How Wisconsin became the must-win state of the 2024 presidential race

There’s nothing easy about winning a statewide race in Wisconsin.

Over the past 25 years, Democrats and Republicans have braced themselves for hard-fought fights in the politically-polarized state, with most presidential contenders stumping in the state so much that voters truly feel like they’re part of the action.

Wisconsin has 10 Electoral College votes, which certainly isn’t the largest haul. (That would be California, with its 54 electoral votes.)

But the Badger State has arguably become the most consequential state on the 2024 presidential map by virtue of its Midwestern sensibilities and the highly competitive nature of its closely divided electorate, which makes it a bellwether for the politics of the United States.

In what is likely to be a contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the state is set to once again be at the center of the political universe in November.

How did Wisconsin become such a key battleground?

The growing urban-rural divide

It’s generally accepted that presidential races in Wisconsin will be decided by razor-thin margins.

In 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore won the state over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush by a 0.22% margin. Four years later, then-Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry defeated Bush in the state by a 0.38% margin.

The common denominator: Democrats romped in the urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison, while also performing well in the Driftless Area and in blue-leaning northern counties. And while Democrats did not win many of the rural counties, they remained competitive overall, allowing them to eek out slim wins statewide.

Barack Obama changed this narrative in 2008 and 2012, though, winning by broad margins of roughly 14 points and 7 points, respectively. In the first race, Obama performed powerfully across rural Wisconsin, a huge breakthrough for Democrats.

But in 2016, Trump flipped Wisconsin into the GOP column for the first time since 1984, winning by a 0.77% margin and breaking down the “blue wall” that had held for decades.

Four years later, Biden won Wisconsin for the Democrats by a similarly tight 0.63% margin.

While both parties are clearly competitive in Wisconsin, the urban-rural divide — similar to much of the United States — has only grown wider. In the Badger State, heavily gerrymandered GOP-crafted districts and conservative rule dominating Madison for more than a decade — in what’s essentially a 50-50 state — have hardened partisan levels.

What will a Trump vs. Harris matchup look like?

This year, Harris and Trump are competing for many of the same voters, but they’re also appealing heavily to their respective bases.

After Biden stepped aside as the Democratic nominee in July, Harris’ first major political rally as a presidential contender was held in West Allis, a suburb in Milwaukee County.

This was not by accident.

The vice president will need to win the county — filled with Democratic-leaning independents and voters in deep blue Milwaukee — by a sizable margin to offset what’s expected to be Trump’s strength across rural parts of the state.

Trump earlier this summer campaigned in Racine, as he hopes to carve out working-class support in an area that’s politically competitive but in recent years has leaned toward the GOP on the presidential level.

Both parties are itching to win the state: Republicans held their national convention in Milwaukee earlier in July, where Trump also tapped Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his vice presidential running mate. And Harris could potentially select Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, which would put another Midwestern voice in the vice presidential mix.

The 2024 race will be centered on the economy, and whoever makes the most persuasive argument will likely win Wisconsin.

But the messenger will matter.

Even as Biden ended his campaign, Wisconsin was the swing state where he remained best positioned ahead of the fall, as his support among white working-class voters there had not collapsed.

While it will likely take another week to get a better sense of Harris’ standing in the state, early polling indicates another close contest. A Fox News poll taken after Biden’s exit showed Trump leading Harris by one point (50% to 49%) among registered voters.

But this is Wisconsin, after all. The political suspense is here to stay.

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