Goldman Sachs CEO sees lower US recession risk, predicts growth

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Published Nov 13, 2023 12:07AM ET

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:).’s CEO, David Solomon, offered an optimistic outlook on the US economy, noting a significant reduction in recession risk compared to last year. In a recent interview with the Hong Kong Economic Journal, Solomon highlighted that Goldman Sachs economists now estimate the risk of a US recession at 15%, a sharp decrease from a Bloomberg consensus of 60%. This revision made in September was based on factors such as easing inflation and a resilient labor market.

Just last week, during a financial summit in Hong Kong, Solomon shared his expectations for an increase in capital markets activities starting next year. He acknowledged the potential challenges posed by substantial interest rate changes and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Despite these concerns, he suggested that the US economy might experience a soft landing due to persistent inflation and possible rate hikes by the Federal Reserve next year amidst high prices and borrowing costs.

Looking ahead, Solomon and his team at Goldman Sachs project the US economy to expand at a rate of 2.1% in 2024, marking its fastest growth in nearly two years. They attribute this anticipated growth to a boost in consumer spending, which will face critical tests in the upcoming months. According to Solomon’s forecast, this growth rate would surpass that of other major developed markets, demonstrating the US economy’s resilience.

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