U.S. stocks rose sharply Monday, as investors looked ahead to earnings season and unwound flight-to-safety trades inspired late last week by fears the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into a wider conflict.
What’s happening
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
rose 342 points, or 1%, to 34,012.
The S&P 500
SPX
was up 48 points, or 1.1%, at 4,376.
The Nasdaq Composite
COMP
advanced 164 points, or 1.2%, to trade at 13,572.
While stocks had finished mostly lower on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke a streak of three consecutive weekly losses and the S&P 500 scored a second straight weekly gain. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2% for the week.
What’s driving markets
Stocks gained as traditional havens, including gold, the U.S. dollar and Treasurys, all lost ground. Monday’s fall in Treasury prices meant a renewed rise in 2-
BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
through 30-year yields
BX:TMUBMUSD30Y.
Meanwhile, oil prices were lower, after having jumped on Friday to their highest since the Hamas attack on Israel earlier this month. The U.S. benchmark
CL00,
-1.23%
was down 0.9% at below $87 a barrel. Crude prices have remained below 2023 highs set in late September before the Hamas attack. Analysts said oil will remain a bellwether for other asset prices.
See: Oil prices in spotlight as Iran warns of escalation of Israel-Hamas war
Equities held up on Monday despite the Middle East conflict “because the war is seen as having no major impact on U.S. markets yet unless it broadens out,” said Eric Sterner, chief investment officer at Apollon Wealth Management, which manages roughly $5.3 billion from Mount Pleasant, S.C.
There are also expectations that U.S. companies will “break out” of the recent earnings recession, Sterner said via phone.
More of Wall Street’s big banks will report results on Tuesday, with Bank of America
BAC,
+0.66%,
Goldman Sachs
GS,
+1.44%
and BNY Mellon
BK,
+1.20%
stepping up to the plate. Big tech results will start with Netflix
NFLX,
+1.75%
and Tesla
TSLA,
+1.38%
on Wednesday.
Earnings Watch: Wall Street’s Q3 expectations have been all over the place. Now, a swing to profit growth is ‘likely’ — with a bigger rebound next year
But jitters around the prospect of a broader war in the Middle East were likely to remain at least a background concern, analysts and investors said.
The Israel-Hamas war has a more than 50% chance of drawing in militant groups from Lebanon or Syria, or producing a direct conflict with Iran — creating more oil disruptions than financial markets currently think, according to Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist for Montreal-based BCA Research.
Read: Israel-Gaza conflict threatens to reawaken U.S. inflation, investors worry
Israel continued to pound the Gaza Strip ahead of an expected ground invasion of the Hamas-controlled enclave. The prospect of a ground incursion has drawn warnings from Iran, which in turn was being told by Western leaders and diplomats not to escalate the conflict.
“The market is realizing that most military shocks since World War II have been local in nature, allowing the market to rebound quite swiftly after the initial selloff,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA Research in New York. “In addition, third-quarter earnings, like 54 of the past 56 quarters, should see actual results exceed end-of-quarter estimates. This should add to investor confidence,” he said via phone.
The S&P 500 has endured an earnings recession from the fourth quarter of 2022 through the second quarter of this year, though the actual data shows that it’s been shallower than analysts had expected, according to Stovall.
The New York Fed’s Empire State business-conditions index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state, edged down 6.5 points in October to negative 4.6, the regional Fed bank said Monday. Economists had expected a negative 6 reading, according to a survey by the Wall Street Journal. Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
was up roughly 9 basis points at almost 4.72% as traders remained open to the idea that sturdy U.S. economic data and signs of sticky inflation will keep interest rates higher for longer.
Companies in focus
Drugstore chain Rite Aid Corp. RAD, facing billions of dollars of debt related to opioid lawsuits, filed for bankruptcy Sunday. Shares were halted on the New York Stock Exchange.
Pfizer Inc.
PFE,
+3.52%
shares jumped 4.4% after executives outlined cost reductions first announced late Friday. The cost-cutting program, designed to deliver savings of at least $3.5 billion, “will touch all parts of the business and all regions,” Pfizer Chief Financial Officer Dave Denton said on a call with analysts.
Shares of Lululemon Athletica Inc.
LULU,
+10.51%
jumped 9.9% after index provider S&P Dow Jones Indices said the stock will join the S&P 500 on Wednesday.
Jamie Chisholm contributed.
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