Northern Lights May Be Visible Again Tonight: Updated Aurora Borealis Forecast

Topline

Although the geomagnetic storm that illuminated the night sky was expected to end on Tuesday, forecasters are now predicting more solar activity throughout the day—meaning the Northern Lights could still appear in the sky for millions of people across North America. (See Wednesday’s updated forecast here.)

The Northern Lights could appear as far south as Maine, New York and the upper Midwest, forecasters … [+] predicted on Tuesday.

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Key Facts

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center issued another geomagnetic storm watch for Tuesday, warning that the Sun will bombard the Earth with more solar material.

These eruptions, known as coronal mass ejections, can cause the Northern Lights to appear when they interact with Earth’s magnetic field.

Although Tuesday’s Northern Lights will likely not be as vivid and widespread as the dazzling displays over the lower continental U.S. over the weekend, they have a high chance of appearing for some parts of North America.

NOAA has already recorded multiple solar flares, x-ray events and radio emissions associated with coronal mass ejections on Tuesday.

The aurora on Tuesday night is expected to have a K-index as high as Kp 5—meaning the lights will appear brighter than usual and produce more “auroral activity (motions and formations),” according to NOAA.

Where Will The Northern Lights Be Visible Tonight?

Although it’s difficult for astronomers to predict exactly where the Northern Lights will appear, a large portion of the northern U.S. could be within the view line tonight. According to NOAA, the Northern Lights have a high chance of appearing for most of Alaska and northern Canada. The agency is also predicting they could appear as far south as Maine, Vermont, New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, the Dakotas, Montana, Idaho, and Washington.

What To Watch For

Aurora borealis chasers have the best chance to see the lights if they travel north towards the magnetic pole, avoid cities and other sources of light, position themselves on hilltops and monitor weather forecasts for ideal viewing conditions. The Lights are most active in the hours around midnight, typically between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m.

Key Background

Beginning on Friday, the Earth began to experience what forecasters called an “historic” geomagnetic storm, an event likely caused by a massive sunspot known as Region 3664. Geomagnetic storms like the one currently going on are more common during the solar maximum—the moment when the Sun’s magnetic poles flip, which is associated with increased sunspots and solar flares. The solar maximum occurs every 11 years, but the exact timing is hard to predict in advance. Forecasters at NOAA predicted last year that the current cycle will peak between January and October of 2024.

Tangent

On Tuesday afternoon, Region 3664 unleashed the largest solar flare recorded during the current storm, according to NOAA. The flare, which was detected around 1 p.m. Eastern, was an X-class solar flare measured at a X8.7 on NASA’s scale. It also measured an R3 on NOAA’s radio blackout scale—meaning it had a strong chance to deliver a “wide area blackout” of high-frequency radio communication on Earth’s sunlit side.