Mashaba: Pundits calling Election’24 wrong; ActionSA surging; DA losing W Cape majority

ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba says on-the-ground feedback reflects a very different Election’24 picture to one propagated by incumbents and the media. He points to ActionSA’s double digit vote shares in rural by-elections complementing its widely acknowledged strong position in urban areas, especially Soweto where he reckons the party dominates. Mashaba predicts South Africans will punish the chaotic ANC/EFF coalitions; says the DA will lose its Western Cape majority and is making a strategic error shunning the Patriotic Alliance and its leader Gayton McKenzie.

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Relevant timestamps from the interview

00:00 – Introduction
01:30 – Trouble in Ekurhuleni
03:32 – Why did neither the ANC nor the EFF appoint their own mayor?
10:08 – MK and Jacob Zuma
12:19 – His National goal
18:02 – Gatens McKenzie
18:55 – Western Cape
20:23 – Conclusion

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Edited transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___

Alec Hogg: Well, it’s a week to go to BNC#6, 500 people converging on Hermanus. Among them, Herman Mashaba, one of the keynote speakers and the leader of ActionSA. We’ll talk a little bit about the conference, but more interesting right now is the chaos that has erupted in Ekurhuleni. We saw punch-ups and fistfights on social media with the Red Overall Brigade and the ANC no longer friends, exiting their coalition. It’s all because of what you had to do, Herman. You called a vote of no confidence in the mayor. Now, I’d like to discuss your journey into politics. As a businessman, you’ve expressed amazement at the dirtiness of politics. But if you call a vote of no confidence in a coalition with over 50%, in other words, the ANC and the EFF together, ruling a corollary, and you’re misruling, what motivated you to call that vote? Did you know that the ANC was ready to leave that coalition?

Herman Mashaba: Not really, Alec. This issue has nothing to do with ANC-EFF conflict. For us, it’s about the ANC and EFF appointing someone incompetent. They lack the talent themselves, but subjecting Ekurhuleni residents to such incompetence from the current mayor was unacceptable. Our team, though lacking the numbers, felt it was our responsibility as public representatives to ask the majority parties to appoint a capable person to run the city, not someone as compromised as the current mayor. We suggested, “Give someone else a chance; you’ve got the numbers.” Now, instead of making a decision, there’s fighting. It’s unfortunate, but it might provide South Africans insight into an ANC-EFF coalition, a scenario we could face at the national level if people don’t vote.

This surprising situation might offer South Africans the insight to work harder to avoid ending up with an EFF-ANC government at the national level, which could lead to chaos. So, I think all South Africans need to work together to ensure that doesn’t happen.

Alec Hogg: But why did neither the ANC nor the EFF appoint their own mayor? Why go and get someone from a tiny political party to rule the place?

Herman Mashaba: Well, they can’t get along, as much as they’ve succeeded in the city of Johannesburg. Unfortunately, I really wish I could understand, but it is what it is. I live personally in peace because what we’re witnessing is expected. These people aren’t about public service; they’re in politics for personal motives, next to state resources, and nothing else. The unpatriotic, uncaring nature of these two political parties is evident. We’re in big trouble, and their fights can only get worse. We need to work harder to mobilise South Africans, ensuring a disaster doesn’t happen.

That is what we need to do because one thing that’s going to really happen is that ANC, in 2019, achieved 47% being voted in by 7 million. So, if one looks at those numbers over the last few elections, ANC, even with the prayers yesterday, won’t get 8 million people voting for them. The challenge is how to get the 20 million potential voters, mostly Black South Africans, out to vote. I’m calling on Black South Africans to work together to avoid South Africa becoming another failed state.

We can’t live in a country like this. There’s going to be more chaos in the event of an ANC-EFF coalition because ANC will not get anywhere close to 40%.

Alec Hogg: Herman, those are good numbers, and thank you for unpacking them for us. But the one thing you have not put into the discussion is MK, Jacob Zuma. So far, that party has done very well in by-elections, particularly in rural KZN. It’s likely they’ll pick up votes.

Herman Mashaba: Well, no, that’s the only place they can get. They’re not getting votes from any other party except mainly from the ANC, followed by the EFF. We must encourage them not to encroach into the IFP voter base.

Alec Hogg: How does that change your brain’s trust at Action SA or for the multi-party coalition? Because it appears as though Zuma is taking votes away from the ANC and the EFF, which could make things tricky.

Herman Mashaba: We were confident that IFP will emerge as the biggest party, and parties like us, with just around 10% of KZN voter base, can help put them into government. That’s the scenario we’re hoping for, but MK should not encroach into the IFP voter base. They are mainly taking votes from the ANC and EFF.

They will eat into the ANC-EFF voter block, roughly 10 million. You’ve got 27.7 million registered voters, and this block won’t vote for these three parties. The challenge for us, as ActionSA, the only party appealing to them, is reaching them. Being a three-and-a-half-year-old party, we’re still relatively new.

Alec Hogg: Why not focus on Gauteng as Action SA, where you are strong? Why this national objective?

Herman Mashaba: Well, unless you want to allow ANC to be back at the national level, because what you’re proposing is allowing ANC at the national level. As Action SA, we are confident we will govern Gauteng. The ANC can forget about it. But how do we ignore Western Cape votes that are there for the taking? Eastern Cape, Limpopo, and so forth. Not contesting any province would be tantamount to not voting. It’s like voting for the ANC. That’s the last thing I’m going to do.

Alec Hogg: I thought we’d hear something along those lines, and you’ve already shown it in Nongoma, as you said, where you do contest in other areas. What about Polokwane, in Seshego?

Herman Mashaba: We contested a by-election in Malema’s birthplace. We got just under 10% of the votes, becoming the third-biggest party, dropping both ANC and EFF.

Well, right now, it helps me to know that residents of Johannesburg are subjected to an EFF-ANC coalition when Gayton and the Patriotic Alliance are willing to work with us. Unfortunately, without the support of the DA, we can’t. Despite proposing various solutions, including a chance for the DA to be in a powerful position, they refuse. We are willing to work with the PA, be held accountable, and ensure no corruption. But the DA refuses, and it’s disheartening for residents of Johannesburg.

Alec Hogg: What about at a national level? Do you trust Gayton McKenzie to be a force for good if he were to be the kingmaker for the MPC, and could you convince your MPC partners to go along with it?

Herman Mashaba: Well, I will. I think all the parties except the DA are refusing to get Gayton to join us. Chances of needing the PA are high unless we are willing to give the government to the ANC and EFF. There’s a good likelihood of a coalition government in the Western Cape, and ActionSA will be a player. It’s up to the DA to decide.

Alec Hogg: Just explain that in the Western Cape, a coalition, in other words, the DA will come below 50.

Herman Mashaba: In the Western Cape, we already have a coalition government. No one is going to get the outright majority. It’s academic to give exact numbers now, but we have a great candidate for the Western Cape Premier.