Mexican Peso drops as upbeat US PMIs offset Banxico Minutes

Mexican Peso drops versus US Dollar amid GDP slowdown and Banxico Minutes highlighting inflationary pressure.
Banxico revises inflation outlook and expects convergence to 3% target by Q4 2025.
Mexico’s quarterly GDP exceeds expectations but slowed down; mid-month inflation data reflects ongoing disinflation.
US economic data shows resilience with fewer unemployment claims and strong activity in manufacturing and service sectors.

The Mexican Peso tumbles against the US Dollar on Thursday amid a busy economic docket in Mexico and the United States. Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shows the economy slowing, while business activity in the US improved. That, alongside the release of Banxico’s Meeting Minutes, exerts pressure on the Mexican currency. The USD/MXN trades at 16.74, up 0.53 %.

The Bank of Mexico revealed its latest Meeting Minutes. The board revealed that headline inflation most likely edged up due to persistent inflationary pressure in the services sector. Regarding underlying prices, “Most members noted that core inflation continued decreasing at the margin, having declined from 4.64[%] to 4.37% between February and April.”

In the minutes, all the members expect inflation to converge to Banxico’s target of 3% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Alongside that, “All members highlighted that, considering that inflationary shocks are foreseen to take longer to dissipate, the forecasts for headline and core inflation have been revised upwards.”

Earlier, the National Statistics Agency (INEGI for its acronym in Spanish) revealed that GDP figures exceeded forecasts on a quarterly basis, but on a yearly basis they decelerated as expected in the first quarter of 2024.

At the same time, headline inflation for the first half of May slowed on a monthly basis but increased on an annual basis, compared to the last reading. Mid-month core inflation was aligned with the consensus in monthly and yearly numbers, depicting the evolution of the disinflation process.

Across the border, the US economic docket was also busy. Unemployment claims came in below estimates, while business activity in the manufacturing and services segments smashed the consensus, expanding sharply and showing the US economy’s resilience.

Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso depreciates as core inflation slows and US business activity reaccelerates

Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2024 was 1.6% YoY as expected, down from Q4 2023’s 2.5% growth. On a quarterly basis, the country expanded 0.3% above estimates and the previous reading of 0.1%.
Mid-month inflation for May was 4.78% YoY, up from 4.63% estimate. On a monthly basis, it decreased from 0.09% to -0.21%. Core inflation for the same period dipped from 4.39% to 4.31% YoY, as expected, and edged down from 0.16% to 0.15% MoM, in line with consensus.
Across the border, the May Citibanamex survey showed that 26 analysts estimate Banxico will lower rates at the upcoming meeting on June 27. Eight estimate the Mexican central bank will lower rates until the second half of 2024. Inflation expectations for 2024 were revised upward from 4.17% to 4.21%, while underlying prices are expected to fall from 4.10% to 4.07%.
Initial Jobless Claims in the US reached 215K in the week ending May 18, below the estimate and the previous reading of 220K and 223K, respectively.
S&P Global revealed May’s final readings of US PMIs. The Manufacturing PMI expanded to 50.9, exceeding estimates and April’s 50.0, while the Services PMI crushed forecasts and April’s 51.3, improving to 54.8. The Composite PMI improved from 51.3 to 54.4, exceeding forecasts of 51.1.
The latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes highlighted, “Various participants mentioned willingness to tighten policy further should risks to outlook materialize and make such action appropriate.” Regarding the tightness of the monetary policy, officials remained uncertain, adding that “it would take longer than previously anticipated to gain greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably to 2%.”
Data from the Chicago Board of Trade shows investors are expecting 27 basis points (bps) of Fed easing, down from 31 bps estimated on Wednesday toward the end of 2024.

Technical analysis: Mexican Peso loses ground as USD/MXN hovers near 16.70

Despite remaining downwardly biased, the USD/MXN has printed three days of consecutive gains, opening the door to challenging higher prices. Once the exotic pair breached 16.60, momentum showed that selling pressure was waning as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) aims for the 50-midline.

For a bullish continuation, USD/MXN must clear the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 16.76. A breach of the latter would exacerbate a rally toward the 100-day SMA at 16.91, followed by the 17.00 psychological level. In that event, the next stop would be the 200-day SMA at 17.17.

Conversely, a drop below 16.52 could exacerbate a challenge of the 16.50 psychological level, ahead of the year-to-date low of 16.25.

Economic Indicator

1st half-month Core Inflation

The 1st half-month core inflation index released by the Bank of Mexico is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services, excluding taxes and energy. The purchase power of Mexican Peso is dragged down by inflation. The inflation index is a key indicator since it is used by the central bank to set interest rates. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Mexican Peso, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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