. 6 poll of 4,935 registered voters (margin of error 1 point).

The findings show a widening rift between Biden and his base—more people, 23%, who voted for Biden in 2020 are dissatisfied with him versus Trump voters who say they’re unhappy with the former president (17%).

Biden’s overall support among Black voters has also dropped since October, as has their trust in him to handle the economy, the survey found.

Voters’ negative sentiment about Biden’s ability to handle the economy—what respondents said was the top issue for them in the 2024 election—extends to all survey participants, who say they trust Trump more than Biden to handle the economy overall, including a number of key issues: housing, interest rates, inflation and balancing the federal budget.

Despite heavily promoting his “pro-union” stance and forgiving $127 billion in student loans, Biden has lost support since October among voters in Michigan, where he became the first US president in history to join a picket line in September alongside striking United Auto Workers union members, while a plurality of Gen Z voters say he could be doing more to help with their student loan payments.

Surprising Fact

20%. That’s the share of Democrats who agree with the GOP-led impeachment inquiry into Biden, according to the survey. The House voted Wednesday to formalize the inquiry in a move designed to strengthen GOP-led committees’ requests for records and testimony from Biden, his associates and government agencies they believe have information that could aid their probe.

Tangent

Trump’s cumulative lead in the seven swing states increases by two points, from 5% to 7%, when declared independent and third-party candidates are on the ballot, such as independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, the results show.

Big Number

2.3. That’s the number of points Trump leads Biden by, nationally, in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average, which shows Trump ahead or tied with Biden in nine of the last 10 polls cited.

Key Background

Thursday’s survey is the latest to show Trump beating Biden in the seven swing states, six of which Biden won in 2020, with the exception of North Carolina. Voters consistently cite economic concerns as the driving factor behind their dissatisfaction with Biden, amid an interest rate-hiking campaign and a 30-year high in inflation last summer. Voters also point to concerns about Biden’s age (81). In recent months, the Israel-Hamas war has also hurt Biden with voters, a majority of whom disapprove of his handling of the conflict, according to a recent CBS poll. Meanwhile, Trump has carved out a commanding lead in the GOP primary field, to 50% above Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, despite four criminal indictments and a number of ongoing civil cases. There are some signs a conviction could hurt the former president, however, as 31% of GOP voters say they won’t vote for him if he’s convicted, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.

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