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March 16, 2024 by Mishal Ali
The Ethereum network recently underwent a major Dencun upgrade. While this promises exciting developments, it also brings potential risks that merit a closer look. According to data from CryptoQuant, one of Dencun’s big impacts is reducing Ethereum’s total token supply. We’re seeing this driven by the incredible amount of network activity and transaction fees getting burned.
The supply has actually resumed declining after holding steady for a while, recently hitting a new low of just over 120 million ETH in circulation – the lowest supply since way back in August 2022. The average daily burn rate is now a whopping 5,000 ETH, marking the fastest pace of supply contraction since last May.
On the other hand, participation is ramping up like never before. Staking numbers have soared to over 31 million ETH staked, accounting for over a quarter of the total supply at 26%. That’s a ton of coincides, voting with their ETH and showing faith in Ethereum’s future following Dencun.
Speaking of participation, the network itself is absolutely on fire right now, with all-time highs for daily transactions and value transferred. This frenzy of activity speaks volumes about Ethereum’s growing adoption and use cases. It’s also the engine burning all those fees and constricting the token supply.
Ethereum Price Movement Post-Dencun
Even with all these positive fundamentals, there are some concerning valuation signals flashing. Metrics like the sky-high MVRV ratio point to ETH potentially being overvalued versus its realized value at the moment. So, while the upgrade is bullish, some cautious optimism may be warranted before getting carried away.
Interestingly, Ethereum’s price actually dipped by around 7% immediately after Dencun, sliding from over $4,000 to under $3,700 per ETH. As of today, March 16th, it’s trading at roughly $3,725, with 24-hour volumes down a chunky 35% from recent peaks.
According to Changelly, technical analysis is giving mixed signals. Fear and greed indices are leaning bullish overall, but some near-term projections suggest ETH could potentially dip another 1.8% by tomorrow before bouncing back.
All in all, while Dencun solidifies Ethereum’s strong fundamentals for the long run, the market’s reaction so far has been pretty lukewarm. Only time will tell if this lights a fire under the next major bull run or if traders want to see more proof before piling in again.
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