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It is a relatively busy Tuesday on the economic calendar. German producer price index numbers drew interest early in the European session.
With inflation a focal point and cracks emerging in the German economy, there was greater market interest in the PPI numbers.
The German Producer Price Index declined by 1.4% in May versus a 0.3% increase in April. Economists forecast a 0.7% decline. Year-over-year, the Producer Price Index increased by 1.0%.
According to Destatis,
Increases in prices of capital goods (+6.5%) and non-durable goods (+10.1%) contributed to the year-over-year increase.
Significantly, the price development of machinery (+8.2%), vehicles and their parts (+5.6%), and food prices (+11.9%) contributed.
Prices of durable consumer goods increased by 7.9%.
However, intermediate goods and energy prices declined by 2.3% and 3.3%, respectively, compared with May 2022.
After the hawkish ECB press conference, the latest figures reflected persistent food price pressures while suggesting weaker demand, with the marked monthly fall in the Index.
Earlier today, the PBoC disappointed the markets. In line with expectations, the PBoC cut the 5-year LPR from 4.3% to 4.2% and the 1-year LPR from 3.65% to 3.55%.
Investors hoped for larger-than-forecast cuts to Loan Prime Rates and a stimulus package from Beijing. The disappointment weighed on riskier assets.
EUR/USD Reaction to German Producer Price Index Report
Ahead of the German Producer Price Index Report, the EUR/USD rose to a pre-stat high of $1.09264 before falling to an early low of $1.09106.
However, in response to the PPI numbers, the EUR/USD rose to a post-stat high of $1.09272 before falling to a low of $1.09207.
This morning, the EUR/USD was up 0.04% to $1.09254.
200623 EURUSD Hourly Chart
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With inflation in focus, investors should track ECB commentary throughout the day. ECB Executive Board members Andrea Enria, Elizabeth McCaul, and Luis de Guindos are on the calendar to speak today. Hawkish September policy chatter would move the dial.
Looking ahead to the US session, it is a quiet day on the US economic calendar. US housing starts and building permits will draw interest. However, we expect the numbers to have a limited impact on the EUR/USD, with Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill likely to be the key driver.
The markets are betting on interest rate hikes in July and September. Hawkish chatter would support a EUR/USD pullback.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point July rate hike stood at 74.4%, up from 59.9% one week earlier. The chances of the Fed lifting the Fed Funds Rate to 5.75% in September declined from 13.1% to 11.9% over one week.
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