Coinbase Global Stock Forecast: COIN skyrockets on Friday after returning to profitability

Coinbase traded up as much as 13% on Friday following earnings.
Q4 2023 gave Coinbase its first profitable quarter in nearly two years.
Coinbase earned $1.04 per share on a GAAP basis in Q4.
Q1 2024 received an upward revision in expected revenue from management.

Coinbase Global (COIN) stock soared as much as 13% on Friday following the market’s broad recognition of its fourth-quarter earnings success before closing up 8.8% at $180.29. The US crypto platform is sort of a “last man standing” after FTX and Binance were both leveled in the past 18 months by legal charges.

Coinbase stock’s end of the week rally arrived in a down session after the US Producer Price Index showed that inflation remained afoot in January. The market read that report as yet another sign that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would delay interest rate cuts.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both slumped by slightly less than half a percentage point, while the NASDAQ toppled by 0.8%. 

Coinbase stock news

Profitability was the great surprise from the earnings call, though maybe it shouldn’t have been since CEO Brian Armstrong has spent the past two years trimming his workforce. Coinbase earned $1.04 in GAAP EPS during the fourth quarter despite Wall Street consensus estimating the company would barely make a profit. This came after seven consecutive quarters of GAAP losses.

“I’m proud to say that in 2023, we cut costs by 45% YoY and managed to ship product faster with a lean team,” said CEO Brian Armstrong. “This led to $95 million of positive net income for 2023, $964 million in positive adjusted EBITDA and total revenue of $3.1 billion.”

For the fourth quarter, specifically, Coinbase saw revenue grow 52% from a year ago to $954 million. This figure bested the quarter’s consensus by $135 million.

In regard to the current quarter, Armstrong touted Coinbase being selected as custodian by eight of 11 of the spot Bitcoin ETFs that were approved in January. He also lauded the company’s strides in the crypto derivatives market. 

Management said that subscription and services revenue in the first quarter will post somewhere between $410 million and $480 million. The midpoint of that range is about $60 million above consensus, which excited traders.

Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs

Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.

Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.

Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.

Coinbase stock forecast

Coinbase stock overcame the prior resistance mark from the range high near $187 in Decemer 2023, two months ago. On Friday, COIN stock reached an intraday high of $193.64. This was the highest level that COIN stock has traded at since late March of 2022, nearly two years ago.

The bad sign for traders is that the daily candlestick was a long red one. This is because COIN stock reached its intraday high early in the session and then sold off from there. To ensure that a drawdown doesn’t ensue, bulls need to push Coinbase stock back above the former resistance at $187.

COIN daily stock chart

The weekly chart below shows that Coinbase stock is already overbought as it has reached the significant 70 level on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This is another check in the column for cons and may persuade certain bulls to wait for a lower-priced entry.

The wide blue channel shows the high volume range between $160 and $217 wherein COIN saw heavy rotation from January through April of 2022. The $206 level at that time showed particular resistance during that trading era. 

COIN weekly stock chart

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