FFM podcast ep20: A media-fuelled frenzy; Rose-tinted glasses; Bottom drawers; A red aqua

Dive into the world of finance with our latest podcast episode. Join host Stuart Lowman from BizNews as he explores week 20 insights in the Fantasy Fund Manager podcast. Special guests include Garreth Montana from Corion Capital and Carmen Nel, Head of Multi-Asset at Terebinth Capital. Discover market trends, investment opportunities, and challenging landscape tips. Gain valuable insights on how to approach SA Inc., the impact of media on sentiment, and much more. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just curious about finance, this episode offers valuable perspectives to elevate your financial understanding. Remember, each dawn of Monday is your chance to pitch your winning stocks. With enticing prizes awaiting, the game is on. Rally your comrades and head to www.fantasyfundmanager.co.za to register—big thanks to our platinum sponsors, Sharenet, Terebinth Capital, ClucasGray Asset Management, and MoneyBetter. And mark your calendars: Subscribe now to our podcast to keep up with every episode.

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Welcome back to another exciting episode of the Fantasy Fund Manager podcast. I’m Stuart Lowman from BizNews, and today, we have the pleasure of hosting Garreth Montana from Corion Capital and Carmen Nel, Head of Multi-Asset at Terebinth Capital. Let’s dive into some insights for week 20. The most-purchased stock this week was Shoprite, perhaps inspired by the Springbok’s recent World Cup performance in aqua. Currently, the stock is down 0.85%. On the flip side, the most sold stock was BHP, surprisingly up 2.75%. Garreth, we had a good rugby game on Sunday. We were hoping for a market bounce in week 20. (All prices are correct at the time of podcast recording.)

Garreth: Yes, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We had some not-so-great rugby news with Malcolm Marx, and the market bounce we hoped for hasn’t materialized yet. However, the World Cup still has a long way to go, so there’s still time.

Stuart Lowman: Carmen, before we delve into the market, can you share a day in the life of a Head of Multi-Asset? It’s a role that not everyone fully understands.

Carmen Nel: Certainly, Stuart. I joined Terebinth on 1 July, so I’m still finding my rhythm as a new member. Typically, my day starts with getting the kids off to school, then diving into market analysis, monitoring the Rand, bonds, and equities. The day is filled with tasks like client presentations, team meetings, and in-depth market discussions. The dynamic nature of markets keeps us busy every day.

Stuart Lowman: We often discuss the state of South Africa, focusing on SA Inc. Interestingly, only 23% of players have seen a return equal to or greater than zero since the start of Fantasy Fund Manager. This reflects the challenging market conditions. Garreth, could you shed some light on this?

Garreth Montano: Absolutely, Stuart. Investing in the stock market involves both skill and market conditions. Even though skill can help you outperform, the market is a significant return driver. Even if you outperform in complex markets, achieving substantial gains is challenging. We’re witnessing a wide dispersion of returns, with some shares down 30-50%. In such a dynamic environment, positive returns are hard to come by.

Stuart Lowman: Carmen, with internal factors like load shedding and external factors like rising inflation due to high oil prices, how are you approaching SA Inc.?

Carmen Nel: From a multi-asset perspective, we can invest in various asset classes beyond equities. While SA Inc. faces risks, such as volatile equities, there’s potential value. South African banks, for instance, are well-regulated with strong ROEs despite short-term concerns like non-performing loans. There’s room for optimism, mainly if rate cuts occur in the next 12 months, benefiting interest rate-sensitive sectors.

Stuart Lowman: Garreth, given the current conditions, is there any particular sector that stands out to you?

Garreth Montano: I’ve been watching the diversified miners, as I mentioned a few podcasts ago. While there’s still risk in the platinum sector, there’s also a lot of negativity from China’s economic challenges. South Africa’s resource sectors could benefit in the long term, which makes diversified miners an interesting sector to watch. Additionally, the market reflects much of the negativity we’re currently experiencing.

Stuart Lowman: Carmen, any thoughts regarding the current environment and investment opportunities?

Carmen Nel: I’ve taken a buy-and-hold approach, focusing on quality stocks that offer stability in the face of short-term market volatility. Quality banks and other resilient companies have shown promise. It’s crucial to consider both the short-term and long-term potential of investments.

Stuart Lowman: Speaking of media, Garreth, it’s often said that bad news sells more than good news. How do you view the impact of media on investor sentiment?

GarrethMontano: You’re right, Stuart. Bad news tends to grab more attention, and media companies know this. However, it’s important to remember that Mr. and Mrs. Stock Market are savvy. They’ve already factored in a lot of what we’re feeling. Our local equity and bond prices reflect much of the negativity we’re seeing. It’s during these challenging times that opportunities often arise.

Stuart Lowman: Carmen, as an experienced Fantasy Fund Manager player, do you have any tips for our listeners who want to excel in the game?

Carmen Nel: Given the short-term nature of the competition, if you have limited time for weekly analysis, consider a buy-and-hold strategy focused on quality. Look for companies with strong brand recognition, high return on equity, and a transparent business model. These attributes can provide stability in volatile markets.

Garreth, any final insights to share?

Garreth Montano: When it comes to investing, looking at the bigger picture is essential. While South Africa faces challenges, so do many other economies. Don’t forget that it’s often a relative game, and opportunities can arise when it feels the most challenging.

Stuart Lowman: Thank you both for your valuable insights. Thanks to Carmen Nel, Head of Multi-Asset at Terebinth Capital, and Garreth Montana from Corion Capital. We’d also like to thank our sponsors: ClucasGray Asset Management, Sharenet, MoneyBetter, and Terebinth Capital. Don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast for updates, and you can follow us on X, @Fantasy_Fund, for more discussion and comments. Until next time.

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