The headline S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remains in negative growth territory, at 49.7 for February (up from 48.8 in January), but only just below the 50.0 no-change mark and its highest level since August 2023.
Although only marginal, the rate of new business growth was the fastest since May 2023 and business optimism improved for the third time in the past four months to reach its highest level since January 2022.
However, the rate of job shedding was the fastest since November 2020.
All three main categories of construction activity saw a near-stabilisation of business activity in February. House-building saw the biggest turnaround since January, with its index at 49.8, up from 44.2 and its highest level since November 2022. Survey respondents suggested that improving market conditions had gradually contributed to a stabilisation of residential construction work. In contrast, the commercial segment saw a more subdued performance than in January, with construction companies typically citing hesitancy among clients and constrained budget setting.
Total new work increased marginally in February, ending a six-month period of decline. This appeared to reflect a turnaround in tender opportunities and greater client confidence, especially in house-building.
Despite positive trends for order books and sales pipelines, staffing numbers decreased for the second month running and, although only moderate, the rate of job shedding was the fastest since November 2020. Comments from panel members suggested that a recent soft patch for work on site, alongside strong wage pressures, had led to cost cutting measures including the non-replacement of voluntary leavers.
More than half of the survey panel (51%) anticipate a rise in business activity over the year ahead, while only 6% forecast a reduction. This indicates the strongest degree of business optimism for just over two years. Construction companies mostly noted new project starts and positive signals for customer demand, partly linked to expected interest rate cuts.
Supply conditions meanwhile improved again slightly in February. There were some reports of a negative impact on deliveries of construction products due to Red Sea shipping disruptions. Demand for construction inputs remained relatively subdued, as signalled by a reduction in purchasing activity for the sixth month running.
Finally, average cost burdens increased for the second consecutive month in February. Higher input prices were often linked to strong wage pressures and rising transportation costs. However, the rate of inflation was only modest and eased from January’s eight-month high, with some firms citing opportunities to negotiate price discounts amid intense supplier competition.
Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the survey, said: “A stabilisation in house building meant that UK construction output was virtually unchanged in February. This was the best performance for the construction sector since August 2023 and the forward-looking survey indicators provide encouragement that business conditions could improve in the coming months.
“Total new orders expanded for the first time since July 2023, which construction companies attributed to rising client confidence and signs of a turnaround in the residential building segment. Meanwhile, the degree of optimism regarding year ahead business activity prospects was the strongest since the start of 2022, in part due to looser financial conditions and expected interest rate cuts.
“However, a protracted downturn in activity has made construction companies cautious about their employment numbers. Staffing levels dropped for the third time in the past four months and the latest round of job shedding was the steepest since November 2020. Purchasing activity also decreased in February, but construction firms continued to cite supply side challenges. Moreover, input costs increased for the second month running as strong wage pressures and renewed materials price inflation placed upward pressure on operating expenses.”
Brian Smith, head of cost management and commercial at Aecom, said :“The return of spring has brought a brighter outlook for the sector after an extended period of difficulty, stemming back 12 months, but it will be forgiven for exercising caution. Firms have done well to weather the storm of high inflation and tightening financial conditions but, while order books are positive for this year, the survey indicates a more competitive tender market ahead.
“Two-stage contracting is becoming the preferred approach among tier one contractors, providing an opportunity for two-way early-stage conversations with developers. But despite a slight uptick, the overall volume of work available will still raise concerns for sub-contractors with shorter pipelines and weaker balance sheets.”
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