Improving economic outlook drives up KiwiSaver value over breaks $100 billion

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The value of KiwiSaver pushed through $100 billion at the end of 2023 as slowing inflation and the prospect of lower interest rates lifted share investments.

Morningstar’s quarterly KiwiSaver Survey for the three months ended December showed the value of savings hit $104b, with all but two funds having positive returns.

Quarterly returns ranged between 4.9 percent for conservative funds to 7 percent for the aggressive category, while default options averaged 6.3 percent.

An improving economic and financial outlook was the driver for the improvement, Morningstar data director Greg Bunkall said.

“Markets continue to embrace moderating inflation trends, allowing scope for central banks to lower interest rates modestly while delivering a soft landing for the global economy. That sentiment is vulnerable to challenge.”

Domestically the issue was inflation and when interest rates might start to fall, despite weak growth, he said; while internationally geopolitical and electoral risks were at the fore.

“Overall we will see more volatility, with good quarters and bad quarters, but KiwiSaver’s value is its long-term horizon.”

The report said the aggressive category average had given investors an annualised return of 8.3 percent, followed by growth (7.9 percent), balanced (6.4 percent), moderate (4.6 percent), and conservative (4.3 percent).

ANZ remained the biggest single provider with $20.3b under management followed by Fisher Funds with $16b, with ASB, BT (Westpac), and Milford rounding out the top five, which collectively had about 68 percent market share.

The average annual management fee was 0.79 percent, which Bunkall said broadly matched international charges.

He said a suggestion that KiwiSaver investors should be allowed to have multiple accounts seemed an unnecessary complication, and KiwiSaver should not be allowed to develop into something like a savings kitty to be dipped in and out of.