China’s economic forecast revised upwards by IMF amid concerns over property sector

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecast for China upwards, citing strong economic performance in the third quarter of 2023 and the implementation of stimulus measures such as the issuance of $140 billion bonds for flood recovery and climate resilience programs. The IMF now predicts a growth rate of 5.4% in 2023, up from previous estimates, and 4.6% in 2024.

Despite the optimistic outlook, the IMF also identified potential risks within China’s financial and property sectors. Gita Gopinath of the IMF expressed concerns about the struggling housing sector, which has been characterized by falling prices, declining sales, and loan defaults by major developers. A second downturn in this sector could hinder the country’s economic recovery.

To facilitate recovery, the IMF suggested that insolvent developers should exit the industry. It also questioned the adequacy of financial reserves within China’s banking system in light of the ongoing housing deflation. In response to these concerns, Zhang Qingsong from China’s central bank acknowledged these issues and advocated for new growth strategies, including increased lending for factory construction and other industrial investments.

In addition to domestic issues, a report by the AidData institute at William and Mary brought attention to China’s substantial rescue loans to developing countries that are indebted due to infrastructure projects. Despite criticism, Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, defended these overseas lending practices.

Meanwhile, China reported a 6.6% drop in exports last month attributed to depreciation. This occurred alongside an increase in imports, despite a global decrease in interest for manufactured goods. These developments underscore the complex challenges facing China as it navigates its economic future amidst both domestic and international pressures.

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