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Macro guru and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is laying out three possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s (BTC) next run.
In a new interview on the Unchained Crypto YouTube channel, the ex-Goldman Sachs executive says that the most likely scenario for Bitcoin is a traditional cycle where the crypto king rallies somewhere between $100,000 and $200,000.
“I am obviously very bullish… I’ve got three outcomes in my head that I’m juggling with. The 60% probability is we have kind of a very traditional cycle and that pushes Bitcoin up to the $100,000 to $200,000 range and all the other assets accordingly where they are on the risk curve.”
Pal goes on to say the second scenario – which he believes has a 20% chance of unfolding – would see a massive influx of money into the digital assets industry, triggering a bigger-than-expected bull run.
“There’s a 20% chance this early start is signifying something much bigger, which is larger adoption and more Capital into the space, which leads to larger price rises than people expect.
People are quite scarred because the last cycle seemed shorter than most people expected, everyone thought there was another final leg higher and that never really happened… But maybe this time the shock is for excess returns beyond expectations.”
In the third scenario, Pal says that the asset class could see a front-loaded cycle that is even shorter than the last.
“The other side that I grapple with as well is [that] the whole cycle’s front-loaded and in fact, it’s shorter, but more violent in 2024. So those are the three scenarios that I’m juggling in my head.”
Bitcoin is trading for $44,279 at time of writing, a 2.73% increase during the last 24 hours.
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