JD Vance is faltering in the Midwest, a big problem for the GOP

Ohio Sen. JD Vance’s national introduction as former President Donald Trump’s running mate has been less than ideal.

Vance, known for his best-selling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy,” was elected to office less than two years ago. Many Republicans have long viewed him as a future face of the party, given his Midwestern background and his appeal to many MAGA adherents.

But on the heels of a CNN analysis that showed Vance was the least-liked non-incumbent vice-presidential nominee in at least 44 years, the network also revealed that the GOP lawmaker has a double-digit unfavorable rating with voters across the Midwest.

According to CNN, Vance had a 28% favorable rating and a 44% unfavorable rating — or a minus 16-point favorability rating — among voters surveyed in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin in July.

For Republicans banking on Vance to help boost the party across the Midwest, his standing is far below where he’ll need to be in order to win over swing voters in key states like Michigan and Wisconsin.

CNN data reporter Harry Enten during an appearance last week also pointed to data showing that Vance had a minus 5-point favorability rating after the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

“The people who know him best, the region that knows him best, they like him even less than America likes him,” he told the network’s Erin Burnett.

If JD Vance’s popularity in his home region (-16 pts) is any sign, it won’t get better for Vance nationally (where he’s historically unpopular).

Also, Vance’s favorable rating is just 5% with undecideds (i.e. not for Harris/Trump) in the prez race. His unfavorable rating is 29%. pic.twitter.com/WmDhN1vchl

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 26, 2024

Vance is still early in his political career, but the Trump campaign needs him to move the needle now.

Even in GOP-leaning Ohio, Vance vastly underperformed other statewide Republicans on the ballot during his 2022 Senate race.

While Republican Gov. Mike DeWine won reelection by 25 points that year, Vance defeated his opponent — then-Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan — by only 6 percentage points.

Democrats have needled Republicans over Vance’s selection, arguing that his views on issues like abortion will repel female voters. But Trump has so far stood behind his vice-presidential pick.

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