Reviewing the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcements following the April meeting, Rabobank analysts noted that the ECB gave some strong hints that there will be a reduction in the policy rate in June.
ECB is now more concerned of falling behind the curve
“Although persistent price pressures in services remain somewhat of a concern, this doesn’t appear to be in the way of a first cut at the next policy meeting. As we explain here, the Council seems to have made up its mind now that i) the data (in the form of a weak economy and disinflationary forces) have continued to move in the right direction and that ii) a few cuts (let’s start with one) would still keep policy sufficiently restrictive so as to not derail the disinflation process.”
“Despite its mantra of ‘data dependence’ and inflation not having reached its target yet, the Council seems pretty convinced that a cut would be appropriate. “We will not wait for everything to be 2% before we cut”, captures the idea that ECB is now more concerned of falling behind the curve at some point than making an policy error by easing too quickly and sustaining the stickiness services inflation and/or tightness in the labor market. But by emphasizing its data dependence and that it is not pre-committing to any kind of easing trajectory, it probably believes that it can keep the risk of that second scenario materializing at an acceptable level.”
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