Gold price sits near weekly top amid Middle East worries, looks to US GDP for fresh impetus

Gold price attracts some buyers for the second straight day amid geopolitical concerns. 
Bulls seem rather unaffected by rising US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar.
Investors look to the Advance US Q3 GDP growth figures for some meaningful impetus. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains some positive traction for the second successive day on Thursday and trades around the $1,985 region, up nearly 0.30% during the Asian session. The precious metal remains well within the striking distance of a five-month top touched last Friday and continues to benefit from the risk of a further escalation of the Israel–Gaza conflict. The uptick seem unaffected by elevated US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar (USD), bolstered by hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), which tends to undermine the non-yielding yellow metal. 

Investors now look forward to key macro data from the United States for cues on the Fed’s future rate-hike path, which will play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory for the Gold price. Thursday’s US economic docket highlights the release of the Advance Q3 GDP print, Durable Goods Orders, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, followed by Pending Home Sales data. This, along with Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s scheduled speech and the US bond yields, should influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the XAU/USD. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains supported by the Israel-Hamas war, despite stronger US bond yields and US Dollar

Geopolitical concerns continue to support the Gold price, despite rising US Treasury bond yields and some follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying interest. 
Israel’s military intensified its bombing on Hamas targets in Gaza and is prepared for a ground invasion, increasing the risk of a spillover to the wider Middle East region.
A slew of international powers have been making diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the raging conflict between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Hawkish Federal Reserve expectations allow the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield to hold steady near a 16-year top, around the 5% threshold breached earlier this week. 
The XAU/USD bulls, meanwhile, seem rather unaffected by the recent strong US Dollar recovery move from a one-month low touched on Tuesday. 
The preliminary estimate of the US GDP print is expected to show that the economy expanded by 4.2% annualized pace during the third quarter as compared to a 2.1% growth in Q2.
The market attention will then shift to the US PCE Price Index, which will provide some meaningful impetus ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. 

Technical Analysis: Gold price might continue to confront resistance ahead of $2,000 psychological mark

From a technical perspective, the emergence of fresh buying near the $1,953-1,952 resistance breakpoint, turned support, and the subsequent move up favours bullish traders. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is on the verge of breaking into overbought territory. This, in turn, suggests that the Gold price might continue to confront stiff barrier near the $2,000 psychological mark. A sustained strength beyond, however, has the potential to lift the XAU/USD further towards the next relevant hurdle near the $2,022 area.

On th flip side, the Asian session low, around the $1,980 level, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $1,971-1,970 region. Some follow-through selling might expose the weekly trough, around the $1,953-1,952 zone touched on Tuesday. The latter represents a strong horizontal resistance breakpoint and should act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below will make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall back towards challenging the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged near the $1,932-1,931 region.

US Dollar price in the last 7 days

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies in the last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

 
USD
EUR
GBP
CAD
AUD
JPY
NZD
CHF

USD
 
-0.07%
0.51%
0.71%
0.87%
0.44%
1.29%
-0.08%

EUR
0.07%
 
0.59%
0.78%
0.93%
0.51%
1.35%
-0.01%

GBP
-0.52%
-0.59%
 
0.20%
0.37%
-0.07%
0.77%
-0.60%

CAD
-0.72%
-0.78%
-0.19%
 
0.14%
-0.26%
0.58%
-0.80%

AUD
-0.86%
-0.92%
-0.34%
-0.15%
 
-0.42%
0.43%
-0.95%

JPY
-0.43%
-0.53%
0.05%
0.26%
0.44%
 
0.85%
-0.54%

NZD
-1.30%
-1.39%
-0.81%
-0.59%
-0.42%
-0.83%
 
-1.38%

CHF
0.08%
0.01%
0.59%
0.80%
0.95%
0.52%
1.37%
 

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

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