The nuclear balance of terror between America and Russia, and now also America and China, attracts the most concern about an atomic apocalypse. But the simmering conflict between India and Pakistan — both of which are nuclear powers — is no less dangerous.
Now there are indications that Pakistan is arming its JF-17 fighters with nuclear-capable cruise missiles. The JF-17s are replacing older French-made Mirage jets that Pakistan has tasked for nuclear strike missions, according to the Federation of American Scientists.
“These developments, along with heightened tensions in the region, have raised concerns about accelerated arms racing as well as new risks for escalation in a potential conflict between India and Pakistan, especially since India is also increasing the size and improving the capabilities of its nuclear arsenal,” wrote FAS analyst Eliana Johns.
Not surprisingly given Pakistan’s secretiveness over its nuclear program, the evidence for nuclear-armed JF-17s is somewhat circumstantial. Pakistan’s current nuclear strike aircraft are the 1960s-vintage Mirage V, armed with nuclear bombs, and the Mirage III, which has been tested with the Ra’ad cruise missile, which can be armed with nuclear or conventional warheads. And a JF-17 in flight was recently photographed carrying what appears to be a Ra’ad missile.
However, the Pakistani Air Force has at least 130 of the JF-17 Thunder, a joint project between Pakistan and China that created a fighter that is equivalent to the US F-16 (Pakistan also operates 75 F-16s). The aircraft, designated the FC-1 Xiaolong (“Fierce Dragon”) in Chinese service, first flew in 2003.
Suspicions that the JF-17 would be armed with Ra’ad missiles were mostly speculative, until a photo surfaced recently. “During rehearsals for the 2023 Pakistan Day Parade (which was subsequently canceled), an image surfaced of a JF-17 Thunder Block II carrying what was reported to be a Ra’ad ALCM,” according to FAS. “Notably, this was the first time such a configuration had been observed in public.”
The Federation of American Scientists “was able to purchase the original image,” and compared the Ra’ad mounted on the JF-17 with previous images. One question was which version of the Ra’ad had been fitted to the JF-17. The Ra’ad I (also known as the Hatf-8) is a subsonic air-launched cruise missile with an estimated range of more than 200 miles, and corresponds to other models such as the Europe’s Storm Shadow, according to the CSIS Missile Threat defense site. The newer Ra’ad II reportedly has a range of almost 400 miles. Pakistan is also developing the Taimoor, an anti-ship version of the Ra’ad.
Using tools such as Photoshop Vanishing Point to analyze the images, FAS concluded that JF-17 had been armed with the older Ra’ad I. If true, this would put numerous targets within western and northern India within range of nuclear or conventional cruise missiles.
“There are several air bases in Pakistan located near the border,” Johns told Business Insider. “The aircraft would be able to scramble and fly to dispersal bases within Pakistan’s borders to get closer to potential targets inside India at a range of 350 to 600 kilometers if desired.”
There is still considerable uncertainty about the exact capabilities of the Ra’ad. “Observing the differences between the Ra’ad-I and Ra’ad-II missiles raises a few questions,” FAS noted. “How was Pakistan able to nearly double the range of the Ra’ad from an estimated 350 kilometers to 550 kilometers and then to 600 kilometers for the newest version without noticeably changing the size of the missile to carry more fuel? The answer could possibly be that the Ra’ad-II engine design is more efficient, the construction components are made from lighter-weight materials or the payload has been reduced.”
Thus for now, Pakistan’s air-launched cruise missile capability will remain a mystery. It is “unclear whether either of the Ra’ad systems has been deployed, but this may only be a question of when rather than if,” FAS said. “Once deployed, it remains to be seen if Pakistan will also continue to retain a nuclear gravity bomb capability for its aircraft or transition to stand-off cruise missiles only.”
And though the JF-17 is a joint Sino-Pakistani aircraft, Johns doubts that China will try to restrain Pakistan from modifying it into a nuclear strike aircraft. “China and Pakistan have enjoyed economic and technical partnership for a long time,” Johns said. “It is suspected that Pakistan received a blueprint for its first nuclear device from China. The JF-17s were not built for a nuclear mission in the Chinese air force. Nonetheless, Pakistan seems to be preparing it for this capability since the Mirage III and V aircraft are aging.”
Pakistan’s main delivery system for its estimated 170 nuclear weapons will continue to be ballistic missiles, which include at least six models of road-mobile rockets. But extending the range of Pakistani aerial nuclear weapons will only exacerbate the potential for nuclear war. Both Pakistan and India are already developing multiple warhead, or MIRV, versions of their ballistic missiles, and Pakistan is working on short-range, dual-use ballistic missiles. India and Pakistan have fought four wars — and numerous border clashes — since the Indian subcontinent was partitioned in 1947. In 2019, Pakistan made veiled nuclear threats after Indian aircraft bombed Kashmiri militant bases in Pakistan.
“This context presents an even greater need for transparency and understanding about the quality and intentions behind states’ nuclear programs to prevent mischaracterization and misunderstanding,” Johns concluded.
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.
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