Since 1929, the Institute of Race Relations has been a vital voice of truth in South Africa. CEO John Endres discusses the critical moment facing the nation and how the future rests in the hands of the ANC’s National Executive Committee. He highlights the profound impact their decisions will have on every South African’s life, emphasizing the importance of informed and evidence-based guidance.
Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.
Watch here
Listen here
Highlights from the interview
Since 1929, the Institute of Race Relations has delivered the facts and provided evidence-based guidance, serving SA as the ultimate ’truth to power” voice. In this interview, CEO John Endres explains why we are at a pivotal moment and how it happened that the country’s future has been entrusted to a few dozen people – members of the ANC’s ‘collective’ decision-making body, its National Executive Committee. Endres explains why the way these worthies jump will directly impact the lives of each South African for many years to come.
Edited transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Alec Hogg (00:08.697)
You know, if you want to be dramatic, you could say that South Africa is at the most important point in her history. Well, certainly the young democracy is South Africa’s had many challenges in the past, which it’s overcome. But this is a big one, a really, really big one. And today we talk with John Endres. He’s the chief executive of the Institute for Race Relations. It’s South Africa’s leading think tank. It’s been around since 1929 and calling power to account for all of that time. We will find out what John’s thoughts are today on the latest developments in South Africa after historic election results.
Such a proud institution, the Institute for Race Relations. And maybe not too many people know or have forgotten that your predecessor, France Crognet, who’s now almost a little bit of an oracle, it seems, when it comes to the political situation in South Africa, was a CEO before you for some years. John, how do you guys come to the conclusions that you come to? And why I’m asking this is there are so many empty vessels around trying to make a statement and perhaps find themselves in the spotlight. But the IR has been doing it since 1929. So clearly there’s some kind of a formula that you use that works.
John Endres (01:35.502)
Well, I think the origin of our analysis is always based in data. And that can include demographic data, economic data, trade data, political data, and polling data as well, of course. And because we have these very long time series dating back decades, and have spent so many years looking at that data and trying to understand it, trying to figure out South Africa, I think that has given us a very good institutional background to doing so. And another component of that is that we have very fierce internal debates.
So we’re always challenging each other, taking opposing viewpoints, steel manning each other. And I think that allows us to arrive at some pretty good conclusions and also conclusions that allow us to look further ahead than maybe many other commentators do. So we do try to think in terms of decades rather than just the next quarter.
Alec Hogg (02:24.729)
We’re really blessed in South Africa by institutions like yours and even our polling as it was, the point was made by France that the pollsters in South Africa got it just about as accurate as you could ever imagine, even though it was a very, very difficult election to call. But let’s go into the results of the election. And we are now sitting with, without trying to exaggerate it, constitutionalists against those who don’t want a constitution.
The open way of government versus the big man of Africa approach, centrists, autocrats versus Democrats. And actually, if you want to put it into a global context, we have an open society approach, as we see in many of the democracies in the West, to a Putin-driven approach of the centre knows best. And there’s no doubt that there has been some influence of the Kremlin in this election.
We had two parties extremely well funded and nobody seems to know where the money came from, but many have suspicions. So it really is a dramatic time in our history. The balls in the court of the ANC. Just unpack for us though, who in the ANC is actually going to be making the decision? Clearly it’s not Sir Roramapuzza on his own.
John Endres (03:50.766)
Yeah, I think I’ll rewind a little bit, Alec, and just go back to where you said that this is a pivotal moment in South Africa’s history. And I think that is a comment that’s been made often about many moments of South Africa’s history. But in this case, I think it is truly the case. And what we’ve seen happen over the past week is a crystallization of the situation that the country finds itself in, and a sort of clearing up of the situation that we are in. And you encapsulated well.
By saying that it is the constitutionalists versus the radicals or the populists, and that is the decision South Africa now has to make. I think on the side of the constitutionalists, you find many of the political parties, including the ones that were in the multi -party charter. And of course, the Democratic Alliance is the largest member of that alliance. And on the other side, you find very clearly the MK party under Jacob Zuma and the EFF. And the ANC at the moment is caught in the middle. So it now needs to make a call.
Does it want to move to the side of the constitutionalists or to the side of the radicals? And both of those sides are offering some appealing benefits. And it is the ANC that now has to weigh those pros and cons on each side in order to come to a conclusion. That is not going to be easy, I think, for the ANC, which has a history of collective decision-making and also a leader who has preferred, I think, to govern by consensus rather than by making tough calls.
And at the moment, right now, I do think that the ANC is undergoing precisely that process of internal reflection within the NEC, with factions battling it out, trying to present their arguments in the strongest possible way in order to sway that decision one way or the other. So once again, the fate of South Africa and the outcome depends on a rather small group of people. And you’ll remember in 2017, at the ANC conference…
We were talking about the four and a half thousand delegates and who they would choose to lead them over the next five years and how that vote depended on the decisions of such a small number of people, which then ultimately determined what happened in South Africa over the next five years. And now once again, we are in that situation. In this case, it’s about 80, just over 80 people in the NEC who will have to make that decision and give a mandate to the leadership of the ANC to negotiate with either the DA and MPC parties or the MK and EFF and on that hinges a great deal.
Alec Hogg (06:23.609)
So let’s just have a look at that group of people, the National Executive Committee, 80 people elected by members of the ANC, the top six. So that takes us to 86 and then some ex-officio members. So no one seems to know exactly how many people, but let’s just be conservative and say a hundred. There are a hundred people. Why would those a hundred people be given so much power on the one hand and secondly, in a democracy, and secondly, how well informed are they?
In being able to make that decision at this, as you say, pivotal point in our country’s history.
John Endres (07:00.91)
Well, this is a consequence of the way the rulemaking is set up in South Africa. So we have a proportional representation system, which means that we tend to get a fragmentation of the party political spectrum. And it also gives a lot of power to the head office of the political parties. So party members would tend to toe the line of whatever head office tells them to do in parliament. And within the ANC, this decision making is, I think, called democratic centralism.
So you do have votes, you do make decisions based on democracy, but it is centralized and preferably you want everybody to think the same and have the same view on a situation. So you argue and you debate until you come to a conclusion. I think that is in a way, a slightly idealistic way of looking at it. Certainly there were stories about large sums of money changing hands in the 2017 conference, for example.
And that probably plays a role in making such decisions. At the same time, however, the decision-making is influenced, I think, both by personal interests and broader interests in terms of society and organizational aims. How that is going to play out really is difficult to tell from the outside. Are the members going to place their hopes in being able to retain positions of power?
Influence and patronage in the short term by allying with parties that support that kind of view on politics and the political system? Or are they going to worry that they’re going to be eaten up by the EFF and MK if they go into coalition with them? And so it’s between greed and fear that those decisions are made. And the outcome at this point, I would say is uncertain.
Alec Hogg (08:58.329)
One would hope that there are other influences on those NEC members through their societies, through people watching videos like this one and coming to the conclusion that my goodness, my children are going to be faced with a very difficult future, perhaps Venezuela, perhaps Zimbabwe, perhaps worse if there is the one option that is taken. And we’re already seeing this in KwaZulu Natal, videos now circulating that…
The MK Party has decided to take the law into its own hands. It’s now putting together mobs which are going through industrial areas, retail areas, pulling out people who are undocumented foreigners in their opinion, who and them and their employers must now be arrested and kicked out. And the votes have hardly been counted and it’s already starting like this. So it’s a very scary future for many South Africans when they have a look at this.
as potential that we might be going to. You did say that it’s up in the air, but what would you say the chances are of this NEC, of these 100 people making the right decision, which surely would be voting for economic growth and stability?
John Endres (10:14.446)
My hope is that it is fear of MK that will bring them to the right decision. And I do think that that fear exists and is real because MK, from its origin six months ago, launching to the third largest party with 15 % of the national vote and dominating KwaZulu -Natal, I think has put the fear of God into the ANC. And they must certainly be worried about what will happen if they are not in a position to oppose MK effectively.
The repercussions of what MK is doing stretch far beyond the borders of KZN. Of course, they affect the people living in that province, which is a large enough problem. But beyond that, of course, KwaZulu-Natal is economically very important. It is a very important transport hub through the port of Durban, for example, through the connection along the N3 between Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, through the industry, agriculture and KwaZulu-Natal. It’s a big prize for MK to try to snaffle.
And the ANC, I think, is wary of that and aware of it and should see that it is in its interest to mount the strongest possible opposition to the threat emanating from that province. I think that Jacob Zuma has recognized the process by which the state has weakened over the past 10 to 15 years, partly as a result of his own actions.
And the opportunity that represents as a power vacuum that can be filled by a decisive actor like MK and Jacob Zuma. If the ANC is going to respond to this, it will need to mount a concentrated response. It will not be enough to be tentative, to be indecisive, and to wait for things to unfold. So it is actually now time for the ANC to be decisive in recognizing the threat that it faces and making the right calls and responding to that threat.
Alec Hogg (12:12.665)
Does it have the steel to do so?
John Endres (12:17.39)
The steel does not seem to emanate from the top leadership. So I think Solroma Posa has not exactly built a reputation for firm leadership or guidance towards the rest of the party. And that approach is not going to work. So where can it get the steel from? Maybe from inside, internally. We’re not seeing that many signs, I think, of senior ANC leaders putting up their hands to say, okay, this is the direction in which we need to go. This is what we need to do.
Maybe Fikile Mbalula is starting to do that in recent days. But what might be necessary is for that steel to come from the outside. And that is from various actors. It can be from the business sector. So we’ve seen BLSA put out a statement saying that they are very much opposed to the idea of a radical left coalition government. And I know that that would have repercussions on cooperation between big business and the government.
It can come from civil society, from organizations like the IRR and others that put out arguments in the public sphere to explain why we have these two choices and which of the two is preferable. And it can also come from the political sphere in the form of, for example, of the DA, which now has to, I think, undergo a very sudden and dramatic mindset shift towards cooperating with the ANC rather than opposing it.
as firmly and as admirably as it has done over the past 30 years. I think the political terrain has really shifted very suddenly now, and it is easy to get caught flat-footed by that change. MK is not going to be caught flat-footed. I think they are pressing the advantage. They are maintaining a state of uncertainty and flux and keeping up the pressure to get maximum concessions and benefits out of this state. And that needs to be now countered by an equally firm opposition.
Alec Hogg (14:17.273)
Would that lead to the devolution of more power from the centre? When you talk about MK’s pressure that it’s putting up there and presumably cheered on by those in the Western Cape who would like to see independence for that part of the world.
John Endres (14:32.43)
Yes. So that is a double -edged sword. Devolution is something that we at the IRR have traditionally been in favor of. We think that often decentralized solutions work better than centralized solutions, because in centralized solutions, you put all your eggs in one basket, and if the basket is broken, then your eggs will also be broken. But if you have multiple baskets, then at least some eggs will be saved, to stretch the metaphor a little bit.
But yes, so we’ve had the weakening state over a period of decade and a half now, at least. And one of the natural consequences of that is involuntary decentralization, which means that because the state is unable to perform its functions in the way that it is designed to, local authorities, provincial authorities, civil society organizations are stepping into those gaps. And that is positive when those actors are positive actors.
But when those actors are malevolent or negative actors, the damage can be quite extensive. And that is the risk that we’re facing right now, is that mafia-type organizations like the construction mafia, the transport mafia, the anti-foreigner mafia, use the vacuum that has been created by the weak state and fill that with their own people, their own resources, their own influence to bend events towards their own will. And if the state is not strengthened, then it will not be able to resist this.
Alec Hogg (16:04.793)
Elephant in the Room, the influence of the Kremlin. You do see the regalia of the MK with pictures on them of Putin and Zuma. They are well-funded, and we know that the Russians don’t really mind interfering in the elections of other countries. We’ve seen what happened in the United States. And then the likely partner of the MK, the EFF,
Julius Malema telling a packed stadium that Putin is us and we are Putin. So clearly there is another actor that is playing out here. Would that be something that would incline the ANC towards an alliance with the MK stroke EFF grouping or away from it, given its history in bricks and so on? Just to make it a little more complex, John.
John Endres (17:01.038)
As if it was not complex enough. I do think that the ANC is caught in a bit of a bind at the moment because it has been supportive of Russia and Vladimir Putin. And if these strong rumors of Russian support for MK are true, and I don’t have evidence for that, but circumstantial evidence seems to point in that direction, then Russia would have been both supporting and opposing the ANC at the same time.
And so what should the ANC’s response to that be? Should it now continue to support Vladimir Putin while he is trying to undermine the ANC? Or should it turn away from Russia and maybe seek other allies and other partners? What it chooses to do, I think, is going to be determined by the outcome of those deliberations in the NEC. So if it turns towards the MK and EFF, then there will be an alignment. And I think…
a way will be found to align with Russia once again. If it turns towards the DA and the MPC, then that conflict I think is going to lead to probably a cooling of the relationship between South Africa and Russia, and maybe also a change in stance on Russia. But at this stage, this is a dilemma for the ANC and one that is unresolved, I would say.
Alec Hogg (18:23.673)
And ordinary South Africans are sitting on the sidelines saying, should I pack my bags? Clearly not. Wait first. But if it does have the alignment that you have proposed, R .W. Johnson says it’s not going to last long. He reckons it’s going to be such a disaster that it won’t take very long for all of that to unfold. And then we would reboot as a country. What is your thinking?
John Endres (18:50.798)
Yeah, so I think waiting to see the outcome is a good idea because the two alternative futures towards which we are hurtling now, I think are starkly different. And I think that the ANCDA slash MPC future is one that can be quite positive for South Africa. One of these statistics that we’ve been highlighting in our briefings is the rate of fixed capital investment in South Africa.
which is very low, it’s about 15 % of GDP, where the global average is 27%. This is a reflection of lacking trust in South Africa’s institutions, business environment, protection of property rights. If that could be reversed and that trust could be reestablished, there is the opportunity for South Africa to attract investment. And as a result of that, lift economic growth levels back to two to 3 % in the short term and maybe to 5 % in the medium term.
John Endres (19:49.966)
leading to much better outcomes for the country. And that is a reason to be optimistic about South Africa. If we go down the other path, investment is not going to come in when it sees an EFF, MK, ANC hookup. And even if that breaks up, I think that is going to be such a disruptive event that investors will still be shy from coming to South Africa to invest their funds here. That is true for the short and medium term.
The long term then really depends on how it plays out. Do these allies ANC, EFF, MK, should it come to that alliance, eat each other up and discredit themselves forever? If that happens and a reorientation towards more pro-growth, investor-friendly policies occurs, then once again, there’s an upside for South Africa.
Alec Hogg (20:45.881)
It’s an extraordinary time in our history. John Endres is the chief executive of the Institute for Race Relations, and I’m Alec Hogg from BizNews.com.
Read also:
SA enters phase of “necessary uncertainty”…
Dr Corne’ Mulder outlines options for lawmakers during SA’s critical next two weeks
MK hurts ANC’s chances of national majority…
>>> Read full article>>>
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source : BizNews – https://www.biznews.com/interviews/2024/06/04/endres-anc-pivotal-moment-sas-future