Fed doves, Fed hawks: a look at how U.S. central bankers fly

(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.

The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Fed officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, divisions are more evident, and the choices – to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause – more varied.

All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

The following graphic offers a stab at how officials stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Austan John Jerome Chistopher

Goolsbee, Williams, Powell, Fed Waller,

Chicago Fed New York Chair, Governor,

President, Fed permanent permanent

2023 voter: President, voter: “It is voter: “If

“Hopefully permanent certainly inflation

we’re going to voter: “To possible that does not

continue to me, the we would continue to

see debate is raise the show

improvement on really (federal) progress

the inflation about: Do funds rate and there

front.” Aug 1, we need to again at the are no

2023 do another September suggestions

rate meeting if of a

increase? the data significant

Or not?” warranted, slowdown in

Aug 2, and I would economic

2023 also say it’s activity,

possible that then a

we would second

choose to 25-basis-po

hold steady int hike

at that should come

meeting.” sooner

July 26, 2023 rather than

later”

after the

July rate

hike. July

13, 2023

Patrick Lisa Cook, Philip Michelle

Harker, Governor, Jefferson, Bowman,

Philadelphia permanent Governor and Governor,

Fed President, voter: Vice Chair permanent

2023 voter: “If Designate, voter: “I

“Absent any confirmed, permanent expect that

alarming new I will voter: “The additional

data between stay economy faces increases

now and focused on multiple will likely

mid-September, inflation challenges, be needed

I believe we until our including to lower

may be at the job is inflation, inflation

point where we done.” banking-secto to the

can be patient June 21, r stress, and (Federal

and hold rates 2023 geopolitical Open Market

steady.” Aug instability. Committee’s

8, 2023 The Federal ) goal.”

Reserve must Aug. 7,

remain 2023

attentive to

them all.”

June 21, 2023

Raphael Susan Michael Barr, Loretta

Bostic, Collins, Vice Chair of Mester,

Atlanta Fed Boston Fed Supervision, Cleveland

President, President, permanent Fed

2024 voter: 2025 voter: “I’ll President,

“I’d like if voter: “We just say for 2024 voter:

at all may be at, myself, I “My view is

possible to or near, think we’re that the

make sure we the point close.” July funds rate

don’t do too where 10, 2023 will need

much, and do monetary to move up

more than is policy can somewhat

necessary to pause further

get us to that raising from its

2% target..” interest current

Aug 1, 2023 rates.” level and

May 25, then hold

2023 there for a

while.”

July 10,

2023

Mary Daly, San Neel

Francisco Fed Kashkari,

President, Minneapolis

2024 voter: Fed

“Whether we President,

raise another 2023 voter:

time, or hold “We’re making

rates steady good

for a longer progress, and

period — we’re staying

those things on it. If we

are yet to be need to hike-

determined.” raise rates

Aug. 10, 2023. further from

here, we will

do so.” July

30, 2023

Lorie Logan,

Dallas Fed

President,

2023 voter:

“The

continuing

outlook for

above-target

inflation and

stronger-than

-expected

labor market

calls for

more-restrict

ive monetary

policy.” July

6, 2023

Thomas

Barkin,

Richmond Fed

President,

2024 voter:

“We have time

before the

next meeting

… to figure

out whether

the various

forecasts of

where the

economy is

going come

true.” Aug 8,

2023

Note: Fed policymakers have been driving up borrowing costs since March 2022 to bring down high inflation, and in July they increased the target policy rate range to 5.25%-5.5%. Most policymakers as of June expected at least one more rate hike by year’s end. Longtime banker Jeff Schmid starts as Kansas City Fed president Aug. 21, and will be a voter in 2025. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a vocal policy hawk, left the Fed in July for a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.

(Reporting Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Michael S. Derby and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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