Gold price edges lower in Tuesday’s Asian session.
The stronger US economic data and the Fed’s hawkish stance continue to underpin the yellow metal.
Investors will focus on the speech from Fed’s Cook and Bowman on Tuesday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory on Tuesday despite the weaker Greenback. The stronger-than-expected US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released last week triggered Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to push out the timing of the first interest rate cut this year, which continues to cap the gold’s upside. However, the safe-haven flows on the back of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine might boost the yellow metal in the near term.
Investors will take more cues from the Fed members’ speeches on Tuesday, with Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman scheduled to speak. The crucial US economic data to be closely watched this week will be the final reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) on Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for May, which is due on Friday. Any evidence of a trend of easing inflation could prompt the expectation of Fed rate cuts later in 2024. This, in turn, might drag the Greenback lower and create a tailwind for USD-denominated Gold.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains sensitive to Fed rate-cut path
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Monday that she does not believe the Fed should cut rates before the central bank is confident that inflation is headed towards 2%. Daly added that the labour market, albeit strong, might face rising unemployment if inflation remains persistent.
The final reading of the US headline and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is expected to show an increase of 2.6% YoY in May.
Traders are now pricing in a 66% odds of a Fed rate cut in September, up from 59.5% at the end of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the most intense phase of the assault against Hamas in Gaza is close to ending while stressing the broader war against Hamas wages on, per CNN.
Russia has condemned the US for a “barbaric” strike in Crimea, which used US-provided missiles, killing at least four people, including children, and injuring 151 others. On Monday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned US Ambassador Lynne Tracy and accused the US of launching a “proxy war,” warning that retaliation would “definitely follow,” per local news agency Aljazeera.
Technical Analysis: Gold price could face downward pressure in the shorter term
The gold price trades on a softer note on the day. The precious metal has formed a descending trend channel since May 10 on the daily timeframe. The yellow metal keeps the bullish vibe above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nonetheless, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 50-midline, indicating a neutral level between bullish and bearish positions.
The upper boundary of the descending trend channel at $2,350 will be the first stop for XAU/USD. A break above this level will pave the way to $2,387, a high of June 7. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at the all-time high of $2,450.
On the other hand, a low of June 21 at $2,316 acts as an initial support level for the yellow metal. Any follow-through selling will see a drop to $2,285, a low of June 7. The key contention level to watch is the $2,255-$2,260 zone, portraying the 100-day EMA and the lower limit of the descending trend channel.
US Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
CAD
AUD
JPY
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.03%
-0.09%
-0.09%
-0.07%
-0.16%
-0.01%
-0.15%
EUR
0.03%
-0.07%
-0.06%
-0.02%
-0.11%
0.01%
-0.10%
GBP
0.09%
0.05%
-0.01%
0.03%
-0.06%
0.07%
-0.05%
CAD
0.09%
0.06%
0.01%
0.05%
-0.06%
0.07%
-0.04%
AUD
0.07%
0.03%
-0.03%
-0.03%
-0.09%
0.04%
-0.06%
JPY
0.17%
0.14%
0.08%
0.07%
0.08%
0.15%
0.02%
NZD
0.03%
-0.01%
-0.06%
-0.07%
-0.04%
-0.12%
-0.12%
CHF
0.15%
0.11%
0.06%
0.05%
0.08%
0.00%
0.13%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
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