EUR/USD oscillates in a narrow range and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces.
The Fed’s projected three rate cuts in 2024 undermine the USD and lend support to the pair.
Rising bets for a June ECB rate cut keep the Euro bulls on the defensive and act as a headwind.
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s goodish rebound from the 1.0800 mark, or a three-week low and oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.0840 region, nearly unchanged for the day and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics.
Despite the optimistic outlook about the US economic growth, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, fails to attract buyers in the wake of mixed signals over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut path. The US central bank said last week that it remains on track to cut interest rates by 75 bps this year. That said, several Fed officials expressed concern about sticky inflation and stronger-than-expected US macro data. This, in turn, holds back traders from placing fresh USD directional bets and leads to the EUR/USD pair’s subdued/range-bound price action.
The shared currency, on the other hand, is undermined by bets for a June rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). In fact, Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta said on Monday that the ECB is moving towards an interest rate cut as inflation is falling rapidly and approaching the 2% target. Separately, ECB chief economist Philip Lane noted that the central bank can consider reversing interest rates once it becomes more confident that wage growth is slowing and inflation is heading back to the 2% target as projected. This further contributes to capping the upside for the EUR/USD pair.
Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and the Richmond Manufacturing Index later during the North American session. This, along with the US bond yield and the broader risk sentiment, will drive demand for the safe-haven buck and provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair. The market focus, however, will remain glued to the release of the US Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Friday.
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