As the nation eagerly awaits the official results of the recent five state elections, the anticipation for exit poll outcomes is palpable. While these polls are often seen as a barometer for the final results, history shows that they can be significantly off the mark. Here, we recount five notable instances where exit poll predictions diverged sharply from the actual election outcomes.
2004 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls
In 2004, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP government, buoyed by victories in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, called for early elections with the slogan “India Shining.” Exit polls predicted a comfortable majority for the BJP-led NDA, forecasting between 240 to 275 seats. However, the actual results were surprising: the NDA secured only 187 seats, while the Congress and its allies won 216 seats, contrary to projections.
2014 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls
The 2014 Lok Sabha elections saw exit polls predicting a win for the BJP-led NDA but falling short of a majority. Most exit polls estimated NDA seats between 261 and 289, yet the actual results exceeded expectations. The NDA secured 336 seats, with BJP alone crossing the majority mark, while Congress suffered a historic defeat with only 44 seats.
2017 UP Assembly Elections Exit Polls
Following demonetisation, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections had exit polls predicting a hung assembly, with BJP as the largest party. Contrary to these predictions, the BJP won an overwhelming 325 seats, a stark contrast to the exit polls that suggested a significantly lower tally.
2015 Bihar Assembly Elections Exit Polls
The 2015 Bihar Assembly elections were intensely contested, with high voter turnout. Exit polls indicated a tight race with no clear majority. However, the actual results showed a decisive victory for the RJD-JDU-Congress alliance, with RJD emerging as the largest party. This result was far from the mixed picture painted by exit polls.
2015 Delhi Assembly Elections Exit Polls
In the 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, exit polls predicted a majority for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), but none foresaw the extent of their victory. AAP won 67 out of 70 seats, a landslide not captured by any exit poll, which at best had forecasted their tally to cross 50 seats.
These examples highlight the unpredictability of exit polls. As the country waits for the final results of the current elections, these historical precedents remind us that while exit polls generate discussion, the actual outcomes can be quite different.
2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections Exit Polls
In a major upset, BJP regained control in Chhattisgarh, contrary to exit polls which had predicted an easy win for the Congress in the tribal state. The BJP secured over 50 seats. In Madhya Pradesh, a decisive win for the BJP was forecasted only by India Today-Axis My India, Today’s Chanakya, and India TV-CNX. The BJP ousted the Congress, which had come to power in 2018 after ending the 15-year rule of BJP’s Raman Singh.
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