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Ethereum ETFs launched with the Grayscale (ETHE) product now totalling over $800m USD in sales.
Bitcoin price at the midpoint of a four month range.
US economic growth data releases tonight, and inflation metrics tomorrow night.
The newly launched Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the US saw a strong start, achieving $1 billion in trade volume on the first day. Key buyers included Bitwise (ETHW) with $204 million and BlackRock (ETHA) with $266 million in net inflows.
However, we did witness large outflows from the Grayscale (ETHE) product with -$484m US yesterday and -$326m US today. This could be due to its higher fees compared to newer ETF offerings.
A similar trend was observed with the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF, which also saw net outflows from January to May following its conversion.
Hot Take
The coming days and weeks will matter. Assuming this selling pressure from Grayscale continues, will the market continue to absorb it? Or could we see up to Billions of dollars of ETH continue to flood the ETF market in the near future?
Keep an eye on this website yourself to track daily flows.
Macro
Tonight, we have Advanced US GDP data releasing at 10:30pm AEST. The current expectations are for a 2.0% reading, with a previous reading of 1.4%.
Friday, we have inflation data, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released at 10:30 pm AEST. 0.2% is expected, and 0.1% was the previous result.
These data points may cause volatility, especially if results are to land outside of what the market expects.
Related: Hashdex Files for Spot Crypto Index ETF, the First Multi Asset Fund in United States
Bitcoin – BTC
In the fourteen days since the 8th of July, we have witnessed the market regain more than 50% of the range that Bitcoin has been trading in since March this year.
Having now reached just above this multi-month midpoint, we are starting to see a general cooling off in price movements. Below is an analysis looking at some key levels.
Source: TradingView
Bullish Scenario
Seeing bulls defend the previous lows (grey box) from last week, and we see a move back to the upside.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold these key lows, and continue to move higher in the coming days, could result in a further move lower. The monthly open is just below the current price at $62,669 USD.
My Thoughts
Price across the market has run up quite quickly, relative to recent price action. It wouldn’t be unimaginable from here if we see some chop before the market chooses its next direction.
Related: Aussies Lead Memecoin Adoption, ETH Dominates Portfolios New Report Shows
Bittensor – TAO
A top performer in the AI sector, TAO is currently retesting resistance at the midpoint, when we look at price using a Fibonacci Extension measurement from its previous high to the current low. Below are two scenarios of what could come next using Fibonacci measurements.
Source: Tradingview
Bullish Scenario
Bulls continue to push higher from current prices and we start to move above the ‘golden-fib’ ratio of 0.618 ($380.50). From there we could then target previous highs of $491.10.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to show any interest from buyers at these levels could draw the price back down towards the previous structure highs before the most recent breakout. This would be around $275.
Popcat – POPCAT
A rising meme-coin on the Solana ecosystem, Popcat has been on my watchlist these last few weeks as it’s continued to outperform most of the market. It also is yet to be listed on major exchanges, and is in the top 100 assets when ranked by market cap.
While potentially controversial, throughout this whole recent rally memecoins have continued to lead amongst other market sectors.
Below is some analysis looking at the market structure of previous highs and lows.
Source: TradingView
Bullish Scenario
Bulls start to step in now at these recent lows, and we start to trend higher. We could then see previous highs retested.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to find buyers at these lows, and a move down further back towards previous highs.
My Thoughts
Altcoins are at a very interesting point right now, there is the chance that if Bitcoin were to track sideways from here we continue to see rallies across some of the mid to smaller-cap assets. This is behaviour I have seen in the past. However, if we continue to see any sharp sell-offs on Bitcoin or Ethereum, it could spell pain and double-digit losses for altcoins.
My focus is again back to Ethereum ETF flows these coming days.
See you all again next week.
Keep up to date.
Stay informed and connected! I’m excited to announce my new YouTube channel, Crypto with Pav, where I dive into the latest trends in cryptocurrency, offering insights on what’s coming next and highlighting news and technical structure I believe is crucial.
I’m also on X.
Cheers!
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