The Election’24 collapse of a once-impregnable ANC has thrown up numerous options for South Africa – and politicians entrusted by the electorate to turn around a country that has been sliding for over a decade. The longest serving Member of South Africa’s Parliament, Dr Corne’ Mulder of FF+, explains the options being presented to the newly elected lawmakers – and their parties – in the coming fortnight. With apologies to Winston Churchill, never before, in the young democracy, has so much depended on the actions of so few. Dr Mulder spoke to BizNews editor Alec Hogg.
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Summary of the interview
Dr. Corne’ Mulder, a seasoned participant in South African elections, reflects on the recent significant shift in the political landscape. He notes the surprising and steep decline of the ANC, a trend confirmed by preliminary election results. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+), despite past successes, saw its support decrease from 2.5% in 2019 to around 1.5%. Mulder attributes this drop to improved strategies by the Democratic Alliance (DA), which successfully recaptured votes previously lost to FF+.
Mulder discusses potential coalition dynamics, emphasizing that the ANC may form alliances to retain power, despite its reduced support. He speculates about possible outcomes, including an ANC partnership with the DA to ensure stable governance or a more unstable coalition with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and other groups. He suggests that the ANC’s internal decisions and pressure from various sectors could influence these alliances.
Highlighting the broader implications, Mulder points out that a coalition government might strengthen South Africa’s constitutional framework by fostering greater separation between the executive and legislative branches. He remains hopeful that strategic cooperation could lead to positive reforms and economic growth, but acknowledges that the coming weeks of political negotiations will be crucial in shaping the country’s future.
Edited transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Alec Hogg (00:09.806) Dr. Corne’ Mulder has a veteran’s view of elections, participating in more of them than anyone else in the National Assembly. Although the final results aren’t in, they’re largely settled. We’ll hear Dr. Mulder’s thoughts on South Africa’s direction.
Alec Hogg (00:41.294) Cornel, we’ve discussed this election for a while. You’ve been predicting something significant. The ANC’s drop was more dramatic than expected. The pollsters were generally accurate, but the last-minute shifts were surprising. Let’s start with your party.
You had a strong 2019, going from 1% to 2.5%. Now, you’re around 1.5%, which isn’t bad historically, but not as good as 2019. How’s the mood in the Freedom Front Plus camp?
Dr. Corne Mulder (01:39.375) You’re right, Alec. It’s unfortunate we couldn’t maintain our 2019 position. Some results from Tuane, a stronghold, are still pending, but the trend is clear. We’ll likely end up around 1.5%, a decline. In 2019, we benefited from our opponents’ mistakes, like the DA’s issues. The DA has since corrected those mistakes, regaining many votes.
In 1999, we also struggled. We had a positive campaign then, but the DA’s ‘fight back’ slogan resonated more. This year, our positive message didn’t match the electorate’s mood. The DA’s ‘rescue South Africa’ campaign was effective.
Alec Hogg (04:00.174) Isn’t that interesting? We tend to focus more on bad news, as Kahneman’s “Thinking Fast and Slow” suggests. Negative campaigns often succeed over hopeful ones. It’s sad, but hopefully, things will change.
Dr. Corne Mulder (04:24.175) Absolutely. It was easier to get votes against something than for something positive. Our party will analyze this and move forward.
Alec Hogg (04:43.726) The exciting part is we have a new era. You’ve seen it all. What do you make of this moment? Have you seen anything like this before?
Dr. Corne Mulder (04:50.019) Yes, I was there when the ANC came to power. I hoped to see them lose power, and now it’s happening. They might try to stay in power through coalitions, but with around 41-42% support, they’ve dramatically declined. This will bring a new dispensation once the results are certified.
Alec Hogg (05:36.814) What happens in the negotiations now? There’s a 14-day window. Even with fewer seats, you’re still a player.
Dr. Corne Mulder (05:48.655) Every seat counts. Results will be certified soon, and Parliament will meet to elect new leaders. Negotiations will start, and the ANC will try to form a majority. The MK has said they won’t cooperate with the ANC, but that could change if Ramaphosa is replaced. The EFF might be excluded as they didn’t do well. The ANC could reach out to the DA for a stable government. The DA might prefer forming a coalition with other parties.
Dr. Corne Mulder (08:01.647) It’s an interesting discussion. Smaller parties in the multiparty charter might not be needed for a majority. The ANC could govern as a minority, which would be unstable. We might end up with 20+ parties in Parliament, unlike the past.
Alec Hogg (08:56.846) It will be interesting to see new parties like Rize and Action SA in Parliament. What about you, Cornel? Will you stay in the National Assembly?
Dr. Corne Mulder (09:11.087) Yes, I’ll likely remain in the National Assembly, unless the DA doesn’t need a coalition in the Western Cape. Then, I’ll focus on the National Assembly.
Dr. Corne Mulder (09:22.831) The IEC’s incompetence affected voter turnout. The independent candidates didn’t perform well, complicating the voting process and confusing people.
Alec Hogg (11:01.838) Dr. Frans Cronje suggests the ANC has two options: a deal with the multi-party charter/DA, or a coalition with MK and EFF. The first option could be great for the country. The second would be disastrous. Are these feasible?
Dr. Corne Mulder (12:47.215) Cronje is spot on. If the ANC clings to power, it will harm South Africa. The first option would create a strong separation between the executive and legislative branches, forcing cooperation. It could be very beneficial for the country.
Alec Hogg (14:55.79) It’s an extraordinary time. Could there be more resistance before we reach a better future?
Dr. Corne Mulder (15:21.551) Hopefully not, but every day lost makes it harder to turn things around. If the ANC chooses the wrong path, local government structures will collapse further by 2029.
Alec Hogg (16:46.926) MK is well-funded, and there’s a connection to Putin. Could this influence KwaZulu-Natal?
Dr. Corne Mulder (17:33.967) Yes, MK might try to govern KZN with the IFP, despite differences. MK’s focus is on KZN, not necessarily the Kremlin. Zuma’s influence will fade, leading to new leadership and possible unification in KZN.
Alec Hogg (18:51.694) The Western Cape seems settled with the DA majority.
Dr. Corne Mulder (19:02.223) Yes, but the DA needs to deliver on devolution of power. We need more local control in the Western Cape, which could be easier with a weakened ANC.
Alec Hogg (19:45.966) Any positives in Gauteng?
Dr. Corne Mulder (19:49.391) Gauteng remains unstable. Forming a stable government will be challenging.
Alec Hogg (20:27.79) If the ANC works with the multi-party coalition, could that translate to provincial levels?
Dr. Corne Mulder (20:35.759) Yes, if such an arrangement happens, it could be implemented in places like Gauteng.
Alec Hogg (20:50.446) Fascinating insights. Your life has become more interesting. Those of us watching are more engaged. It would be nice to have a boring country for a change.
Dr. Corne Mulder (21:11.727) In Europe, news can be boring. In South Africa, we deal with much more interesting issues.
Alec Hogg (21:29.006) Indeed. Dr. Corne’ Mulder from Freedom Front Plus and I’m Alec Hogg from BizNews.com.
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