Topline
Major stock indexes are on pace for their worst respective day in weeks Tuesday as a growing chorus of Wall Street experts throw cold water on equities’ remarkable rebound this year.
Tuesday tested bulls on Wall Street.
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Key Facts
The Dow Jones industrial average slid 245 points, or 0.7%, by noon EDT, while the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively, thanks in part to renewed concerns about eChina’s economic recovery.
That’s the Dow’s largest daily loss since May 24, the S&P’s worst day since May 31 and the Nasdaq’s biggest two-day decline since May 23 to May 24.
The slide came after Morgan Stanley’s chief strategist, Michael Wilson, reiterated his pessimistic market outlook despite the S&P’s 15% rally year-to-date and
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Wilson set a 4,200 year-end price target for the S&P, indicating a 4% downside, in line with the 4,000 to 4,200 forecast set by Wells Fargo last week, implying the index could dip between 4% and 9% from its current 4,380 level.
At that price, the S&P “is aggressively pricing in a lot of good things occurring and virtually zero negative surprises,” Sevens Report analyst Tom Essaye wrote Tuesday, dubbing the rationale for stocks’ extended gains little more than a “nirvana” moment where inflation crashes down even further and corporate earnings soar.
Crucial Quote
“The divergence between growth and value is nothing short of eye-popping,” Wells Fargo Investment Institute President Darrell Cronk said on a call with reporters Wednesday, pointing to the S&P’s historically bloated valuation comparing expected profits and current share prices. Both Essaye and Wilson similarly pointed out the S&P is trading at a roughly 30% higher price-to-earnings ratio than it did last fall.
Big Number
3.3%. That’s the median year-to-date return of the 500 stocks on the S&P, according to FactSet data, about 1,100 basis points lower than the index’s overall performance, as mega-cap tech stocks like Apple and Alphabet account for a staggering portion of gains.
Key Background
Stocks’ slipup last year came as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the quickest pace in decades to combat inflation, as traders priced in what higher borrowing costs meant for corporate bottom lines. Though the Fed paused its hiking campaign last week, the vast majority of what the Fed has done is still only ticking through the engine right now,” Cronk said.
Contra
Bulls are still aplenty on Wall Street. Bank of America declared the “official” end of the bear market earlier this month, while Goldman Sachs hiked its year-end target for the S&P by 13% last week to 4,500.
Further Reading
Bear Market Is Over—BofA Declares—But These Are The Warning Signs Others Are Watching (Forbes)
Here’s How Stocks Performed After The Fed Stopped Hiking Rates In The Past (Forbes)
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