Foreign investors’ NGX trade up 437% in four months

Foreign investors’ equities trading rose 437 per cent to N334.01 billion in the first four months of 2024, from N62.18billion obtained in the corresponding period of 2023.

Nigeria’s stock investors exchanged equities valued at N1.894 trillion in January to April 30, 2024, as against N721.44 billion recorded in the same period of 2023, according to April trading data on domestic and foreign portfolio participation in equity trading obtained from the Nigeria Exchange Limited (NGX).

Foreigners accounted for 17.63 per cent (N334.01billion) of the total equities’ transactions within the period while domestic investors accounted for 82.37 per cent (N1.560 trillion).

Foreigners in Nigeria’s equities market had, in four months to April 2023, traded stocks worth only N62.18 billion or 8.62per cent while domestic investor traded N659.26 billion or 91.38 per cent in four months to April 2023.

Foreign investors’ trade in stocks peaked in April, representing 34.90 per cent of the total value of stocks traded. The record value of stocks traded by foreign investors in April was N120.83 billion, while domestic investors accounted for equities deal worth N225.40billion or 65.10 per cent.

Nigeria’s stock market’s return in 2024 stood positive at 33.64 per cent in the trading week to June 14 following increased buy activities in oil & gas, banking and insurance stocks.

“We expect a continued interest in fundamentally sound stocks,” said analysts at Comercio Partners in their June 14 note.

Despite foreigners’ interest in Nigerian stocks in the four months to April 2024, the market remains under pressure as investors pursue safety in the fixed income (FI) space amid attractive yield.

“The last 12 months, and particularly the past five months, have seen a transformation in Naira fixed-income yields. Not only are T-bill yields realised at the CBN’s auctions high, they are consistently high.

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“The average yield of 91-day T-bills at auction so far this year has been 15 percent, annualised, as opposed to an average of 5.2percent in 2023. The average yield for 1-year T-bill has been 23.3percent against an average of 13.3percent in 2023,” said Coronation research analysts in their June 10 note.

In March 2024, foreign investors traded stocks worth N94.26 billion or 17.50 per cent, while domestic investors accounted for N444.28 billion or 82.50 per cent.

In February, foreign stock investors traded equities worth N65.81 billion or 18.39 per cent of the total value of trade while domestic investors traded N292.07billion worth of stocks or 81.61percent.

In January, it was N53.11 billion or 8.15 per cent by foreigners and N598.41 billion or 91.85 per cent by domestic investors.

In four months to April 30, ten stockbroking firms accounted for equities deals worth N1.024trillion or 54.11 per cent of the total value of stocks traded on the NGX in same period.

According to Broker Performance Report by the NGX, 10 stockbroking firms that traded this value of equities in the review four months period are: CardinalStone Securities Limited, Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers Limited, United Capital Securities Limited, Apt Securities and Funds, EFG Hermes Nigeria Limited, Meristem Stockbrokers Limited, Cordros Securities Limited, Chapel Hill Denham Securities Limited, Apel Asset Limited, and Morgan Capital Securities Limited.

Despite attractive returns from the fixed income market, participants continue to take positions in fundamentally sound stock given their low pricings.

“We expect activities in the fixed income market to continue to stand as a strong demotivator toward equities investments,” according to Lagos-based United Capital in their June 19 note.

They further said that a strong hope for the market is the expected high base effect for inflation in June 2024.

“Given the indications that equities market is considerably oversold, induced by the +750 basis points (bps) MPR hike year-to-date, we expect bargain-hunting in the equities market to remain unabated, particularly around fundamentally sound stocks (currently trading around their oversold region), and stocks with pending corporate actions,” United Capital analysts said.

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Month-on-month (MoM), the peak of stocks’ value traded over the four-month review period was in January (N651.52 billion). It was followed by March (N538.54 billion), February (N357.88 billion), and April (N346.23 billion).

Foreign inflows in the four months stood at N135.95 billion, while foreign outflows were estimated at N198.06billion.

Domestic retail investors traded N771.66billion stocks while domestic institutional investors accounted for N788.50 billion in the review four-month period.

Meristem research analysts, in their market outlook for the week commencing June 19, said they anticipate a mixed performance in the equities market, driven by continued positive momentum and cautious trading.

“Also, the sticky movement around the fixed-income yields might cause the fixed-income market to be less attractive, potentially driving inflows of funds into the equities market. Moreover, we anticipate that favourable entry points will sustain bargain-hunting activities in the equities market this week,” the analysts said.

“Conversely, we anticipate some level of profit-taking activities this week, as investors remain cautious about holding stocks for the long term. Ultimately, we expect the bulls to outweigh the bears, bringing the All-Share Index to close in the positive zone this week,” they added.

CardinalStone Securities Limited led the league of top 10 brokers by value of trade after trading stocks worth N197.535billion or 10.43 percent of the total value of equities traded same period.

Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers Limited followed after accounting for equities deals worth N185.330billion or 9.79 per cent. United Capital Securities Limited came third on the list, accounting for equities trade worth N126.715billion or 6.69 per cent.

Other are: Apt Securities and Funds (N110.305billion or 5.82 per cent), EFG Hermes Nigeria Limited (N96.783 billion or 5.11 per cent), Meristem Stockbrokers Limited (N73.650 billion or 3.89 per cent), and Cordros Securities Limited (N73.143 billion or 3.86 per cent).

Also, other top 10 stockbrokers by value of stocks traded in the four-month period under review are Chapel Hill Denham Securities Limited (N57.149 billion or 3.02 per cent; Apel Asset Limited (N53.635 billion or 2.83per cent), and Morgan Capital Securities Limited (N50.605 billion or 2.67per cent).

The NGX recently disclosed the launch of a new Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) platform, an innovative idea that allows users to access real-time stock market information and direct connection with stockbrokers by dialling *5474# on their mobile phone.

“We believe this idea will help boost financial inclusion and participation in the Nigerian capital market,” according to Meristem research analysts.

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