By Chris Steyn
The ruling African National Congress (ANC) will win 39% of the vote in the 2024 General Election, while the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) will get 27%, and former President Jacob Zuma’s new MK will rake in 13%. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) will come in at 10%.
That is according to the Survey of South African Voter Opinion released at midnight by the Brenthurst Foundation and the SABI Strategy Group.
The nationally representative telephonic survey of registered voters was conducted between 12 and 28 February.
The survey also found that over three-quarters of respondents would be happy to see a coalition govern South Africa.
The Multi-Party Charter (MPC) – set to collectively gain 33% of the vote – is favoured over other options.
In terms of foreign policy, respondents overwhelmingly favour the West and other democratic countries over BRICS.
Furthermore, the ANC’s stance on the Russia/Ukraine conflict is alienating one quarter of voters, and 23% are also less likely to vote for the ruling party given its stance on the Israel/Hamas conflict.
Read the full survey and analysis below:
Jacob Zuma’s MK Party Third Largest as ANC Tumbles and DA Surges, New Survey Shows
Issued by the Brenthurst Foundation
The Brenthurst Foundation’s election survey conducted by SABI Strategy in February and March 2024, shows that John Steenhuisen’s DA and Jacob Zuma’s MK Party are the biggest winners as the ANC, EFF and the IFP are losing ground.
National Election
Voters appear to have left the ANC, EFF and IFP for Zuma’s party in significant numbers. The MK Party is set to overtake the EFF (10%) with 13% of the vote.
The DA has grown its share of the vote to 27% (from 23% in October 2023).
The IFP’s support has fallen to 2% (from 7% in October 2023).
The Multiparty Charter (MPC) coalition (DA, IFP, ActionSA, FF+, ACDP among others) has 33% of the vote (down from 36% in October 2023) .
South Africa will almost certainly have a coalition government after this election as the ANC has slid further to 39% of the vote.
Key Provinces
GAUTENG: The DA has 32% of the vote (up from 24% in October 2023) and the ANC has 34% (down from 37% in October 2023). The MPC coaltiion (DA, IFP, ActionSA, FF+, ACDP among others) has 38% of the vote. A coalition government will run this province.
KWAZULU NATAL: Zuma’s MK Party is set to be the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal with 25% of the vote with the ANC (20%), DA (19%) and the IFP (19%) running neck-and-neck.
The aggregated vote for the MPC is 39%. A coalition government will run this province.
THE WESTERN CAPE: The DA looks set to continue to run the Western Cape, with a majority of 53% (down from 56% in October 2023) while the ANC has risen sharply to 35% from 22% in October 2023.
Issues
80% of voters said the country was going in the wrong direction with just 17% saying it was going in the right direction.
Voters said the biggest facing South Africa were unemployment (28%), corruption (27%), load shedding (17%) and weak leadership (12%).
Weak leadership (12%) overtook crime (11%) as the fourth most pressing issue.
Over half (53%) said “The ANC government of the last three decades” was to blame, followed by 11% who said apartheid was to blame.
Foreign Policy
Some 43% of voters believe that South Africa should align itself with the West and other democratic nations, with 22% saying it should align itself with Africa and only 19% saying it should align itself with BRICS, suggesting that the ANC’s decision to move into the BRICS camp may be costing it votes.
More than 50% of voters said the ANC’s policy on the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas conflicts would not affect the way they voted.
24% of voters said they were “less likely” to vote for the ANC as a result of its policy on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
23% of voters said they were “less likely” to vote for the ANC over its stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
23% of voters said they were “less likely” to vote for the ANC over its stance on Zimbabwe.
Domestic Policy
39% of voters said the best way to put more money in people’s pockets was by “making it easier to start small businesses”. A further 25% said “reducing taxes” while 20% said “increasing social grants” and 10% said “decreasing the cost of the civil service.
42% said social grant payments should be increased. Asked how this should be funded, 51% said by “spending less on civil servants” and 22% said by increasing taxes.
Asked how government could decrease the cost of the civil service, 45% said by reducing the size of the civil service by 10% or more. A further 35% said by “cutting civil service salaries and perks”.
Governance
32% of voters said the Western Cape was South Africa’s best governed province with Gauteng a distant second at 18%.
33% said Cape Town was the country’s best governed city. Johannesburg was second with just 12%.
An equal number of voters (33%) believe the DA and the ANC are the parties most effective at governing with the EFF a distant third with 9%.
Favourability
Voters were asked who they rated favourably and who they rated unfavourably. The net overall favourability score was obtained by subtracting unfavourability from favourability.
The DA enjoyed the highest overall favourability ranking for political parties (4%) with the ANC second (-4%). Least favourable was the FF+ (-31%), with the IFP and the EFF scoring -30%.
Cyril Ramaphosa (6%) and John Steenhuisen (-6%) had the best overall favourability rating followed by the IFP’s Velenkosi Hlabisa (-12%) with Jacob Zuma with the worst ranking at -31% and Julius Malema close behind with -29%.
Coalitions
76% of voters said they would be happy for a coalition to govern South Africa, up from 74% in October 2023. 61% said they believed a coalition of many different parties could “effectively govern” South Africa.
Asked about which coalitions they favoured, 29% said the Multiparty Charter coalition (DA, IFP, Action SA, FF+, ACDP and others), 25% said an ANC-DA coalition and 24% said an ANC-EFF coalition.
26% of South Africans said they were more likely to vote for an opposition party following the launch of the MPC.
Comment by The Brenthurst Foundation Director, Dr Greg Mills:
“South Africa’s political environment has been substantially shaken up and the old assumptions are no longer true. There is a viable and competitive opposition emerging. We are heading for a transition away from one-party dominance, which can only be good for democracy, policy competitiveness, delivery and accountability.”
Read also:
Daily poll updates confirms Zuma’s MK is election’24 gamechanger
SRF polls show that Zuma-backed party could be the straw to break the ANC’s back
Ipsos polls show that ANC faces a majority loss as EFF gains ground
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