NOAA Predicts Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Be Worst In Decades

Topline

With just one week to go before the official start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting one of the busiest storm seasons the agency has ever forecast—following a string of devastating storm seasons.

NOAA satellite imagery shows Hurricane Idalia approaching Florida’s Gulf Coast last August.

Associated Press

Key Facts

In its 2024 forecast, NOAA predicts between 17 and 25 named storms, including between eight and 13 hurricanes and four to seven major ones (category 3 and above, with maximum wind speeds of at least 111 mph), outpacing the average of 14 observed per year over the past three decades.

NOAA attributes the dismal outlook to near-record warm sea surface temperatures, as well as the return of the weather phenomenon known as La Niña, which in addition to providing cooler temperatures in the Pacific, also lessens a wind shear effect in the Atlantic, reducing disruptive wind speeds that could offset hurricane formation.

The agency predicted between 12 and 17 named storms in the Atlantic last year, 14 to 21 in 2022, between 13 and 20 in 2021, and 13 to 19 in 2020.

Meteorologists at AccuWeather warned in March the 2024 Atlantic season could be “explosive,” warning of a storm season that could hit a “record-setting pace” with as many as 25 named storms, well above the historical average—AccuWeather meteorologists expect four to seven of those storms to make landfall on the U.S.

If both forecasts hold true, the 2024 season would surpass the 19 named storms observed last year, as well as the 14 in 2022—they would also outpace the seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes recorded in 2023.

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Surprising Fact

Only one Atlantic hurricane made landfall in the U.S. last year. Hurricane Idalia caused widespread devastation as a Category 3 storm, pummeling through Florida and Georgia last August, and left up to $20 billion in damage, according to an estimate from Moody’s Analytics. Two tropical storms als hit the U.S. in 2023: Harold, which made landfall in Texas, and Ophelia, in North Carolina.

Big Number

$112.9 billion. That’s the estimated U.S. damage from Hurricane Ian, a Category 4 hurricane that swept through Florida in September 2022, the most deadly in the hurricane-prone state in over 100 years. Ian, the biggest storm of the busy 2022 season, left a trail of catastrophic flooding, damaged piers, widespread power outages, killing nearly 150 people, according to Florida’s Medical Examiners Commission.

What To Watch For

The hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and lasts through the end of November, though hurricanes can come outside that timeframe. As of Thursday, however, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is not forecasting any Atlantic hurricanes or tropical storms over the next 48 hours.