TL;DR
Bitcoin’s Surge: Bitcoin rose 20% in a week to $34,032, driven by BTC spot ETF hype and trader consolidation. Predictions hint at $40k by Q4 2023.
Favorable Economic Climate: Concerns of global inflation and geopolitical tensions make the environment more conducive for Bitcoin’s growth.
2024 Outlook: The BTC halving in April 2024 is anticipated to push prices, but uncertainties in the ETF approval process and potential sales pose risks.
Why is Bitcoin Surging?
October has been a bullish month so far for most cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin is taking the lead.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $34,032, a 20% increase in a week and 105% year-to-date. Even with global economic uncertainty, the massive capital outflows from the crypto market, and a larger decline in the DeFi sector, Bitcoin has remained the leading cryptocurrency of 2023.
David Lo, Head of Financial Logics, Bybit, said we can expect BTC to go as high as 40k in Q4.
According to a report from Lo, the main forces driving BTC’s growth are the hype surrounding the BTC spot ETF news and the consolidation of traders. Following the hype, many traders and analysts have forecasted their price predictions and technical charts, most of them agreeing that $31k and $32k are targets that need to be held for confirmation of a longer-term bull market.
Lo stated that BTC and the overall crypto market are returning to a more “volatile and normalized trading environment,” which curiously comes after concerns of possible higher levels of inflation and rising geopolitical tensions worldwide.
“In the early stages of a bull market, bitcoin typically leads the pack and its dominance rises. With the $31,000 level now acting as the new support level, the next target for bitcoin is $36,000, with $40,000 in sight given the rising volatility.”
The Best Scenario for BTC
Lo referred to the news from Bill Ackman, a billionaire hedge fund manager who recently covered his short position in US treasuries. Ackman stated that his reasoning for this was the growing concern of global inflation, deglobalization, and the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
This is the sort of scenario that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies shine through, a thought shared by Max Keiser, crypto advocate and founder of Volcano Energy. According to Keiser, Bitcoin thrives during “social unrest and societal breakdown.”
Rising inflation and hawkish monetary policies from the Fed will likely be beneficial for Bitcoin holders. Overall, the macro environment is becoming more favorable for BTC holders, according to Lo.
2024 is Full of Rewards… and Risks
April 2024 is the next date for the BTC halving, a major event that will see the BTC rewards per block reduced by 50%. According to Binance’s CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the following months and years after the halving are when BTC hits new ATHs, citing data and events from the past.
All in all, it seems like 2024 could be filled with the necessary economic and geopolitical factors for BTC to price in. However, there are some risks we should be mindful of, according to Lo:
“For example, the pace of the bitcoin spot ETF approval process in the US remains uncertain. Additionally, there is the potential for GBTC holders and various bankruptcy estates to sell bitcoin, which could put downward pressure on prices.”
That said, Bitcoin is currently very sensitive to any ETF-related news, especially if it comes from BlackRock. As CryptoPotato reported, The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) removed BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, iBTC, from its ETF list shortly after it was added on Monday, triggering $37 million in long liquidations across the crypto market within the past hour. The ticker has since then appeared on the site again.
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