* . *
  • About
  • Advertise
  • Privacy & Policy
  • Contact
Friday, July 4, 2025
Earth-News
  • Home
  • Business
  • Entertainment
    MAY HER SOUL REST IN PEACE 🙏 Veteran entertainment columnist and talent manager Lolit Solis has passed away. She was 78 years old. https://tinyurl.com/6kumarkx | LatestChika.com – Facebook

    Beloved Entertainment Icon Lolit Solis Passes Away at 78 – A Life Remembered with Love and Respect 🙏

    Neil Young Plays Rare Full-Band ‘Ambulance Blues’ With The Chrome Hearts – Yahoo

    Neil Young Stuns Fans with Rare Full-Band Performance of ‘Ambulance Blues’ Alongside The Chrome Hearts

    BTS Announce Their Big Return and Yes, They Already Have Some Major Plans in the Works – Yahoo

    BTS Announce Their Big Return and Yes, They Already Have Some Major Plans in the Works – Yahoo

    Nantucket Dance Festival opens July 8 – The Inquirer and Mirror

    Nantucket Dance Festival Launches with Thrilling Performances Beginning July 8

    A Secret Society, Ritualistic Killings, and a Century-Old Curse Netflix and YRF Entertainment’s ‘Mandala Murders’ Premieres July 25 – About Netflix

    A Secret Society, Ritualistic Killings, and a Century-Old Curse: Dive into the Chilling World of ‘Mandala Murders’ Premiering July 25

    Susquehanna Raises Penn Entertainment Inc. (PENN) Price Target. – Yahoo Finance

    Susquehanna Raises Price Target for Penn Entertainment Inc. (PENN)

  • General
  • Health
  • News

    Cracking the Code: Why China’s Economic Challenges Aren’t Shaking Markets, Unlike America’s” – Bloomberg

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Trending Tags

    • Trump Inauguration
    • United Stated
    • White House
    • Market Stories
    • Election Results
  • Science
  • Sports
  • Technology
    Environmental cognitive distance, R&D capability distance, and supply chain green technology innovation – Nature

    Bridging Gaps: How Environmental and R&D Differences Drive Green Technology Innovation in Supply Chains

    LG Innotek CEO Moon Hyuksoo: “Our Next-gen Substrate Technology Will Change the Industry Paradigm” – TechPowerUp

    LG Innotek CEO Moon Hyuksoo: “Our Next-Gen Substrate Technology Will Revolutionize the Industry” Revolutionizing the Future: LG Innotek’s CEO Unveils Game-Changing Next-Gen Substrate Technology

    Inspira Technologies Secures Landmark $22.5M Deal: Major Revenue Breakthrough After FDA Clearance – Stock Titan

    Inspira Technologies Secures Landmark $22.5M Deal: Major Revenue Breakthrough After FDA Clearance – Stock Titan

    Meiwu Technology Company Limited and Shenzhen Zhinuo – GlobeNewswire

    Meiwu Technology Company Limited and Shenzhen Zhinuo – GlobeNewswire

    Owls inspire new revolutionary noise reduction technology – KTEN

    Owls inspire new revolutionary noise reduction technology – KTEN

    New center coming to Mizzou will focus on energy research and technology – Columbia Missourian

    Mizzou Launches Innovative New Center Dedicated to Energy Research and Technology

    Trending Tags

    • Nintendo Switch
    • CES 2017
    • Playstation 4 Pro
    • Mark Zuckerberg
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Business
  • Entertainment
    MAY HER SOUL REST IN PEACE 🙏 Veteran entertainment columnist and talent manager Lolit Solis has passed away. She was 78 years old. https://tinyurl.com/6kumarkx | LatestChika.com – Facebook

    Beloved Entertainment Icon Lolit Solis Passes Away at 78 – A Life Remembered with Love and Respect 🙏

    Neil Young Plays Rare Full-Band ‘Ambulance Blues’ With The Chrome Hearts – Yahoo

    Neil Young Stuns Fans with Rare Full-Band Performance of ‘Ambulance Blues’ Alongside The Chrome Hearts

    BTS Announce Their Big Return and Yes, They Already Have Some Major Plans in the Works – Yahoo

    BTS Announce Their Big Return and Yes, They Already Have Some Major Plans in the Works – Yahoo

    Nantucket Dance Festival opens July 8 – The Inquirer and Mirror

    Nantucket Dance Festival Launches with Thrilling Performances Beginning July 8

    A Secret Society, Ritualistic Killings, and a Century-Old Curse Netflix and YRF Entertainment’s ‘Mandala Murders’ Premieres July 25 – About Netflix

    A Secret Society, Ritualistic Killings, and a Century-Old Curse: Dive into the Chilling World of ‘Mandala Murders’ Premiering July 25

    Susquehanna Raises Penn Entertainment Inc. (PENN) Price Target. – Yahoo Finance

    Susquehanna Raises Price Target for Penn Entertainment Inc. (PENN)

  • General
  • Health
  • News

    Cracking the Code: Why China’s Economic Challenges Aren’t Shaking Markets, Unlike America’s” – Bloomberg

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Trending Tags

    • Trump Inauguration
    • United Stated
    • White House
    • Market Stories
    • Election Results
  • Science
  • Sports
  • Technology
    Environmental cognitive distance, R&D capability distance, and supply chain green technology innovation – Nature

    Bridging Gaps: How Environmental and R&D Differences Drive Green Technology Innovation in Supply Chains

    LG Innotek CEO Moon Hyuksoo: “Our Next-gen Substrate Technology Will Change the Industry Paradigm” – TechPowerUp

    LG Innotek CEO Moon Hyuksoo: “Our Next-Gen Substrate Technology Will Revolutionize the Industry” Revolutionizing the Future: LG Innotek’s CEO Unveils Game-Changing Next-Gen Substrate Technology

    Inspira Technologies Secures Landmark $22.5M Deal: Major Revenue Breakthrough After FDA Clearance – Stock Titan

    Inspira Technologies Secures Landmark $22.5M Deal: Major Revenue Breakthrough After FDA Clearance – Stock Titan

    Meiwu Technology Company Limited and Shenzhen Zhinuo – GlobeNewswire

    Meiwu Technology Company Limited and Shenzhen Zhinuo – GlobeNewswire

    Owls inspire new revolutionary noise reduction technology – KTEN

    Owls inspire new revolutionary noise reduction technology – KTEN

    New center coming to Mizzou will focus on energy research and technology – Columbia Missourian

    Mizzou Launches Innovative New Center Dedicated to Energy Research and Technology

    Trending Tags

    • Nintendo Switch
    • CES 2017
    • Playstation 4 Pro
    • Mark Zuckerberg
No Result
View All Result
Earth-News
No Result
View All Result
Home Business

How those strong jobs figures could weaken Biden’s re-election prospects

February 4, 2024
in Business
How those strong jobs figures could weaken Biden’s re-election prospects
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

President Joe Biden issued a statement Friday celebrating the latest blowout jobs report. They showed “another month of strong wage gains and employment gains of over 350,000 in January, continuing the strong growth from last year,” it read.

But below the surface these latest jobs figures may yet prove unhelpful to the president’s re-election campaign. That’s because they pose not one but two possible risks that could prove a headache in the months leading up to November: the risk of more inflation, but also the risk of a recession.

The nonfarm-payrolls numbers in January were double what economists had been expecting. So, too, was the rise in hourly earnings.

These figures are good for workers and for job hunters. But they raise the concerns that Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell’s economic medicine is not yet working the way it’s supposed to, and that the economy is not cooling off.

“Wages came in hot at 0.6%, which is the highest release since March 2022,” writes Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments, in a note to clients. “This reading, coupled with the overall jobs number, effectively takes a March rate cut off the table and should raise fresh concerns about the potential for a reacceleration of inflation.”

Context: Wage spike in January probably not an inflation warning sign. Here’s why.

Also see: March rate cut? Even May now seems remote.

You can see this very clearly in the markets’ reaction to the data. The futures markets, which bets on future interest rates, just slashed bets yet again on early interest-rate cuts. It is also cutting its estimate for rate cuts in the second half of the year. If inflation just won’t lie down, Powell may have to keep rates higher for longer.

A month ago, the futures markets foresaw the Fed cutting interest rates by about 1.25 percentage points between now and its September meeting (the last one before the election).

Its best guess now? Between 0.75 to 1 point. Maybe. 

The market now gives a 10% chance that Powell will be able to cut no more than 0.5 point. Just a day ago, it put that probability at 0%.

Then there’s the interest rate that the Fed doesn’t control (directly, anyway), but which has an even bigger influence on the economy: that of the 10-year Treasury note
BX: TMUBMUSD10Y.
The jobs figures sent the yield on the 10-year — under 3.9% just moments before — leaping above 4%.

The 10-year rate isn’t just a critical benchmark for corporate borrowing and the financial markets; it’s also the key rate used by lenders when they set interest rates on fixed 30-year mortgages. 

So the latest jobs numbers may help keep mortgage rates higher for longer, and push back the day when they start coming down. As every homeowner and buyer in America knows, today’s relatively high mortgage rates have helped freeze much of the real-estate market. Homeowners don’t want to give up those great fixed-rate mortgages they locked in during the pandemic. So many are holding off selling. And scarcity has helped drive up home prices, provoking a crisis for those — especially younger — people trying to buy.

This is not good news.

(Donald Trump, incidentally, fully understands the importance of interest rates to his election campaign. He went on Fox Business on Friday to put pressure on Powell to keep rates higher, complaining that the Fed chief was being “political” and would be cutting rates to assist the re-election of Biden — despite Powell’s having been handpicked by Trump to lead the Fed in 2017.)

President Donald Trump formally nominated Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve chairman, meaning no second term for current Chairwoman Janet Yellen. WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath explains why Mr. Trump decided to choose a new leader for the central bank. Photo: Getty

See: Initial market reaction: too hot

But if the nonfarm-payrolls data are unhelpful, so, too, are a completely different set of numbers also released Friday by the Labor Department: those from a second survey, in which the government polls households instead of employers.

These, remarkably, aren’t showing continuing labor-market strength. They are showing weakness.

Households reported employment numbers that fell last month. This jobs figure fell 31,000 in January even on a seasonally adjusted basis (meaning you take things like Christmas temporary jobs out of the picture). In fact, it’s down by 714,000 jobs since November, and, according to this survey, there are now fewer jobs in America than there were last summer.

More ominously, the household survey shows that full-time employment — a key indicator of a healthy jobs market — peaked in June. Since then it has fallen by 1.6 million (again on a seasonally adjusted basis).

Other metrics that often indicate a weak jobs market, such as the number of potential workers who have given up looking for a job, have also risen.

What’s going on? The two surveys are conducted in parallel each month. But they are totally different. One, the “establishment” survey, talks to employers. The other talks to “households” — workers and would-be workers.

ClearBridge’s Schulze warns that, while both data series are important, the second survey — households — is sometimes a better forward indicator, and, in the past, it has been quicker at catching big changes in the direction of the economy. And, he says, it has been pretty much consistently telling a more ominous story about the jobs market for a year.

“This divergence bears watching,” he writes, “as the household survey historically has been more accurate at inflection points, indicating job growth may be less impressive than it currently appears.”

In other words, if the economy heads into a recession this year after all you might expect to see it show up in the household survey before it shows up in the better-known establishment survey, which produces the nonfarm-payroll numbers.

See: Jobs report is strong, make no mistake. But it was probably inflated by January effect.

Whether the household survey is pointing toward a recession, or even stagnation, is another matter. Most economists think the U.S. will avoid a recession, and that the Fed will successfully engineer a disinflationary soft landing (even if the rate cuts will come later than many had hoped).

The betting still favors a rosy scenario.

But the household survey’s numbers certainly look strange alongside data from the establishment survey that claim we are living in an unprecedented jobs boom.

Read more about the nonfarm-payrolls report:

Soft landing for the economy? How about no landing? The U.S. is still growing fast.

‘Bang! What a way to start the new year’: Economists react to jobs report

U.S. economy showed signs of reaccelerating even before Friday’s jobs report

>>> Read full article>>>
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source : MarketWatch – https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-those-strong-jobs-figures-could-weaken-bidens-re-election-prospects-cf075107?mod=mw_rss_topstories

Tags: businessfiguresStrong
Previous Post

Just in time for the Grammy Awards, here’s a whiskey from country star Chris Stapleton

Next Post

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions up to 196.7K from previous 184K

Environmental cognitive distance, R&D capability distance, and supply chain green technology innovation – Nature

Bridging Gaps: How Environmental and R&D Differences Drive Green Technology Innovation in Supply Chains

July 4, 2025
Penn State Ranks Inside Top Five in EA Sports College Football 26, QB Drew Allar Makes Rating Jump – Yahoo Sports

Penn State Ranks Inside Top Five in EA Sports College Football 26, QB Drew Allar Makes Rating Jump – Yahoo Sports

July 4, 2025
Church adds Mass ‘for care of creation’ to missal, pope to celebrate – usccb

Pope Introduces New Mass Dedicated to Caring for Creation

July 4, 2025
How UMich computer science students are navigating a shifting job market – The Michigan Daily

How UMich computer science students are navigating a shifting job market – The Michigan Daily

July 4, 2025
Genoa Central Junior High Student Places in the 2025 Soybean Science Challenge – TXK Today

Genoa Central Junior High Student Excels in 2025 Soybean Science Challenge

July 4, 2025
Maison & Objet, the Paris-based home and lifestyle trade show, announces leadership change – FashionNetwork India

Maison & Objet Reveals Dynamic New Leadership to Transform the Future of Home and Lifestyle

July 4, 2025
World’s biggest climate fund ramps up investment plans – Reuters

World’s Largest Climate Fund Accelerates Ambitious Investment Plans

July 4, 2025
US economy ‘on wobbly footing’: Why Wall Street strategists are cautious about stock market’s recent records – Yahoo Finance

US Economy on Shaky Ground: Why Wall Street Strategists Are Cautious Despite Stock Market Records

July 4, 2025
MAY HER SOUL REST IN PEACE 🙏 Veteran entertainment columnist and talent manager Lolit Solis has passed away. She was 78 years old. https://tinyurl.com/6kumarkx | LatestChika.com – Facebook

Beloved Entertainment Icon Lolit Solis Passes Away at 78 – A Life Remembered with Love and Respect 🙏

July 4, 2025
Supreme Court declines to hear case challenging parental consent for abortion – CNN

Supreme Court declines to hear case challenging parental consent for abortion – CNN

July 4, 2025

Categories

Archives

July 2025
MTWTFSS
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031 
« Jun    
Earth-News.info

The Earth News is an independent English-language daily published Website from all around the World News

Browse by Category

  • Business (20,132)
  • Ecology (704)
  • Economy (730)
  • Entertainment (21,618)
  • General (15,702)
  • Health (9,768)
  • Lifestyle (734)
  • News (22,149)
  • People (730)
  • Politics (737)
  • Science (15,947)
  • Sports (21,228)
  • Technology (15,714)
  • World (710)

Recent News

Environmental cognitive distance, R&D capability distance, and supply chain green technology innovation – Nature

Bridging Gaps: How Environmental and R&D Differences Drive Green Technology Innovation in Supply Chains

July 4, 2025
Penn State Ranks Inside Top Five in EA Sports College Football 26, QB Drew Allar Makes Rating Jump – Yahoo Sports

Penn State Ranks Inside Top Five in EA Sports College Football 26, QB Drew Allar Makes Rating Jump – Yahoo Sports

July 4, 2025
  • About
  • Advertise
  • Privacy & Policy
  • Contact

© 2023 earth-news.info

No Result
View All Result

© 2023 earth-news.info

No Result
View All Result

© 2023 earth-news.info

Go to mobile version