* . *
  • About
  • Advertise
  • Privacy & Policy
  • Contact
Saturday, August 16, 2025
Earth-News
  • Home
  • Business
  • Entertainment
    ‘The Rainmaker’ Premiere: Milo Callaghan Breaks Down Rudy Baylor’s ‘Misguided Valor’ – The Laconia Daily Sun

    Inside ‘The Rainmaker’ Premiere: Milo Callaghan Uncovers the Real Story Behind Rudy Baylor’s Misguided Valor

    Suicide Squad Member Gets New Origin in Absolute Flash – yahoo.com

    Suicide Squad Member Unveiled with Exciting New Origin in Absolute Flash

    I’ll miss the chaos of ‘And Just like That…’ (and Che Diaz too) – yahoo.com

    Why I’ll Truly Miss the Wild Ride of ‘And Just Like That…’ (and Che Diaz!)

    Webtoon Entertainment Stages Recovery With Disney’s Stamp of Approval – The Wall Street Journal

    Webtoon Entertainment Soars to New Heights with Disney’s Stamp of Approval

    Georgia Tech Launches Arts, Entertainment, and Creative Technologies Degree – Georgia Tech News Center

    Georgia Tech Unveils Exciting New Degree in Arts, Entertainment, and Creative Technologies

    John Davison departs from IGN Entertainment – GamesIndustry.biz

    John Davison Steps Down from IGN Entertainment Leadership

  • General
  • Health
  • News

    Cracking the Code: Why China’s Economic Challenges Aren’t Shaking Markets, Unlike America’s” – Bloomberg

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Trending Tags

    • Trump Inauguration
    • United Stated
    • White House
    • Market Stories
    • Election Results
  • Science
  • Sports
  • Technology
    Vermont famers say new technology is changing the state’s agriculture industry – News Channel 3-12

    Vermont Farmers Embrace New Technology Transforming the State’s Agriculture Industry

    Verb Technology Reports Revenue Growth Amidst Strategic Expansions – TipRanks

    Verb Technology Soars with Impressive Revenue Growth Driven by Strategic Expansions

    Midwest Technology Summit held in Fargo – WDAY Radio

    Midwest Technology Summit held in Fargo – WDAY Radio

    K1 Semiconductor Joins Chicago Quantum Exchange To Advance Wafer Technology. – Quantum Zeitgeist

    K1 Semiconductor Partners with Chicago Quantum Exchange to Revolutionize Wafer Technology

    Indirect tax transformation: Navigating change, embracing technology – Thomson Reuters tax and accounting

    Revolutionizing Indirect Tax: Embracing Technology to Navigate Change

    California’s wildfire moonshot: How new technology will defeat advancing flames – Los Angeles Times

    California’s Wildfire Revolution: How Cutting-Edge Technology Is Poised to Stop Raging Flames

    Trending Tags

    • Nintendo Switch
    • CES 2017
    • Playstation 4 Pro
    • Mark Zuckerberg
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Business
  • Entertainment
    ‘The Rainmaker’ Premiere: Milo Callaghan Breaks Down Rudy Baylor’s ‘Misguided Valor’ – The Laconia Daily Sun

    Inside ‘The Rainmaker’ Premiere: Milo Callaghan Uncovers the Real Story Behind Rudy Baylor’s Misguided Valor

    Suicide Squad Member Gets New Origin in Absolute Flash – yahoo.com

    Suicide Squad Member Unveiled with Exciting New Origin in Absolute Flash

    I’ll miss the chaos of ‘And Just like That…’ (and Che Diaz too) – yahoo.com

    Why I’ll Truly Miss the Wild Ride of ‘And Just Like That…’ (and Che Diaz!)

    Webtoon Entertainment Stages Recovery With Disney’s Stamp of Approval – The Wall Street Journal

    Webtoon Entertainment Soars to New Heights with Disney’s Stamp of Approval

    Georgia Tech Launches Arts, Entertainment, and Creative Technologies Degree – Georgia Tech News Center

    Georgia Tech Unveils Exciting New Degree in Arts, Entertainment, and Creative Technologies

    John Davison departs from IGN Entertainment – GamesIndustry.biz

    John Davison Steps Down from IGN Entertainment Leadership

  • General
  • Health
  • News

    Cracking the Code: Why China’s Economic Challenges Aren’t Shaking Markets, Unlike America’s” – Bloomberg

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Trump’s Narrow Window to Spread the Truth About Harris

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    Israel-Gaza war live updates: Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran, group says

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    PAP Boss to Niger Delta Youths, Stay Away from the Protest

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Court Restricts Protests In Lagos To Freedom, Peace Park

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Fans React to Jazz Jennings’ Inspiring Weight Loss Journey

    Trending Tags

    • Trump Inauguration
    • United Stated
    • White House
    • Market Stories
    • Election Results
  • Science
  • Sports
  • Technology
    Vermont famers say new technology is changing the state’s agriculture industry – News Channel 3-12

    Vermont Farmers Embrace New Technology Transforming the State’s Agriculture Industry

    Verb Technology Reports Revenue Growth Amidst Strategic Expansions – TipRanks

    Verb Technology Soars with Impressive Revenue Growth Driven by Strategic Expansions

    Midwest Technology Summit held in Fargo – WDAY Radio

    Midwest Technology Summit held in Fargo – WDAY Radio

    K1 Semiconductor Joins Chicago Quantum Exchange To Advance Wafer Technology. – Quantum Zeitgeist

    K1 Semiconductor Partners with Chicago Quantum Exchange to Revolutionize Wafer Technology

    Indirect tax transformation: Navigating change, embracing technology – Thomson Reuters tax and accounting

    Revolutionizing Indirect Tax: Embracing Technology to Navigate Change

    California’s wildfire moonshot: How new technology will defeat advancing flames – Los Angeles Times

    California’s Wildfire Revolution: How Cutting-Edge Technology Is Poised to Stop Raging Flames

    Trending Tags

    • Nintendo Switch
    • CES 2017
    • Playstation 4 Pro
    • Mark Zuckerberg
No Result
View All Result
Earth-News
No Result
View All Result
Home Business

How those strong jobs figures could weaken Biden’s re-election prospects

February 4, 2024
in Business
How those strong jobs figures could weaken Biden’s re-election prospects
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

President Joe Biden issued a statement Friday celebrating the latest blowout jobs report. They showed “another month of strong wage gains and employment gains of over 350,000 in January, continuing the strong growth from last year,” it read.

But below the surface these latest jobs figures may yet prove unhelpful to the president’s re-election campaign. That’s because they pose not one but two possible risks that could prove a headache in the months leading up to November: the risk of more inflation, but also the risk of a recession.

The nonfarm-payrolls numbers in January were double what economists had been expecting. So, too, was the rise in hourly earnings.

These figures are good for workers and for job hunters. But they raise the concerns that Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell’s economic medicine is not yet working the way it’s supposed to, and that the economy is not cooling off.

“Wages came in hot at 0.6%, which is the highest release since March 2022,” writes Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments, in a note to clients. “This reading, coupled with the overall jobs number, effectively takes a March rate cut off the table and should raise fresh concerns about the potential for a reacceleration of inflation.”

Context: Wage spike in January probably not an inflation warning sign. Here’s why.

Also see: March rate cut? Even May now seems remote.

You can see this very clearly in the markets’ reaction to the data. The futures markets, which bets on future interest rates, just slashed bets yet again on early interest-rate cuts. It is also cutting its estimate for rate cuts in the second half of the year. If inflation just won’t lie down, Powell may have to keep rates higher for longer.

A month ago, the futures markets foresaw the Fed cutting interest rates by about 1.25 percentage points between now and its September meeting (the last one before the election).

Its best guess now? Between 0.75 to 1 point. Maybe. 

The market now gives a 10% chance that Powell will be able to cut no more than 0.5 point. Just a day ago, it put that probability at 0%.

Then there’s the interest rate that the Fed doesn’t control (directly, anyway), but which has an even bigger influence on the economy: that of the 10-year Treasury note
BX: TMUBMUSD10Y.
The jobs figures sent the yield on the 10-year — under 3.9% just moments before — leaping above 4%.

The 10-year rate isn’t just a critical benchmark for corporate borrowing and the financial markets; it’s also the key rate used by lenders when they set interest rates on fixed 30-year mortgages. 

So the latest jobs numbers may help keep mortgage rates higher for longer, and push back the day when they start coming down. As every homeowner and buyer in America knows, today’s relatively high mortgage rates have helped freeze much of the real-estate market. Homeowners don’t want to give up those great fixed-rate mortgages they locked in during the pandemic. So many are holding off selling. And scarcity has helped drive up home prices, provoking a crisis for those — especially younger — people trying to buy.

This is not good news.

(Donald Trump, incidentally, fully understands the importance of interest rates to his election campaign. He went on Fox Business on Friday to put pressure on Powell to keep rates higher, complaining that the Fed chief was being “political” and would be cutting rates to assist the re-election of Biden — despite Powell’s having been handpicked by Trump to lead the Fed in 2017.)

President Donald Trump formally nominated Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve chairman, meaning no second term for current Chairwoman Janet Yellen. WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath explains why Mr. Trump decided to choose a new leader for the central bank. Photo: Getty

See: Initial market reaction: too hot

But if the nonfarm-payrolls data are unhelpful, so, too, are a completely different set of numbers also released Friday by the Labor Department: those from a second survey, in which the government polls households instead of employers.

These, remarkably, aren’t showing continuing labor-market strength. They are showing weakness.

Households reported employment numbers that fell last month. This jobs figure fell 31,000 in January even on a seasonally adjusted basis (meaning you take things like Christmas temporary jobs out of the picture). In fact, it’s down by 714,000 jobs since November, and, according to this survey, there are now fewer jobs in America than there were last summer.

More ominously, the household survey shows that full-time employment — a key indicator of a healthy jobs market — peaked in June. Since then it has fallen by 1.6 million (again on a seasonally adjusted basis).

Other metrics that often indicate a weak jobs market, such as the number of potential workers who have given up looking for a job, have also risen.

What’s going on? The two surveys are conducted in parallel each month. But they are totally different. One, the “establishment” survey, talks to employers. The other talks to “households” — workers and would-be workers.

ClearBridge’s Schulze warns that, while both data series are important, the second survey — households — is sometimes a better forward indicator, and, in the past, it has been quicker at catching big changes in the direction of the economy. And, he says, it has been pretty much consistently telling a more ominous story about the jobs market for a year.

“This divergence bears watching,” he writes, “as the household survey historically has been more accurate at inflection points, indicating job growth may be less impressive than it currently appears.”

In other words, if the economy heads into a recession this year after all you might expect to see it show up in the household survey before it shows up in the better-known establishment survey, which produces the nonfarm-payroll numbers.

See: Jobs report is strong, make no mistake. But it was probably inflated by January effect.

Whether the household survey is pointing toward a recession, or even stagnation, is another matter. Most economists think the U.S. will avoid a recession, and that the Fed will successfully engineer a disinflationary soft landing (even if the rate cuts will come later than many had hoped).

The betting still favors a rosy scenario.

But the household survey’s numbers certainly look strange alongside data from the establishment survey that claim we are living in an unprecedented jobs boom.

Read more about the nonfarm-payrolls report:

Soft landing for the economy? How about no landing? The U.S. is still growing fast.

‘Bang! What a way to start the new year’: Economists react to jobs report

U.S. economy showed signs of reaccelerating even before Friday’s jobs report

>>> Read full article>>>
Copyright for syndicated content belongs to the linked Source : MarketWatch – https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-those-strong-jobs-figures-could-weaken-bidens-re-election-prospects-cf075107?mod=mw_rss_topstories

Tags: businessfiguresStrong
Previous Post

Just in time for the Grammy Awards, here’s a whiskey from country star Chris Stapleton

Next Post

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions up to 196.7K from previous 184K

Box, run, crash: China’s humanoid robot games show advances and limitations – The Guardian

Box, Run, Crash: Inside China’s Humanoid Robot Games Revealing Stunning Progress and Surprising Challenges

August 16, 2025
Customers look set to bear the tariff cost burden – Axios

Rising Tariff Costs: How They Impact Your Wallet and What You Can Do

August 16, 2025
‘The Rainmaker’ Premiere: Milo Callaghan Breaks Down Rudy Baylor’s ‘Misguided Valor’ – The Laconia Daily Sun

Inside ‘The Rainmaker’ Premiere: Milo Callaghan Uncovers the Real Story Behind Rudy Baylor’s Misguided Valor

August 16, 2025
NC state employee and teacher reps say health insurance increases will hurt worker retention – NC Newsline

Rising Health Insurance Costs Jeopardize Retention of State Employees and Teachers

August 16, 2025
DC police to share information with federal immigration officers – CNN

DC Police to Collaborate with Federal Immigration Officers in New Information Sharing Initiative

August 16, 2025
China’s Ecological Civilization Shaping a Sustainable Future – 中国科技网

China’s Ecological Civilization Shaping a Sustainable Future – 中国科技网

August 16, 2025
NVIDIA, National Science Foundation Support Ai2 Development of Open AI Models to Drive US Scientific Leadership – NVIDIA Blog

NVIDIA, National Science Foundation Support Ai2 Development of Open AI Models to Drive US Scientific Leadership – NVIDIA Blog

August 16, 2025
Boise State plans to build new science research building to help with capacity needs – KTVB

Boise State Unveils Plans for New Science Research Building to Boost Capacity

August 16, 2025
Why Some Physicians Still Lead With Lifestyle-First Obesity Care Despite the GLP-1 Revolution – Medscape

Why Many Physicians Still Champion Lifestyle-First Strategies in Obesity Care Despite the GLP-1 Revolution

August 16, 2025
Vermont famers say new technology is changing the state’s agriculture industry – News Channel 3-12

Vermont Farmers Embrace New Technology Transforming the State’s Agriculture Industry

August 16, 2025

Categories

Archives

August 2025
MTWTFSS
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031
« Jul    
Earth-News.info

The Earth News is an independent English-language daily published Website from all around the World News

Browse by Category

  • Business (20,132)
  • Ecology (773)
  • Economy (796)
  • Entertainment (21,673)
  • General (16,494)
  • Health (9,834)
  • Lifestyle (806)
  • News (22,149)
  • People (797)
  • Politics (803)
  • Science (16,008)
  • Sports (21,293)
  • Technology (15,775)
  • World (778)

Recent News

Box, run, crash: China’s humanoid robot games show advances and limitations – The Guardian

Box, Run, Crash: Inside China’s Humanoid Robot Games Revealing Stunning Progress and Surprising Challenges

August 16, 2025
Customers look set to bear the tariff cost burden – Axios

Rising Tariff Costs: How They Impact Your Wallet and What You Can Do

August 16, 2025
  • About
  • Advertise
  • Privacy & Policy
  • Contact

© 2023 earth-news.info

No Result
View All Result

© 2023 earth-news.info

No Result
View All Result

© 2023 earth-news.info

Go to mobile version